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000
FXUS65 KCYS 140937
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
337 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT LAYS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EXTENDING
WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS
MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT
THE LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES AT 1 AM THIS
MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. EARLY MORNING HUMIDITIES
PRETTY LOW AS WELL IN THIS MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 30 PERCENT IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS TO 60 PERCENT OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND OUR MORE SHELTERED AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

ANOTHER ITEM OF INTEREST...THAT IS AND WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON
OUR CURRENT AND UPCOMING WEATHER IS A PRETTY TIGHTLY WRAPPED
SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEING OBSERVED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO
THAT IS COMING ON SHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE HAD SOME IMPACT ON FORECAST MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING AND HAS KEPT US FROM REALLY BLOWING LIKE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING FOR THIS TIME FRAME 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR TODAY...700MB TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
+12C FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE
ARE GOING TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. 700MB WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NEVADA. A DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OUT OF MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...LOOKING
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTY BY 00Z AND
THEN TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND +8C AND
WE GET A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES WE HAVE HAD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRACK INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF...GFS
AND WRF MODELS ALL AGREE ON MOISTURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE GFS SOUNDING
SHOWING NEAR .75 INCHES OF PWAT NEAR CHEYENNE HERE...WITH CLOSE TO
.6 INCHES OUT BY RAWLINS. COULD BE IN FOR DECENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
THESE TIME FRAMES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE AFFECTED BY AN UPPER TROF
THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THEN PASS ACROSS IN TWO SEPARATE SHOTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF THIS TROF THEN COOLING OFF OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS. ECMWF MORE BULLISH WITH
QPF AND LOOKS SOMEWHAT OVERDONE THUS WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE
SOMEWHAT DRIER GFS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER SE WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SWITCHING WINDS TO NORTHERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS AREA WIDE AFTER A POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THIS
MORNING. GOOD NEWS IS THAT PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHER MORNING
HUMIDITIES...THEN EXPECT A DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING. COULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IN THE
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE MID 60S
FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. LATEST RIVER GAGES ON THE
ENCAMPMENT...SNAKE...LARMIE AND NORTH PLATTE RIVERS SHOWING A
STEADY INCREASE IN RIVER LEVELS...PEAKING OUT DURING THE NOON TO 3
PM TIME FRAME. THOUGH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THEIR
BANKS...OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS OR PERSONS LIVING NEAR THESE RIVERS IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS AND STREAMS NEAR THEIR
CAMPSITES OR HOMES IN CASE RAPID RISES DO OCCUR. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF SNOW PACK THAT WILL MELT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BELOW IS A LIST OF SOME
LOCATIONS AND THEIR RECORD HIGHS...SOME QUITE OLD...THAT WILL
LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY...14 MAY 2013.

CHEYENNE....RECORD 83 IN 1976....HIGH FORECAST TODAY....83

RAWLINS.....RECORD 80 IN 1976....HIGH FORECAST TODAY....81

SIDNEY......RECORD 90 IN 1948....HIGH FORECAST TODAY....91

ALLIANCE....RECORD 89 IN 1978....HIGH FORECAST TODAY....90

SCOTTSBLUFF.RECORD 93 IN 1931....HIGH FORECAST TODAY....95

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB