Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 202052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
352 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Cool and mostly cloudy tonight, then warmer with some morning sun
followed by increasing clouds from west to east Friday ahead of a
warm front.

A few rain showers/sprinkles today across the international border
aided by instability introduced by the cooler air aloft, some
surface heating, and plenty of moisture being advected in from the
northwest. Even a nice band of lake-enhanced snow showers from Lake
Winnipeg impacting parts of northwest Ontario! These scattered rain
showers/sprinkles across the border will dissipate this evening,
though as the moisture moves in across Lake Superior some lake-
enhanced showers are possible along the south shore in northwest
Wisconsin - maybe some sprinkles/flurries overnight tonight but
nothing significant.

Cloud cover will likely stick for at least part of the night due to
the stubborn stratus deck in place. A warm frontal zone approaches
from the west associated with the mid-level shortwave ridge moving
across the northern Plains tonight, which may cause some subsidence
to erode the cloud deck for a brief period. While the High Plains
has mostly clear skies under the ridge`s influence right now, with
the loss of surface heating tonight think the stratus will stand up
against the subsidence. There will be narrow band of drier air that
moves in at low levels ahead of the surface warm front which should,
in combination with the subsidence, cause some clearing skies
towards sunrise Friday, but for the most part leaned towards a
pessimistic sky cover forecast tonight. Lows tonight will be
strongly dependent on the cloud cover - in places where a few hours
of clearing is expected they should fall to the upper 20s, but
elsewhere in the low to mid 30s.

Increasing clouds from west to east as the warm front approaches.
Guidance generally slowed down the speed of the frontal zone and
large-scale forcing, so delayed the precipitation chances during the
day. Warmer with highs in the mid 40s to near 50 and a south wind 10-

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The Northland can look forward to a stretch of seasonable weather,
from this weekend through the middle of next week, with highs
generally in the upper 40s and lower 50s. The next opportunity for
any significant precipitation is not until the middle of next week
when a passing area of low pressure could bring rain to the
region. There are still no signs of any significant snow.

A passing trough of low pressure Friday night and Saturday will
likely remain mostly free of any precipitation, with most models
keeping any associated light pcpn north in Canada. However, the
Borderland and Arrowhead could get a little rain.

Warmer air will build into the Northland in the wake of the trough,
resulting a relatively warm day Saturday. Highs should reach the
lower to middle 50s. A weak clipper-like system will develop over
the Northern High Plains Saturday, and cut across the Northern
Plains into the Great Lakes through Sunday. It will probably bring
light rain to northern Minnesota, primarily north of Highway 2.

While the passing low will bring a brief dose of cooler air Sunday,
surface high pressure will move into the Northland Sunday night and
Monday, and an upper-level ridge will over the West will build into
the Central US into early next week. This scenario should provide
clearer weather for Monday.

Southerly flow will maintain the relatively seasonable weather for
the middle of the week. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian have a low
developing in the Central/Northern High Plains and moving towards
the southern Great Lakes during the middle of the week. It could
bring rain to as far north as the Northland. The Canadian is the
most aggressive with the rain, while the GFS and ECMWF generally
keep the rain south of the Northland.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Cold northwest flow across northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin is resulting in scattered to overcast ceilings from
around 1500 to 5000 ft agl as of early this afternoon. Expect some
lingering MVFR until at least the mid-afternoon, but a lifting
trend will likely return most areas to VFR by later this

There should be some scattering or clearing late today into
tonight as high pressure moves into the region, but it is possible
there could be lingering low ceilings, flirting with MVFR, through
much of tonight.

Southerly flow will develop by late Friday morning.


DLH  32  47  37  55 /  10   0  10   0
INL  29  48  36  53 /  10  10  20   0
BRD  34  51  37  59 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  31  49  37  58 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  34  48  38  57 /  10  10  10   0




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