Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1134 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Issued at 942 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Very little in the way of an update. Scattered light rain and snow
was crossing nrn lower Michigan, ahead of a sfc trough laid out
from far NW lower through central Lake Michigan. Moisture was not
supposed to be into the -10C isotherm for ice crystal activation
and snow/light showers (otherwise freezing drizzle/drizzle), but
one possibility is that the passing mid cloud seen on satellite
from SW to NE has been able to seed the low clouds still stuck
under a strong inversion. A more likely scenario is that the top
of the moisture is getting some ice activation, around 3500 feet,
which extends into the -8C to -9C range. Either way, this
precipitation is not expected to have any impacts, as it exits NE
lower around/shortly after midnight. Still looking for a late
night breaking up of the lower cloud, leading to a decent day


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

...Dry weather returns to start the weekend...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Quick moving wave responsible for this
mornings round of mixed precipitation now off to our northeast,
leaving behind plenty of clouds and just a bit of drizzle. Passing
"cold" front doing little for the temperature department, with
current readings in the 30s and lower 40s running several degrees
above normal for this time of year. High pressure building through
the Northern Plains will build in quickly behind this front,
controlling our weather with dry conditions and a seasonably mild
airmass to start the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Very light precip concerns
into this evening. Cloud and temperature trends through the near

Details: Lingering low level moisture and passage of secondary
surface trough may kick off a few sprinkles/flurries for a time
early this evening, but definitely shouldn`t be a big deal. Skies
expected to scatter out at least some overnight, and with that high
building in bringing light winds, may set the stage for a bit of
fog by sunrise Saturday.

High pressure continues to dominate northern Michigan weather
Saturday, bringing dry weather along with it. High and mid level
clouds will slowly be on the increase, but still expecting at least
partly sunny skies. Simply no real cold air around, and quick
modification of overhead airmass will allow temperatures to return
back into the 30s and lower 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

...More freezing rain possible Sat night; very windy Sunday...

Primary Forecast Concern...Freezing rain potential Sat night/early

The mild but active weather pattern will continue through Monday. It
still looks like a potent but fast moving area of low pressure
tracks by to our west Saturday night into early Sunday possibly
bringing another period of freezing rain across portions of mainly
interior sections of northern lower. Forecast ice accumulations are
a tenth of an inch or less but this would be more than sufficient to
lead to slick roadways and difficult travel conditions overnight
Sunday. Meanwhile, across eastern upper, a mixture of snow, sleet
and freezing rain could add up to an inch or two of snow and a thin
coating of ice on top of it. Very windy conditions behind the
departing area of low pressure expected Sunday with wind gusts
possibly reaching between 40 and 50 mph. The area will then be in
between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south
Sunday night into Monday. This should lead to precipitation free
weather with slowly decreasing winds. Temperatures Sunday should be
nearly steady or slowly falling from the upper 30s to middle 40s,
with similar highs Monday. Temperatures will slowly rise out of the
middle 20s to lower 30s Saturday night. Lows Sunday night in the
middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Expect well above normal temperatures into mid week as high pressure
moves through the Ohio Valley, increasing warm advection into the
area. Things get a bit more interesting towards the end of the week.
Another storm system with a combination of rain and a messy wintry
mix could impact region. Current guidance looks a bit overdone on
the strength of the system, and as this corrects the track will
change as well. With temperatures already borderline between liquid
or frozen precip, these adjustments are going to be key for p-type
concerns. Right now it looks like daytime rain, with a transition to
snow as temperatures drop overnight. If we see a northward
adjustment, I would expect increased warm air to bring more liquid
precip, and likely an airmass with higher PWATS as it will be
working with Gulf moisture. A southward adjustment will bring a
cooler temperature profile, but a much drier airmass. Given the
downstream blocking we are seeing, I`m inclined to think the
adjustment is going to be southward with this system, but we will
see how it plays out over the next few days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1133 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

CIGS continue to lift to VFR from west to east, but upstream CIGS
are sliding back to MVFR. This makes sense with a lowering
inversion. Skies also not expected to scatter out until even
later, thus MVFR conditions to last possibly into Saturday
morning. Low pressure and a front push into nrn Michigan Saturday
night with lowering CIGS, eventually to MVFR again, along with the
next potential light mix of precipitation.

Light winds through Saturday, but LLWS develops Saturday night as
winds start to increase ahead of the low pressure.




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