Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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712
FXUS63 KDLH 272341
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Updated aviation section below...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The work week begins cool and cloudy, but with high pressure
building in skies will clear out tonight resulting in chilly,
perhaps near-record low temperatures. Sunny and seasonable Tuesday
as the area of high pressure weakens and drifts to the east.

On the synoptic scale a weak mid-level trough will exit to the east
across the upper Great Lakes while a weak mid/low level ridge builds
in behind it tonight. The coolest air aloft is expected this evening
on the back side of the trough with 850mb temps just skirting with
0C but remaining a few degrees on the positive side. This is
unseasonably cool for late June and if skies clear fast enough
(which they are expected to) lows could plummet to the low 40s, with
a few cold spots across the MN Arrowhead perhaps approaching the
upper 30s. MOS guidance is picking up on this quite well with NAM
(MET) MOS going with a record-breaking 36 at INL, GFS (MAV) MOS a
more reasonable 40, so went with a MOS blend for the overnight low
forecast. While drier air is moving in, patchy fog is possible
across parts of northwest Wisconsin overnight as skies clear, but
confidence in this is not especially high. Some model soundings
depict this possibility, but some of the short-range guidance is
less bullish.

Tuesday will be a near-perfect weather day with high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s, sunny skies, and a light west wind. Lake breeze
will likely push inland across the north shore in the afternoon and
a few mid-level clouds are possible across east-central MN, but
otherwise uneventful weather-wise.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Northwest flow will remain in place across the Northland Tuesday
evening. A departing upper ridge and approaching trof will lead to
height falls across the area through Thursday afternoon. A surface
low is forecast to move southeastward across the Hudson Bay pulling
a cool front southeast across the Northland. Showers and thunder-
storms will develop along and ahead of the front Wednesday,
continuing into the evening before winding down. The combination of
height falls and cold air advection behind the front Thursday will
set the stage for another round of showers, with a few isolated
thunderstorms.

Deterministic guidance diverges after the passage of the front. The
GFS brings another trough across the area on Friday while the
ECMWF and GEM are a bit slower and less robust featuring a transient
vort max and a less impressive trough. Kept the forecast dry for now
heading into the weekend, but certainly could justify adding POPs
with later updates.

The region will gradually transition from the northwest flow to a
more zonal, and eventually southwest flow, late in the weekend.
Warmer air will surge into the Northland on Sunday resulting in
another chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures through the long range will trend near or below
seasonal averages with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Stratus over the terminals this evening the main concern, as they
are flirting with mvfr criteria. KHIB and KDLH are MVFR as of
issuance time, but other locations are currently VFR. KINL is VFR
and should remain so. The stratus is slowly moving south and being
eroded from the north, so expect a gradual clearing trend from
north to south tonight. KBRD is VFR, but may get some MVFR
ceilings. Confidence is not high at this time and will have to
amend when diurnal trends become clear. KHYR currently VFR but
ceilings should lower to MVFR around sunset, before clearing out
again from the north in the 05z-08z time range. Once clearing
occurrs, expect the terminals to remain VFR through the rest of
the TAF period, and winds to remain less than 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

With an unseasonably cool airmass in place, clearing skies, and
high pressure centered over northeast Minnesota late tonight,
temperatures could approach the record low at International Falls.

Record Lows for June 28...

Duluth................40 in 1968
International Falls...38 in 1993

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  74  53  76 /  10   0   0  30
INL  40  74  53  77 /   0   0  20  50
BRD  48  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  30
HYR  44  74  50  78 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  45  70  51  77 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...LE
CLIMATE...JJM



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