Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281144
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
744 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...ONE MORE FINE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
OCCLUDING/STATIONARY 1002MB LOW NEAR CLE...SECONDARY LOW CENTER
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WHERE BETTER
PRESSURE FALLS SETTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  VERY NARROW RIDGE RUNNING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONNECTING SURFACE HIGH CENTERS OVER
QUEBEC AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  PRECIP
CIRCLING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OHIO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BUT HAS BEEN THINNING...WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH OVER
MINNESOTA.  NORTHWARD TILTED LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALSO
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OHIO SYSTEM...WITH DEEP LAYER QG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AS
CIRRUS SHIELD PUSHES AWAY FROM NORTHEAST LOWER.  PATCH OF
ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS REGION.

SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO RE-ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
MOSTLY DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT.  PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HINTS OF SOME POTENTIAL AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY...COULD IT AMOUNT TO SOMETHING???

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...STUCK BETWEEN A RATHER LARGE STACKED LOW CENTER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND A BAGGY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST.  QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION
STUFF HINTING AT POPPING OFF A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.  SO
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BLOW OFF THIS IDEA... UNCERTAIN ABOUT
WHETHER THE FORECAST DEGREE OF MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED...DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S/NEAR 60 WHICH SEEM SOMEWHAT HIGH GIVEN 00Z APX/GRB
SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION EXCEPT FROM THE LAKES.
WILL PLAY WITH THE IDEA OF DIURNAL CLOUDS POPPING UP TODAY BUT WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE TIME BEING
(AND CROSS OUR FINGERS).  AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...
PUSHING RAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHILE A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/
LAKE SUPERIOR.  STILL LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS WITH SOME CLOUDS SPREADING TOWARD EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FROM THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MORE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WHICH MEANS IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY
MEANS. OF COURSE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH. TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS AS THE ALREADY MOIST AIRMASS REACHES
SATURATION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE
LAKES AND COMMUNITIES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY THEREOF. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY WITH ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...DIMINISHING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND VEER TO
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WILL COOL A BIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S OVER THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA AND THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S OVER NORTHERN LOWER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY MORNING AND DROP TO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN/S WEATHER...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES... ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY...PRODUCING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ON AND OFF CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING...FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS TO IMPACT LOCAL WIND VELOCITIES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
MARINE...JPB



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