Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 181730
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Update for the new 18Z aviation discussion below.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

High pressure over the region has led to mostly clear skies and
light winds overnight which have allowed temperatures to drop into
the thirties for most areas as of 08Z. There were a few clouds
drifting through the area.

The high will move south and east today allowing the surface wind to
turn southerly for most areas.  A light lake breeze will again
develop today around all of western Lake Superior.  We do expect
some cumulus cloud development again but it should be less
widespread than yesterday for most areas. Better low level
convergence may aid in developing spotty showers over parts of the
Arrowhead this afternoon. Some of the high res CAMS support a low
pop and we kept the mention in that area. It will be warmer today
with highs in the mid sixties to lower seventies, cooler close to
Lake Superior.

Similar conditions to today will occur Thursday across the
Northland with highs in the upper sixties to lower seventies with
it again being cooler close to Lake Superior. We expect partly to
mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Warming trend continues through the weekend into early next week.
Generally dry until next Monday into Tuesday when a series of
showers and thunderstorms are expected.

On the synoptic scale a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from
southern Saskatchewan across the upper Mississippi valley Thursday
night into Friday which could bring some cloudiness, but no rainfall
is expected. Then a strong ridge builds across the Great Plains into
the Mississippi valley Saturday into Sunday...with the 500mb ridge
axis over the Twin Ports Sunday morning. Once this ridge axis moves
across the pattern becomes much more active because with a deep
longwave trough over the and the strong ridge then over the upper
Great Lakes, southwesterly flow brings in warm and moist air and a
number of embedded shortwave troughs through at least mid-week.
While a relatively fast flow will limit how long southerly flow can
bring moist gulf air up into the Northland, low level moisture will
be plenty sufficient for thunderstorms. At this point neither wind
profiles nor instability seems sufficient for severe thunderstorms,
but it`s still far enough out that this could change.

Temperatures continue to warm through the long term...highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s Friday then 70s through the weekend, with some
locations inland approaching 80 Sunday and Monday. While a cold
front will move east through the region Monday night temperatures
are not expected to dramatically fall as the airmass in the wake of
the low/front is not all that cool...850mb temps around 10-15C ahead
of the front falling to 5-10C Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Under the strong late-May sun relative humidity values will fall to
30 to 40 percent each afternoon through the weekend, but winds are
expected to be light out of the south under Sunday when breezy winds
develop ahead of a low. The more moist air being advected in with
these stronger winds will help to mitigate fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

The VFR conditions will continue through Thursday with clear
skies. Light southerly flow will develop today into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  42  69  44 /  10   0   0   0
INL  72  44  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  70  43  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
HYR  69  40  70  43 /  10   0  10   0
ASX  68  41  70  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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