Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 042130
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
230 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017

Main upper trough has pushed east of the area with moderate to
strong downward QG vertical motion helping to clear skies. The
favored northwest flow will keep scattered light orographic snow
showers over the higher terrain, but only another inch or two at
most can be expected. Any remaining showers should be done around
or just after midnight.

The strong northwest winds over the plains will be subsiding
through the evening as a surface high pressure center over Wyoming
slides down to southeastern Colorado by morning. A lingering
upper trough currently stretched from Wyoming to California will
push south overnight allowing for colder air to sink south as
well. With the lowered wind speeds, cold air advection and mostly
clear skies, expect cold temperatures overnight, with readings in
the teens to single digits.

Dry north-northwesterly flow aloft Tuesday will allow for clear
skies, slightly warmer temperatures and much weaker northwest
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017

The upcoming week with be characterized by a high amplitude
ridge over the West Coast and a downstream trof covering much of
the central and eastern U.S. This puts Colorado under a moderate
to strong northerly flow aloft and susceptible to weak waves and
cooler temperatures moving southward in the flow. Long range
models are similar with this synoptic scenario and will follow
fairly close through the week.

Temperatures will be more on the normal side for this time of year
in contrast to last week`s balmy temperatures. Lower elevations
will see readings in the 30s and 40s during the afternoons through
Friday. Main impacts this week will be the strong and gusty winds
on the plains, especially during the afternoon periods through
Friday. Wind gusts in the 20-35kt range looks reasonable for most
afternoons and possibly even higher on Friday afternoon. Have
increased wind speeds in the forecast for the northeast plains,
especially east of the urban corridor.

Next trof and cold front in this flow regime will move southward
across Colorado on Wednesday with cooler temperatures again. Not
much moisture with this feature so only isolated coverage of snow
showers in the mountains. A jet streak on Thursday and some
moisture may spell a slightly higher chance for snow showers in
the mountains and maybe even a few flurries on the plains.

The high amplitude ridge is projected to move inland into the
Great Basin over the weekend with warmer temperatures and less
wind as the flow relaxes a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. North-northeasterly
winds have allowed for some clouds to form along the southern
foothills, but not sure much if any showers will form. The lower
clouds ceilings may affect APA and BJC, but likely not DEN. Winds
will veer to drainage tonight by midnight. Much less windy day
tomorrow with mostly clear skies.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman



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