Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 212115
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
215 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN FROM THE NORTH BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE
HAVE DESTABILIZED AND BECOME CONVECTIVE. THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING A DECREASING TREND TO THE NORTH AND THAT WILL CONTINUE. BY
MIDNIGHT...SHOULDNT BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UP TO
ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE
DENVER METRO AREA...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE
NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW FOCUSES THE SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER
VALLEY INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN IN FULL FORCE ALL AREAS
WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING SURFACE TO ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND BUT COLD ENOUGH TEMPS ALOFT TO KEEP READING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...DOWNWARD MOTION AND SOME MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NOSES
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
JET AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF COLORADO FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

ON TUESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
KICKING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND UTAH FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS...HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY PUT SLIGHT POPS INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE KEPT
THE PLAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AIRPORTS 23Z-03Z. SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY 03Z-04Z EVEN
AT KAPA WHICH WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ034-
036-037-041-046-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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