Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 252126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
326 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Northwesterly flow aloft continues as an upper ridge is over the
desert southwest and a broad trough is over the Great Lakes area.
High surface pressure over the Great Plains keeps cool and moist
air over the plains. Low stratus covered for the forecast area for
longer than expected keeping a cap over most of the area except
south over the Palmer Divide, where cells have formed and tracked
southeast. The HRRR model did quite well today with the convective
forecast - better than the last couple of days. Some hint that
some convection will occur this evening and push slightly
northward into the metro areas. Shouldn`t be very strong or last
very long with the upper ridge continuing to push in and the loss
of the suns heat.

The upper ridge axis will push into the state Monday for warmer
and drier conditions area wide as the surface upslope flow will
weaken. Isolated showers/weak storms are still possible mainly
over the higher terrain south of I70, and perhaps over the far
eastern plains where CAPE is progged to be in the 1500-2000 J/kg
and marginal shear.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The ridge axis will shift east across Colorado Monday night and
Tuesday as an embedded wave in the flow moves over the area late
Tuesday. Expect a few more thunderstorms will move over the
plains during this time period with even the potential for a few
severe storms over the plains with better low level moisture.
Temperatures will also be warmer on Tuesday as the thermal ridge
will be over Eastern Colorado with readings well into the 90s.

Following the trof on Tuesday evening the flow will increase from
the west and northwest through the end of the week. This will open
Colorado to more weak fronts for Thursday and Friday with a
cooling trend and a bit better chance for storms. However, overall
storm coverage looks to be on the lower side.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Ceilings of 2-3kft continue to scatter out across the area.
Lower ceilings should remain scattered out with airmass drying
out. There is still a slight chance for thunderstorms 21-04Z
mainly west and south of the Denver area. Not expecting them to
impact the area airports. Northeast winds will transition to
drainage after 06z tonight. Some MOS guidance and forecast
soundings showing possible fog under light winds across the area.
Will hold off for now putting any mention into the TAFs. Warmer
and drier air tomorrow will allow for VFR conditions.




SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.