Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 252031
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
331 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Surface low pressure was centered well north of the International
Border with a cold front trailing south through central Minnesota
as of mid afternoon. The strong upper trough will move east then
back south over the region tonight, as the cold front clears our
CWA later this evening. Showers will move back in and become
widespread, especially over the northern half of the area.
Westerly winds will be on the increase tonight. Strong cold air
tonight will drop 850MB temperatures to 2C to 3C by Monday
morning.

Winds will increase more on Monday as a tight gradient remains
with a surface low centered just north of Lake Superior at 995MB.
Forecast soundings show winds at the top of the mixed layer of 35
to 40 knots so it will be a windy day. Showers will possible
through Monday with chances highest over the Arrowhead and Iron
Range where showers will be widespread. Highs Monday will only be
in the fifties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Initially in the extended there will be a stacked system located
over northern portions of Lake Superior. This feature will rotate
across the central Great Lakes on Tuesday and dive southwards into
the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday evening. This will keep the the
Northland breezy on Tuesday with chances of rain showers across much
of the region. High temperatures will generally be in the 50s.

Shower chances decrease Tuesday evening into early Wednesday as high
pressure builds in from the west. With the clearing skies and light
winds, expect a good night for radiational cooling with some lows in
the mid to upper 30s across northern portions of MN. The ridge axis
will build across the Plains into the Upper Midwest from the middle
of the week until late in the work week. Still some disagreement
with the progression of the exiting upper low. The previous few runs
of the ECMWF and the latest GFS have come into some consensus with
the low stalling and rotating across the Ohio Valley. Think the
ECMWF is onto something as this has been a consistent feature in
the past several runs. Will see a warming trend as the week
progresses, but may be a bit too warm late in the week if the
latest ECMWF pans out. Expect high temperatures in the 60s
Thursday through Sunday, with a few spots hitting 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings through the TAF period as an upper level
trough digs and cuts off moving into Western Lake Superior Monday
afternoon. There is a brief window this afternoon for
KDLH/KHIB/KHYR to see VFR ceilings associated with the dry slot
just behind the occluded front and stacked low. However, this has
been filling in quickly and has been well handled by the RAP/NCAR
WRF/NAM with a return to MVFR ceilings.

Will see rain showers spread into all terminals this evening and
tonight with MVFR ceilings and a possibility of IFR ceilings.
Expect IFR ceilings to develop at KINL due to the proximity to the
low. Gusty winds will prevail at all terminals through the
forecast due to the tight pressure gradient over the region due to
the stacked low over the area with the highest winds on Monday.
KBRD will return to VFR around 09Z until the end of the TAF as
clouds lift with the low moving over Western Lake Superior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  56  45  57 /  70  60  30  30
INL  48  55  43  56 /  80  70  40  30
BRD  47  59  43  61 /  50  10  10  10
HYR  48  55  44  57 /  60  70  30  40
ASX  51  58  47  58 /  70  80  50  50

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LSZ121-
     146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday
     for LSZ144-145.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL


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