Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 041756
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1256 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AREA OF MID CLOUDS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS
DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS AND IT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED INTO
EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WHILE RETURN FLOW WAS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS SHAPING UP NICELY FOR TODAY AS LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM ROUGHLY AROUND 850 MB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305K-315K LAYER INCREASES AFTER 09Z
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THETA-E AXIS NOSES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONCENTRATE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND TAPER OFF
TO THE EAST. FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...IT`S POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT MIGHT PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CHANCES AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE LOOK TO BE
SMALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT, STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS KS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY MOVEMENT RELATIVELY SLOW
AND EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH, AND BEHIND
FRONT. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EAST
CENTRAL KS ON TUESDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION TO ITS EAST. THUS, GFS WETTER ON WEDNESDAY THAN ECMWF
AND GEM. DESPITE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF, BOTH KEEP
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECASTING VFR FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD. THAT SAID, ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 8Z TIME FRAME. GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE MORNING AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND THE RETURN FLOW INCREASES. NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING CIGS TO DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KTOP/KFOE
AT THIS TIME SO DID LEAVE VFR FOR NOW. KMHK WILL BE DEALING WITH
POTENTIAL REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NE. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION WOULD BE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT AND TIMING WOULD BE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. PLANNERS SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THERE IS
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING HOURS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER TAF UPDATES
CONCERNING THIS. WITH THE RETURN FLOW, DON`T BELIEVE FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT
MIXING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...DRAKE


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