Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 180213
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
813 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Water vapor imagery shows a few weak disturbances
with one over the northeast plains and a 2nd one
near the CO-WY border north of Walden.  Some weak convection
is occurring with the one over the northeast plains
while only widely sct high based showers are happening the other
feature. Meanwhile a few storms have developed over the Palmer
Divide where a couple of outflow boundaries have interacted.
Overall expect most activity will end before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Light westerly flow is pushing into the area as a broad high
pressure lies over the southern Rockies. Isolated to scattered
convection over the mountains will continue barely making out over
the plains, except over the northern plains where outflow will
likely spread across the plains. Eastern plains are expected to
remain dry. A shortwave over far southwestern Wyoming is expected
to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the high
country at least later this evening, though activity will likely
be done by midnight. Left over clouds from this activity as well
as warm advection from the west will keep low temperatures
moderated tonight.

Tuesday will be slightly warmer, and drier mainly over the
northern half of the forecast area where lower PWs will be moving
in. Once again, afternoon storms over the mountains will barely
make it over the plains in the afternoon, but if they do there
will be more wind than rain.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The broad high pressure ridge aloft will be in the process of
shifting east of Colorado and into the central plains states
through the end of the week, especially by Thursday and Friday.
This pattern will help to steer additional moisture into Colorado
from the desert southwest and across the northeast plains by
Thursday evening and Friday. Convection may be aided by a weak
front and upper trof by stronger energy moving into the northern
Rocky mountain region. Should see additional cooling by Friday
behind the front.  Almost like last weekend, a very weak low
aloft slowly moves through the mean ridge position and drifts
across Colorado through the weekend and early next week with with
decent chances for precip. Temperatures will at least cool to near
seasonal high temperatures or even a bit below normal.

Unfortunately the long range models are building the ridge back
westward towards Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with dry and
warming conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 802 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Rather chaotic winds early this evening due to several boundaries.
Winds may briefly become more nely as there is a weak boundary ne
of DIA. However there is another boundary to the south which may
switch winds to sly by 9 pm. After midnight winds may go to a
more sw direction by 3 am.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...RPK


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