Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 162226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. IF IT DOES SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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