Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 020046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
646 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN EASTERN
COLORADO...HAVE MADE SOME REDUCTION IN POPS BEHIND THAT LINE...BUT
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR RAWLINS
THAT WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SO SOME AREAS SUCH
AS NORTH PARK...LARIMER COUNTY AND WELD COUNTY MAY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE GONE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
LINGER TIL MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. HAVE MADE SOME
REDUCTION IN POPS THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP...NOT A SURE THING SO WILL LEAVE FOR MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TO PUT IN IF NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL BE
IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER FLIRT WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT AREA AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER NOW THROUGH 04Z. IF A THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTS THROUGH THE
METRO AREA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH.
THE THREAT WILL BE GONE BY 06Z...THEN LATER TONIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



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