Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 031649
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK UNDER UPPER COLD POOL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD BE SOME MVFR
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF AN MBL-APN LINE BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED. GENERAL NW FLOW AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...SMD


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