Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Increased cloud cover across the region as cu coverage this
morning has been much more widespread that originally anticipated.

UPDATE Issued at 706 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Updated for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Clear skies and calm winds have brought 300 am readings across
the borderland from 40 at Sea Gull Lake, 41 at Hibbing to 44 at
International Falls. The record low temperature for International
Falls for Today is 38F set in 1993. Further south, low clouds
have kept a hold on the region keeping overnight readings in the
50s so far. However, as the clearing line pushes through the
remainder of the forecast areas temperatures will continue to fall
through daybreak.

High pressure will allow mostly sunny skies and light west winds
to prevail today, along with afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Showers and thunderstorms chances increase across the forecast
area Wednesday as an upper level low moved into Ontario; rotating
a short wave with sfc reflection cold front across the region. At
this time, the precipitation is on track to move into the
borderland zones Wednesday morning, reaching locations in northern
wisconsin Wed evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Wednesday night and Thursday...A cold front, associated with a
stacked low over far northern Ontario and southern Hudson Bay, and a
shortwave trough will drop through the Northland. Cool air will pour
into the Northland in the front`s wake, and the upper level trough
will provide synoptic lift. Temperatures could struggle to reach the
70s on Thursday. Rain showers are likely for much of the Northland,
especially northwest Wisconsin and the Minnesota Arrowhead where
around 0.25" of rainfall is forecast. There will below chances of
thunder, mainly ahead of and near the front overnight and early
Thursday, and then there could be up to a few hundred J/kg of most
unstable cape Thursday afternoon and early evening. Another
shortwave may drop down Thursday afternoon, only helping to maintain
the cloud cover. Think most models are underestimating the cloud
cover given the continued cold air advection with the relatively
humid flow, which should favor plenty of cumulus during the day, so
increased cloud cover. The 4km NAM typically performs well for these
types of situations of lingering overcast/broken cumulus, but it is
not within range yet. Once it is, may need to increase cloud cover
even more, further dashing hopes of seeing much afternoon and
evening sunshine.

Friday and Saturday...High pressure will move through the region,
providing a period of clearer skies. Cool northerly flow Friday will
limit highs to around 70 degrees, but light return flow Saturday
should see highs reach the middle 70s.

Sunday and Monday...The southerly flow will strengthen, bringing
more humidity into the region. Temperatures should reach the middle
70s. A passing shortwave trough and unstable conditions could bring
periods of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and early Monday
with the 30 knot low level jet.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 706 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High pressure over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
maintain clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions across the
Northland through tonight.


DLH  74  50  76  58 /   0   0  30  60
INL  75  50  77  55 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  76  52  80  58 /   0  10  30  40
HYR  75  47  78  57 /   0   0  10  40
ASX  73  47  78  57 /   0   0  10  40


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Graning
AVIATION...Grochocinski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.