Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 172209
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
309 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014

GUSTY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS ALL AFTERNOON. WINDS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE PLAINS
RELAX. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WINDS AS A LEE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE STATE WILL BE STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY JET WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS GOING TO RENEW THE THREAT OF
STRONG WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS. AS THE JET ARRIVES...THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL DIMINISH...SETTING UP AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE
SETUP WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRONGEST MOUNTAIN WAVE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE OCCURRED
UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP BEFORE. SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY THE AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE AND POSSIBLE MEAN STATE CRITICAL
LAYER...THEY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS TERRAIN RATHER THAN
SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS. THUS THE WATCH IS ONLY FOR THE
FOOTHILLS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT STILL A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THERE
WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIPITATION AND SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014

WE APPEAR TO BE IN A FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...TO START THE
PERIOD WE ARE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND TO END THE PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK WE ARE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. QUITE A BIT HAPPENS IN
BETWEEN.

ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE APPROACHING THE STATE...ON
THURSDAY THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH SOUTH OF US...WITH A WEAK WIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THEN AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER ONE CARVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THESE TWO TROUGHS HELP DEVELOP A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING COLORADO BACK IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

MOIST ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWS. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD. PLAINS SNOWS A QUESTION FOR NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...LEFT LOW POPS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS...BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...LEFT MOST OF
THE URBAN CORRIDOR INCLUDING DENVER DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAY MAY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. BY MONDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
AT THE DIFFERENT AIRPORT LOCATIONS. KBJC WILL BY GUSTY AND OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. KAPA WILL GO FROM
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT AS
EVENING INVERSIONS FORM AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DE-COUPLES FROM THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT. WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. KDEN WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING AS
THE EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE DUE TO AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
ROTATION THAT HAS SET UP DOWNWIND FROM THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. WINDS SHOULD TURN TO DRAINAGE SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MORE
VERTICAL MIXING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ035-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...DANKERS



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