Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 232348
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
748 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

High impact weather potential: numerous showers/t-storms on
Wednesday. Svr storms not expected.

High pressure is over the mid-atlantic states, while a cold front is
slowly pushing across the central/northern plains. In between,
breezy sw winds continue to bring warmer air into northern MI. This
airmass is presently dry-ish, with little in the way of cloud cover.
Deeper moisture is advancing ne-ward along with a warm front into
the central plains/mid-MS valley. The return of the low level jet
tonight will result in that deeper moisture accelerating ne-ward.
This increasing moisture will become evident very late tonight but
especially on Wednesday, with rapidly increasing pops. Precip trends
are the main concern.

Tonight...500mb shortwave ridge axis is building overhead this
afternoon, contributing to relatively cloud-free conditions. This
ridge will slowly work across and just east of Lake Huron tonight.
That will allow a (deamplifying) trof to reach eastern WI and sw
lower MI by morning. Sw 850mb winds of 20-25kt will persist over
northern MI. A stronger 30-40kt jet will be seen in Mizzou and
surroundings, but the nose of this jet does not get any closer than
northern IL and western IN. The associated deep moisture plume looks
to be poised just upstream by morning, but it isn`t quite here yet.
Decent agreement amongst the near-term guidance that the chance of
precip reaching MBL by 12z is in the 10-15% range. So feel
reasonably comfortable in keeping the night dry, though clouds will
certainly be on the increase in nw lower MI overnight.

Min temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday...aforementioned 500mb trof makes slow progress into
northern MI, ending up over ne lower and Lake Huron by early
evening. Surface cold front will remain well upstream, reaching far
western upper MI and central WI late. Showers and some embedded
thunderstorms will accompany the warm conveyor belt into northern MI
as the day proceeds. Instability will be limited by incoming cloud
cover and limited diurnal heating, with mlcape topping out at circa
500j/kg. Enough for some thunder, but primary instability plume (and
thus svr risk) will remain to our w and sw.

Precip will arrive in the morning near and west of TVC/CAD, and will
slowly expand ne-ward with time. For afternoon/early evening, most
of northern MI will have pops in the 70-80 range. Main exception is
the far east (APN/OSC/Drummond Isl), where only chance pops are
warranted late. Also, west of TVC/CAD, pops will stairstep down to
chance late, as they start to get behind the upper trof. QPF is
in the general vicinity of a quarter-inch.

Max temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A bit of a south to southwest
breeze, but not as much as today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Upstream low pressure will reach Lake Superior by Wednesday night
and will slowly track east thru SE Ontario on Thursday...reaching
Wrn Quebec by Thursday night. As this system slides eastward...
lift...moisture and instability ahead of the associated cold front
will be suppressed southward toward Southern Lower Michigan. The
cold front itself will still be west of our CWA Wednesday night...
and will plenty of moisture streaming northward ahead of the front
along with descent instability...likely POPs are still a good bet
for much of our CWA. POPs will gradually diminish from NW to SE late
Wednesday night and Thursday as the low and cold front pull away.
There may be some revival of convection across our SE CWA on
Thursday...especially Thursday afternoon with the cold front right
over that area during peak diurnal heating/instability.

High pressure builds back into the Western Great Lakes region
Thursday night into Friday...resulting in dry wx and a brief cool
down thanks to weak CAA behind the departing cold front. Wednesday
night will be mild and muggy with overnight lows in the 60s. Expect
another warm and humid day on Thursday with afternoon highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Temps will be noticeably cooler Thursday
night and Friday...with low temps cooling into the upper 50s and
high temps mainly in the low to mid 70s.

Extended...

The pattern over the extended period remains highly progressive with
waves passing every few days. Sunday is the first threat of rain as
a subtle shortwave passes through Northern Great Lakes. The sfc low
remains rather weak with this wave and should not produce any severe
weather. Monday through Tuesday afternoon will dry out with the flow
quickly building back up before another wave comes down from Canada.
The general pattern looks to remain active after that.

Temps will remain above average for extended forecast with highs in
the upper 70s and low 80s. There is currently no concern for severe
storms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions anticipated through tonight with some high cloud
cover drifting through. But there is a wave of low pressure in the
midwest this evening that will be swinging across the region on
Wednesday. This will bring showers through the region on
Wednesday, particularly later in the morning and through the
afternoon hours. A little bit of better moisture and instability
will push into the region in the afternoon and there may be a few
thunderstorms in northern lower Michigan in the afternoon through
early evening. But I have not included any TSTM explicitly in the
TAF forecast at this juncture.

Winds will diminish to a large degree this evening, although with
stronger winds aloft there likely will be a sustained 5 to 10 knot
S-SW surface wind through the night. Some marginal LLWS below 1500
feet is not out of the question if surface winds can decouple
enough.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Sw-erly winds, gusty at times, will continue thru Wednesday, ahead
of an incoming cold front. Small craft advisories all ready up for
many waters into tonight. Will be assessing the need to extend
some of these headlines later this afternoon. Front will cross the
region on Thursday, with winds veering w during the day and nw
that night.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ015-016-
     019-020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341-345-346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MLR
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...JZ



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