Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 172041
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
241 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

for this evening...the northeast corner dewpoints are still in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. caps on all models are 2500+ with low
cins. several models suggest a southeast moving supercell
clipping the northeast corner. This already is reflected in grids.

After a lull late tonight and early monday...monday pm looks
capped on the northeast plains...with the best opportunity of
convection over the higher terrain of the palmer divide...cheyenne
ridge and the mountains and foothills. this is also already
reflected in previous forecast...so no changes. I did raise max
temps a degree in eastern colorado due to higher guidance numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 pm MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Models keep the upper ridge centered over Oklahoma Monday night
through Wednesday night. There is weak southwesterly flow aloft
for the CWA all five periods. There is no synoptic scale energy
noted on the QG Omega fields through 12z Thursday morning. Models
show a fairly weak low level pressure gradient Monday night so
normal drainage wind patterns should prevail. There should be some
easterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday, with normal drainage flow
during the night times. Models have quite a bit of mid and upper
level moisture for the CWA through Thursday morning. The
precipitable water values are in the 0.70 to 1.50 inch range
Monday evening. They are in the 0.50 to 1.40 inch range Tuesday
and Wednesday. Models have plenty of CAPE over all the CWA through
the periods, with the highest values over the mountians and
foothills during the afternoons and evenings. We should have
decent thunderstorms coverage in the mountians for the next
several days, but still not great out on the plains. The plains
could see 30% pops late day Monday and Tuesday. Heavy rain could
be an issue Monday evening. For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs
will be 1-3 C warmer then Monday`s highs. Wednesday`s highs will
be 1-2 C warmer than Tuesday`s. For the later days, Thursday
through Sunday, models keep the upper high centered southeast of
the CWA, but the upper ridge flattens out somewhat Friday into the
weekend. There will still be some mid and upper level moisture to
move across the CWA, but less by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

vfr conditions should continue at area airports through midday
monday. There will be isolated thunderstorms...which may be more
of an issue for arrival gates than the airports. surface winds
will be mostly east or east southeast this evening...becoming
light downslope late tonight...and transitioning back to a
northeast wind midday monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

tomorrow will be the first of several days of monsoon moisture
with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
winds will be light and dewpoints higher...so the overall threat
of large fires will be reduced starting tomorrow. If we can
moisten the fuels the next few days that will also reduce the fire
threat.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RTG
FIRE WEATHER...RTG


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