Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180440
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1140 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

After a round of morning fog, skies have become mostly sunny
across the area with highs reaching into the low 80s for most
locations. Convection has formed across the high plains of
Colorado and far western Kansas, and is slowly making its way
eastward. Upper wave associated with this development extends from
South Dakota into south central Colorado. Showers have bubbled up
over north central Kansas but have dissipated as they move east.

For tonight, will need to watch high plains convection, at this
time only have some slight chances for thunder mainly south and
west of Concordia. HRRR has been bullish at bringing convection to
just west of Manhattan, but most remaining guidance keeps CAP in
place and with not enough energy to develop elevated convection,
dissipates the northern storms and focuses more on the convection
rolling out of southern Colorado through the panhandles and
through northern Oklahoma. Overnight lows fall into the 50s. On
Sunday, not expecting a repeat of the fog given increasing
southerly winds through the period, with high temperatures a few
degrees warmer today in the middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

No major changes or highlights to the previous forecast. Models are
in smilier agreement with the main jet stream carrying embedded
upper waves across the far northern CONUS while an upper ridge
dominates the southern plains and a cut off low rotates off the CA
coast. Unlike consensus guidance, the GFS consistently develops a
weak vort max from southern OK through the Great Lakes region Sunday
night. Forcing is weak and available moisture is non existent on
forecast soundings so I continued with a dry forecast. The heat is
expected to return Monday with the upper ridge expanding northward.
Southerly flow persists at 10 to 15 mph towards the sfc Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. A weak cold front is progged to pass through the
area dry Monday evening while weak winds veer back around to the
south Tuesday afternoon. The lack of cool air behind the boundary
and some compressional warming in the vicinity has raised guidance
values to the lower 90s for highs both afternoons.

Beginning Wednesday evening, sfc troughing over the western high
plains is anticipated ahead of a strong upper low building over the
northwest CONUS. Lead upper trough shifts over the central plains
Wednesday evening, introducing slight chances for thunderstorms. As
the above mentioned upper low approaches the region, occasional
storm chances continue before a strong cold front sweeps through the
area Friday evening. Throughout the week, highs in the middle 80s
and overnight lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds becoming
south around 10 kts around 15Z, decreasing to less than 10 kts
after 21Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...53



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