Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 230451
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1051 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

WITH THE SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE...AN AREA OF
HIGH STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHERN
LARIMER SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY AND EXTENDING
EAST THROUGH DENVER...SOUTHERN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES. LATEST
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THIS STRATUS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS THIS MAY ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TO FORECASTED LOWS AND MAY BUMP A BIT. ALSO A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR
THOSE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

PRESSURE SURGE PASSING BY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY IN
DENVER...AND WILL TURN TO SSE BY MORNING. LESS SMOKY AIR HAS MOVED
INTO NORTHERN BORDER AREAS...BUT THE DIRTIER AIR MAY WIND UP
STALLING OUT OVER EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THEN COMING
BACK ON THE RETURN FLOW SUNDAY MORNING. MIXING WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED AS THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE INVERSION
LAYER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS CLEANER AIR ABOVE THE
FRONTAL INVERSION NOW...AND THERE WAS NOT MUCH SMOKE LOFTED FROM
THE FIRES TODAY. SO PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN BETTER AFTER THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TIL AROUND LATE EVENING IN THE LINCOLN COUNTY.
THEN SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES ON.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST AS DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING ALLOW SMOKE THAT
THICKENED BEHIND THE FRONT TO REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. WILL
MENTION THE SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL WITH PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPS...WE WILL SEE A COOL AUTUMN-LIKE NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND DECREASING WINDS. FOR SUNDAY...
READINGS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE
EARLY DAY MAXES WE SAW TODAY...WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER COLORADO EARLY IN THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER. WL KEEP THE MENTION
OF TSTMS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY...WITH A SLGT CHC
MOVING INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR TUESDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. IT WILL BE
A COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER COLORADO AGAIN BUT
ENOUGH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER BJC/DEN WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FT
AGL AND INDICATIONS THIS MAY REMAIN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SMOKE
LAYER WITH TOPS AROUND 12 THOUSAND FEET MSL WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES OF 5-10 MILES WILL BE
COMMON...WITH AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN MAY BE NEEDED AT
TIMES WITH THE SMOKE AND STRATUS.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN/GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN/GIMMESTAD



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