000
FXUS65 KBOU 141546
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAK FNT WAS MOVING ACROSS NERN CO THIS MORNING
WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND FNT. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS
THE LIMON AREA. ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH EXPECTED
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT HIGHER BASED STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME SVR
POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER ERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

.AVIATION...WK BNDRY WAS OVER DIA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NNE. BY
EARLY AFTN LATEST RAP SHOWS A WK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER
ERN DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH LOW LVL WINDS BECOMING MORE ELY AND
CONTINUING THRU MOST OF THE AFTN. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC
FOR TSTMS WILL BE S AND SE OF DIA HOWEVER THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME ISOLD HIGHER BASED STORMS SO WILL KEEP VCNTY IN THE TAF. FOR
TONIGHT ANOTHER FNT WILL AFFECT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING BY 12Z SAT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE
SELY AND THEN BECOME MORE NLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY LOW IN THE HIGHER
VALLEYS AND SRN FOOTHILLS HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY BLO 20 MPH IN
MOST AREAS SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ISOLD HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. DRIER AIR
OVER UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY FALLING INTO 30S ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA. A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF
I-25. MOISTURE NOT THAT GREAT OVER EASTERN COLORADO EITHER WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH ONLY FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ALONG I-70 SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S YIELD
SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE. COULD GET A SEVERE
WIND GUST OR TWO DUE TO THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...OTHERWISE NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM A JET TO THE NORTH COULD PRODUCE A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WILL HAVE 10-20 POPS
FOR THIS WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG I-70 SOUTHEAST OF DENVER WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT WILL BE.

STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 09Z AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF STRATUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO COMPLETELY BURN OFF.
THE MDLS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW VERY FAVORABLE CAPE IN THE AFTN
WITH VALUES IN THE 1200-1600 J/KG RANGE AT KDEN...KLIC AND KAKO.
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF AND WHEN THE CAP WILL BE ELIMINATED.
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON SUNDAY...IT MAY BE A LITTLE DRIER FROM THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS WESTWARD...BUT STILL A CHANCE OF TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE EVER THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
SATURDAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL START TO DRY OUT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
STATE INCREASES...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. FIRE DANGER MAY AGAIN START TO ELEVATE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S BY
MIDWEEK.

AVIATION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL
WEAKEN AND TURN WESTERLY AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
CLOCKWISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. AROUND 18Z...WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AND REMAIN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 19Z...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF DENVER...THOUGH ONE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE DENVER AREA. THE DENVER AIRPORTS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FEET WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...RPK