Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
636 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

...Rain on the way tonight...

Amplified, yet progressive, large scale NOAM pattern continues, with
stout mid and upper level ridge axis in the process of settling
itself directly overhead, all-the-while just as impressive deep
trough axis rotates east across the High Plains. The former is
bringing another quiet and seasonably chilly night across the North
Woods, with mainly clear skies and temperatures once again making a
run through the 40s (some "lucky" locales likely to drop into the
upper 30s by sunrise). Further west, rather respectable moisture
plume punching north into the Upper Mississippi Valley, running just
ahead and along of a developing central plains cold front. An
elongated band of showers and embedded thunderstorms are within this
moisture plume, some of which are producing some locally heavy rain.

As mentioned, despite amplification, whole pattern looks to remain
fairly progressive through tonight, forcing current overhead ridge
to succumb to that approaching wave and cold front heading through
very late today, and especially tonight. That attendant moisture
axis will only increase in scale, setting its sites directly on our
area during the overnight. Rain, some heavy, looks like a given,
with even some embedded thunderstorms. Spatial and temporal
resolution of this band of wet weather remains the primary forecast
concern through the short term.

For the most part, today looks like another spectacular northern
Michigan early fall day, with that upper level ridge remaining in
control until very late. Top-down moisture advection gets underway
this morning, leading to slowly increasing high and mid clouds from
west to east. Departure of surface high off to our east allows
southeast winds to further develop, helping drive some modest low
level waa. Temperatures will respond accordingly, likely nearing or
just topping 70 degrees for most, which is a few degrees above
normal. Moisture may get just deep enough to bring some initial
light showers into eastern Upper and along Lake Michigan by very
late in the day.

Forcing ramps up considerably tonight as strong shortwave trough
digs into the northwest Lakes by morning. Attendant moisture plume
is impressive indeed within stout h8-h7 theta-e ridge what plows
overhead, with pwat values making a run at an inch and a half during
the early morning. Very sharp and deep convergence will work over
this moisture plume, so would expect upstream shower coverage and
intensity to continue to go upscale this evening, becoming a well
organized plume of moderate to heavy rain as it pivots across our
area tonight. Will likely see a few embedded thunderstorms given
amount of forcing and moisture. Instability and mid level lapse
rates are limited, so definitely don`t see any severe weather
concerns. Window for heaviest rains at any particular location looks
to be on the order of a few hours, helping keep rain totals in check
some. Still think most of the area will receive at least a half an
inch of rain, with some locally heavier totals up to and perhaps
over an inch a real possibility. Dry slot punches into western
sections of the area by sunrise, likely bringing a temporary
reprieve to the wet weather.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Simply an ugly forecast upcoming to begin the work week and possibly
well beyond. Extended models are having a heck of a time deciphering
the movement and timing of the upper level low moving across the
region next week. The main forecast concerns revolve around pops and
temperatures through the period.

Monday into Tuesday night...The surface cold front continues to
blast across the region early Monday. Winds will be gusty behind it
and likely remain so all the way into Tuesday (at least). Meanwhile,
upper level low pressure sinks slowly southward across the region
and supplies some moisture as well as increasing over lake
instability. So expect scattered to numerous showers across the
region as a result. Temperatures will be mainly in the 50s for highs
and lows in the 40s and the wind will make it feel pretty chilly.

Wednesday through Saturday...The upper level low will likely slip by
to our south Thursday but the ECMWF and UKMET insist that it will
retrograde northwestward later in the week into next weekend. This
possible trend will have to be watched carefully because right now
consensus model guidance keeps moisture from this system off to our
south. If the European guidance is correct (it seems a little odd
but not unheard of) then will have to reintroduce pops possibly as
early as Friday. The only day that seems like a slam dunk to be nice
at this point is Thursday as clouds will likely be slow to
dissipate/depart on Wednesday. Not as cool but we shall see if the
ridging/warmer temperatures of the GFS turn out to be right.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR conditions today under a slowly lowering cloud deck.
Approaching cold front will likely bring an organized band of rain
from west to east across the sites tonight, some of which could be
briefly heavy, resulting in short periods of vis restriction.
Lower cigs will quickly follow this band of rain, resulting in
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions by early Monday morning.

Mostly light southeast to south winds through this taf period.
Brief window of low level wind shear this evening as low level jet
passes overhead.


Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

A rather prolonged period of gusty winds and choppy waves kicks off
today, and continues right through Tuesday. Southeast winds will be
on the increase today, with winds veering south and eventually
southwest tonight. Winds are expected to become west and continue to
increase in speed Monday into Tuesday as a strong upper level
disturbance passes overhead and over-water conditions become
increasingly unstable. SCA`s issued earlier for all waters will
remain, and will definitely need to be on the lookout for gale
conditions by later Monday and Monday night, especially across
northern Lake Michigan.

Showers, and perhaps even a few rumbles of thunder, will be common
tonight through Tuesday. Deep lake induced convective cloud depths
and passage of that upper level disturbance will be favorable for
waterspouts, with perhaps the most favorable area for these to occur
being across Lake Superior and northern Lake Huron where winds will
be a touch lighter.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for LSZ322.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321.



LONG TERM...Sullivan
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