Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010046
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
746 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

EVENING UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING AND ADJUST SKY COVER/WINDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A STEADILY DEEPENING LOW HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.  THE SYSTEM HAS SPREAD LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF MINNESOTA BEFORE CURVING BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  OF LOCAL
CONCERN...AN AREA OF STRATUS LINGERS FROM OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS
NORTHEAST TO AROUND LUTSEN.  IT ALSO EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TO
THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA.  UNDER THESE CLOUDS IT HAS LINGERED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...PUSHING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS BAND TO GET PRETTY SCATTERED
IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS THERE.  HOWEVER...WE GET A FRESH SURGE OF MOISTURE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN HERE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH THEN MOVES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD ALSO
HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR US TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME RANGE.  HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
REDUCED THEM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES...IF NOT MORE.  THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE 50S AND CHILLY IN THE RAIN
WEDNESDAY...BUT FARTHER WEST TOWARDS INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND BRAINERD
60S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL EJECTING MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DRAG A SFC FRONTAL BDRY
INTO THE CWA WED NIGHT. THIS BDRY WILL THEN SERVE AS THE LOW LVL
FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS A SFC LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY. WILL HAVE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP MOVE ACROSS ERN HALF
OF CWA WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AS WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL INCREASE
THUR AFTN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM SRN PLAINS INTO SWRN WISC. THIS
OCCURS AS MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF MID LVL TROF TAKES PLACE ACROSS NRN
PLAINS. STRONG MDL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF SFC LOW THURSDAY. ECM/GEN
PREFER A DEEPER SOLUTION THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES NE OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z FRI. GFS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER
EAST NEAR KGRB. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
THE FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED AND STRONG FORCING. AT THIS TIME
THE MAJOR MSTR TRANSPORT AXES AMONGST THE MODELS FAVORS THE SERN CWA
WHERE HIGHER PWATS OCCUR. STRONG KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ANOMALOUS MID LVL FEATURE SO EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS FRIDAY. SFC LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A FAIRLY DEEP CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER
THE REGION. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CH RW THROUGH WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED BETWEEN INSTABILITY
SHOWERS SATURDAY....AND A SHORTWAVE TROF POSSIBLY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BLO CLIMO FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT KDLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8 KFT...WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT. AN AREA OF
RAIN...WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTM WILL LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF MINNESOTA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO THE KDLH AND KHYR AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WESTERN
EXTEND OF THE RAIN INTO THE KDLH AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TRACKING EAST
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  56  52  62 /  40  50  40  60
INL  45  61  48  60 /  30  20  20  30
BRD  51  65  48  63 /  40  20  10  50
HYR  46  57  54  64 /  60  70  50  70
ASX  44  58  52  63 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING








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