Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 030347
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
947 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT
NOW. THERE ARE STILL QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CWA. WILL LEAVE THE "CHANCE"
POPS GOING IN THE ALPINE AREAS OVERNIGHT BASED ON REAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

RADAR SHOWING STORMS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH FROM THE
WYOMING BORDER. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER
ESE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 0.85 INCHES SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR THE PLAINS WHILE STAYING MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SW WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MORNING INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK ASCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO BRING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS BY
THE AFTERNOON. KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE CLOSE TO 1 INCH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS WITH STORM
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WY. THE BEST TSTM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT FM THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PASS THROUGH WYOMING. AS IT DOES THE RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AGAIN
SEE SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER. ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME WEAK QG ASCENT
MOVING INTO WRN AND NORTHERN CO IN THE AFTN/EVNG...MAYBE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SLIP
BACK INTO COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...MORE CLOUDS
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY...LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DRAINAGE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT DIA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RJK



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