Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
853 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS FOR RW- THROUGH 06Z HAS RADAR INDICATES
AREA OF PRCIP EXTENDING TO THE NW INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PRECIP
WIL BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT AND WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

REMOVED PRE-FIRST PERIOD. REFINED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT PRECIP
AND FUTURE TRENDS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

A SEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LINGER OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THE PERIOD.
TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUED TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LOBES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM...CONTINUING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA. EXPECT AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE
GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MN THIS EVENING...WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING...TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH...EXCEPT ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE NEAR TWO HARBORS WHERE ADIABATIC COMPRESSION LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S
NORTHEAST...TO NEAR 50 DEGREES NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AS LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY BREAK OVER THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND NEAR ALOFT WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL UNDER THE CLOUD DECK AND WHERE RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...WHILE AFTERNOON SUN IN MY SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE A
NICE BOOST IN THE SAME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S IN FAR
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE LOW 50S OVER MY FAR EASTERN ZONES.
UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ARE EXPECTED FROM THE HAYWARD LAKES TO THE
TWIN PORTS TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND AREAS WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THE FALL-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE LATE-SUMMER-LIKE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
COOL...CLOUDY...WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BECOMING WARMER AND DRIER WITH MORE SUN BY WED AND THUR.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE LINGERING LOW TO THE EAST WILL BE A
CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF COOL CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
PERSISTENT CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY NW WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TUESDAY
MORNING...AND REACH ONLY INTO THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF
SUN FROM THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 20
MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE
40S WED MORNING...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S WED AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO PARTS OF N-CENTRAL WI
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE COOL AIR ALOFT STEEPENS LAPSE
RATES ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TUE AS THE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SLIDES EWD WHILE FLATTENING OUT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO MARCH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

MAINLY MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. CONDTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR AT INL AND BRD WITH
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  56  47  66 /  60  20  20  10
INL  45  55  43  64 /  60  30   0   0
BRD  48  66  46  70 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  48  58  46  65 /  40  20  10   0
ASX  49  57  48  66 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>145-
     148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART



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