Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170234
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
834 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

There has been some stg convection early this evening
over srn Lincoln county. This convection appears to be associated
with a weak mid lvl circulation that was enhanced by an outflow
bndry. Tstms may linger for another hour or so will keep in
low pops thru at least 04z.  Otherwise tstm activity has
ended over the higher terrain and no further development is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Water vapor satellite shows center of weak low over far eastern
Colorado with the best axis of moisture over the eastern state
border. Drier air under the ridge is pushing over the foothills
and urban corridor. A ribbon of moisture originating over western
Colorado this morning has moved over the northern and central
mountains with scattered thunderstorms expected to continue
pushing south over the next few hours. Most hires models have
discontinued wanting to bring convection into the Denver area this
evening - will continue the dry forecast. Storms over the far eastern
plains may last into the night, especially over the far
northeastern corner as the low lifts slightly north.

Monday will bring warmer temperatures as the upper ridge re-
establishes itself behind the departing upper low. Moisture in
westerly flow will continue another day of scattered afternoon
mountains showers and storms, with a slight chance of pushing over
the plains. Precipitation will be light over the plains however,
with forecast soundings showing more of an inverted V type, so
gusty winds will be more of a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Broad high pressure ridge aloft over the 4 corners region on
Tuesday will gradually shift eastward into the central plains
states from late Wednesday through the end of this week.
Initially, temperatures will be warming well into the 90s over the
plains with only isolated storms through Wednesday. The mountains
will see slightly better chances for storms with a better influx
of moisture. Once the high shifts east, the flow will become more
southwest which should steer a bit more moisture into Colorado
and the plains. Expect some slight cooling later in the week with
a better chance for storms. Fairly typical weather pattern for
middle of July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 828 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Winds have begin to become more sely in the last hour and should
go more ssw by midnight and continue overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...RPK


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