Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 290343
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY TO WESTERN LOGAN COUNTY CONTINUES TO
SHRINK IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AT THIS HOUR. NOT ALL THAT SURE WHY
THIS COLLECTION OF STORMS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. ONE PARTICULAR STORM SAT STATIONARY
OVER THE TOWN OF NUNN IN NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY FOR ABOUT TWO
HOURS. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A NUMBER OF DIRT ROADS
EITHER WASHED OVER OR WASHED OUT IN THE AREA FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR. THAT STORM HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...
HOWEVER A COUPLE MORE STORMS HAVE JUST FORMED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY AND BARE WATCHING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A OLD WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE GREAT DENVER METRO AREA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME INDICATION THAT PARTS OF THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING
AROUND SUNRISE. LATEST DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THIS HAPPENING EVEN
WITH THE INCREASING MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER THOUGH THE STORMS UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY WOULD DRIFT SOUTH CLIPPING DIA AND POSSIBLY
APA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. DON/T SEE THAT HAPPENING NOW. SO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THEIR TAFS. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET...LATEST DATA NO LONGER INDICATES LOW CIGS.
AS IT LOOKS NOW DO ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE
DENVER AREA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOES INTO EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LAST OF THE STORMS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SHOWING
SIGNS OF COLLAPSING. MODELS ONLY SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF/PRECIP
AMTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER PARK COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTER 3/4TH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS
REMAIN QUITE BULLISH REGARDING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. GREATEST
AMOUNTS STILL STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. OF COURSE THIS CAN EASILY
SHIFT WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER


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