Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161632
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1032 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AT
THIS TIME...BUT NOTHING ON RADAR. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDING
SHOWS A PRETTY STRONG CAP AT 500 MB. DEW POINTS FROM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER ALL
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LATEST MODELS HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER NOW THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE FOR NOW. LITTLE TO CHANGE OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE FORECAST TRENDS CALL FOR EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER NEVADA AND
MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  INTEGRATED PW TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DRYING TRENDS WITH PW VALUES NOW AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO TENTHS LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER THERE STILL IS
SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO BUT LOOKS LIKE WILL STAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO. FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THE REST OF THE PLAINS
LOOK DRY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO UPCOMING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN ROCKIES FM SUN INTO MON
WITH MAINLY WLY MID FLOW ALOFT.  OVERALL MOISTURE IS STILL RATHER
LIMITED ON SUN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY EXCEPT OVER THE ECNTRL
PLAINS.  WILL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT RANGE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SUN AFTN/EVENING.  OVER THE ECNTRL PLAINS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHC OF STORMS SUN
EVENING SO WILL GO WITH CHC POPS IN THE LIMON AREA.  HIGHS ON SUN
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
NERN CO.

ON MON LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A WK FNT MAY AFFECT NERN CO
BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL LEVELS.  AS FOR TSTM CHANCES
THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME LIMITED MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
COLORADO BY AFTN AND EVENING.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP POPS MAINLY IN
THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE AND WED THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
WRN US.  THIS ALLOWS FOR AN INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
MOVING ACROSS NRN CO BY EARLY TUE EVENING.  THUS THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHC OF TSTMS IF THIS FEATURE IS REAL.  ON WED THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN SWLY
FLOW MID LVL FLOW SO COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF STORMS IN THE MTNS
WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OVER NERN CO.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BOTH DAYS.

ON THU THE GFS STILL HAS AN INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF DECREASES THE MOISTURE AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WLY.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
AFTN/EVENING STORMS OVER THE AREA.  HIGHS ON THU STILL LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.  BY FRI THE GFS EJECTS A SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHC OF STORMS.  AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA HOWEVER IT DOES INCREASE THE AMOUNT
OF MONSOON MOISTURE.  AS FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN THEY SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

VELOCITY DATA FROM THE LOCAL RADARS INDICATES WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
AT DIA FOR A WHILE...THEN LIKELY BECOMING MORE NORTH OR
NORTHEASTERLY. SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. NO CEILINGS
ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK


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