Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 181803
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1203 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. A WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS SEEN ON IR IMAGERY OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BUT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA AS MOISTURE STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE BY SUN
MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS REALLY ONLY A WIND SHIFT (NO REAL CAA
BEHIND IT). UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER WY FOR SUN AND MON. WITH
VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND NOT MUCH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL BE ABOUT AS LIGHT AS THEY CAN BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION FROM DAY TO DAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MON
NIGHT AND INTO TUES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO IDAHO.
WITH PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND
MT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE WEST WITH 70S INTO THE PLAINS AND VERY WELL COULD SEE SOME
LOWER 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THE TROUGH WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. MODELS
DO SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ENDING. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE WAVE...BUT STILL MILD FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE IS
PROJECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
MAKING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
20-25 KT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 20-30 PERCENT. OTHER THAN A FEW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH...WINDS WILL BE WEAK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH









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