Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281117
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
517 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 517 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

An area of low pressure will settle in over the Red River Valley
through the beginning of the work week resulting in continued
chances for light precipitation. Temperatures will be very warm
today in the warm sector of the low with highs approaching record
values in the mid to upper 40s. A dry slot evident on the early
morning radar composite will move into the Northland towards
daybreak as previously anticipated. A strip of instability will work
its way into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this
morning into the early afternoon which could lead to an isolated
thunderstorm, though guidance has trended away from the better
elevated instability previous model runs had been depicting. Light
rain chances return this afternoon into tonight as the low deepens,
especially for areas along the broad frontal zone along and north of
the Iron Range late tonight. While chances for precipitation are
lower today than they were last night, fog is expected to return due
to the warm air being advected over the snow pack that still exists
across much of the Northland. Breezy winds may help to keep
visibility values above a half mile, but pockets of dense fog are
possible. Weaker winds and slightly cooler Tuesday as the low
reaches maturation and slowly starts to exit the Red River Valley
towards central Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 517 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Sfc low pressure will eventually translate across the Northland
through Thursday. The associated mid-level shortwave trough becomes
less focused and more baggy, with a few waves of positive vorticity
advection energy circulating around the center of the mid-level low.
The warm air on the leeward side of the trough makes its way east,
setting up chances of light snow across the forecast area through
Thursday morning. There could be a mix of rain/snow Wednesday
morning as diabatic heating increases temperatures just above
freezing.

Temperatures then start taking a tumble Thursday as a northwesterly
flow regime sets up as the sfc low moves to the east. This will
support cold air advection as indicated by the decrease in 925 mb
temperatures in the GFS/NAM/ECMWF models. 925 mb temps drop to
between -1 to -6 degrees C Thursday afternoon. Highs Thursday will
range to below freezing across northern MN and above freezing in
northwest WI. This cold air advection regime will set up overcast
stratus cloud deck and possibly squeeze out a flurry across the
area, but confidence isn`t high enough at this point to put it in
the forecast. Friday looks to be mainly dry across the area, except
for north-central WI, which has a chance of light lake-enhanced
snow. Dry conditions continue through Saturday before another
shortwave moves through Sunday and Monday morning. Another chance of
light snow is possible for this period. Temperatures will hover
around freezing through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

There is very little change to the aviation forecast philosophy
for this TAF cycle. Large area of moderate to heavy rain will
continue to rotate northward across the Northland overnight along
with 2-5 mile visibilities and IFR/LIFR ceilings. The dry slot
will rotate northward late tonight and Monday, resulting in loss
of deep layer moisture and steady rain. However, drizzle, fog and
low ceilings should persist resulting in IFR or LIFR flight
conditions persisting through most of the period. Cold air
advecting from the west may be sufficient to result in the
beginning of the rain to snow transition process at KBRD the last
few hours of this TAF period. Finally, we have continued with LLWS
conditions through Monday morning at many sites with 35-40 knot
south winds just off the surface.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  36  39  32 /  60  70  40  30
INL  44  36  40  31 /  90  70  80  50
BRD  47  34  39  32 /  80  30  40  40
HYR  46  36  39  31 /  50  70  30  20
ASX  48  39  43  33 /  40  70  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ121-142>148.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon CST Tuesday
     for LSZ140-141.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...JTS



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