Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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862
FXUS63 KAPX 141730
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1230 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...1037 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS HAD
SCATTERED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. APX RADAR SHOWED
MUCH OF THE LAKE ACTIVITY HAD FALLEN APART EXCEPT FOR AN AREA
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON REVOLVE AROUND THE EXTENT OF ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT AND CLOUD TRENDS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE SOUTH AT THIS HOUR. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS (MEAN 850 TO 700 MB RH
ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT)...HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT. EVEN SO...EXPECT SOME WEAKISH SOUTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL COLD
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT WITH
WIND CHILLS OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDER THAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

CLOUDS VERY STUBBORN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN NOT AS COLD AS EXPECTED...SO CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

IMPACT WEATHER: BRUTAL COLD THIS MORNING...LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW LATE
TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWING SHARP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST...WITH A POSITIVELY SHEARED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PUNCHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. SNOW WAS FLYING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND
ALSO AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THROUGH IOWA/IL...WITHIN STRONGER FORCING
APPLIED BY DPVA...WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER NRN MICHIGAN...BUT ANALYSIS OF 00Z APX SOUNDING
AND VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS THAT THERE IS STILL SOME 15-20KT FLOW
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WHICH STILL EXTENDS UP TO 800MB. THUS...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS/CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE NW FLOW REGIMES...BUT IT IS VERY
LIGHT AND WINDS ARE WEAKENING AND BACKING MORE WESTERLY WITH
TIME. WE DO HAVE SOME DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO WHICH HAS
SEEMINGLY RESULTED IN A CONVERGENCE AREA AND BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
BISECTING EASTERN UPPER. WHILE WE DO HAVE MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING
LAND BREEZES...ALL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOWS WILL NOT PUSH OUT
OVER THE LAKES UNTIL AN H8 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES CAN SLIDE
IN OVER US (LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER)...WHICH OCCURS
CLOSER TO DAWN. TEMPERATURES IN CLEAR AREAS WERE ALREADY AS COLD
AS -15F...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS WERE 10-15 DEGREES. QUITE THE RANGE!

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION:

LAND BREEZES WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT BY DAYBREAK...AND AS WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WEAKEN FURTHER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOWS
WILL PROBABLY BE OUT OVER THE LAKES THEN AS WELL. THUS...THE DAY
IS EXPECTED TO START CLEAR AND BRUTALLY COLD...AS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...RANGING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TO WELL INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. JUST A BREATH OF WIND WILL
RESULT IN A MUCH COLDER FEEL...AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ALMOST
EVERYWHERE FOR BRUTAL WIND CHILLS. BONE DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP SKIES
SUNNY FOR MOST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AS WINDS SWING AROUND OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND MIX TO THE SFC...SOME MID LAKE LIGHT SNOWS/CLOUDS WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...AND PERHAPS WESTERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AND DRUMMOND ISLAND. THE UPSTREAM WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
TONIGHT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
TARGETS...BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO LOSE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE...LEAVING
US IN A MORE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWS DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE/REINVIGORATE THE LAKE
EFFECT WHICH WILL BE COMING IN OFF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON OUT OF
THE SOUTH. USING A PARCEL OUT OVER THE WATER...INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE SHALLOW...UNDER 3KFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BETTER
SNOWFALL FOR FAR EASTERN AND FAR WESTERN AREAS OF CHIPPEWA AND
MACKINAC COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MAYBE SOME OF THE "BETTER" SNOWS IMPACTING/SCRAPING COASTAL AREAS
OF NW/NE LOWER IF THE FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY DUE SOUTH.

AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS...VERY MINIMAL. A HALF INCH OR LESS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 15-20F. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY 5 TO 15F...SOME
COLDER SPOTS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ACROSS NE LOWER...AWAY FROM
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE HURON AND WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LAST.
THERE COULD BE A QUICK DROP OFF IN THE EVENING TO COLDER READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SNOW CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF VARYING SNOW
CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS FLATTENED OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AS A 180KT JET AXIS
EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE DATELINE TO THE WEST COAST.  DEEP TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH A COUPLE OF
QUICK MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGHS PLAINS/ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

HIGH PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH LATITUDE ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO RE-ALIGN THE EASTERN TROUGH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.  THIS
TROUGHING WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
AROUND THURSDAY.  PACIFIC-ORIGIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATER FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS HIGH INTO MICHIGAN.  WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN MONDAY...WITH A SECOND
WAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS MONDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH LOOKS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: THE BROKEN RECORD OF CONTINUED SNOW
CHANCES (E.G., GAYLORD CO-OP STATION HAS RECORDED A TRACE OF
PRECIPITATION EVERY DAY SINCE 8 JANUARY) WITH VARYING PIECES OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES.

MONDAY...700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO BE JUST UPSTREAM
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO SNOWFALL
SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
BUT ANOTHER COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL LAG THE MID LEVEL FEATURE...CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FEATURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO RESULT IN A NARROW NORTH-
SOUTH SNOW BAND THAT WILL GET ADVECTED EAST INTO MACKINAC COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (COULD BE A LOCALLY
INTENSE SNOW BAND FOR AN ~2 HOUR WINDOW).  SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT
ALSO POSSIBLE INTO FAR EASTERN UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND REGION IN SHORT
FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON.  GIVEN THE TWO-PROGGED SNOWFALL
THREAT PLAN TO USE A GENERIC CATEGORICAL POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY
FOR MONDAY...AS PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD COVER THING NICELY.  SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE EVENT EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (~1
INCH)...BUT WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCED
COMPONENT.  BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MONDAY EVENING...AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LAND BREEZE COMPONENTS TO EVENTUALLY KEEP
MORE CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO SHORE.  A BIT OF A SIGNAL IN MODEL MASS
FIELDS FOR SOME FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS AREAS WHERE CLOUDS CAN THIN
(E.G., NORTHEAST LOWER)...THOUGH A WEAK SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COULD BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  ALSO SOME
PROBABILITY THAT LAKE PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER TO A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

TUESDAY...AS MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MIDWEST... ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

RENEWED COLD AIR PUSH INTO MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THEN MODERATE FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ROLLING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TO END THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLDER WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A HEAVY SNOW SETUP.
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PUSH SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED GUIDANCE TRENDS OF PUSH AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE INTO THE
UPPER LAKES WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY STILL NEAR OR A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING.  SO A WINTRY MIX (SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/
SLEET) POTENTIAL STILL IN THE OFFING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
THOUGH MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S. WILL
START NEXT SATURDAY OUT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL TEAM UP WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING BACK CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO TWO INCHES. WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT
OF LLWS CRITERIA...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

ARCTIC AIR WILL MODERATE SOME HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT GETS A BOOST IN SPOTS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING FROM A
CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SE AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...LIKELY REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SW.
THE GRADIENT IS LOOSE HOWEVER...WITH WINDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...DICKSON



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