Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
959 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 957 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Tweeked mention of t-storm area the next few hours. Good news is
that the storms in NW MN will clear out of Bemidji area by 06z.
Isold storm still holding on west of DVL (from Minot area
earlier). To better blend with MPX and DLH I did add some areas of
fog to SE fcst area BJI-FFM areas east. Have noticed that surge of
low level moisture moving NNE 60 dew pt in Aberdeen to Marshall MN


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through overnight)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Forecast impacts this evening and into the overnight will continue
to be strong SE winds and showers with embedded thunder possibly.
Strong WAA continues to provide broad scale lift and as a
result intermittent light rain continues to slowly lift to the
northeast mainly north of across the FA. SFC trough is pushing
into the western Dakotas early this afternoon. Ahead of the trough
a narrow axis of instability, most unstable CAPE in the 500 to
1000j/kg range, will continue to nose northward into central
North Dakota. Will add a chance of thunder along this axis as
models continue to trend towards convective development in the
late afternoon across the western portions of the FA and quickly
move the broken line to the east this evening. Deeper moisture
east of the valley will allow coverage of the precipitation
coverage to expand across the trees and lakes country. Another
warm overnight expected as temperatures remain in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Monday...Shower potential and QPF will be the main concerns as the
next upper wave ejecting from the west coast spreads synoptic
forcing across the region. Guidance is in decent agreement with
timing and location of this feature...along with mid-level
frontogenesis. Given the anticipated forcing mechanisms expect
banded showers across southeast North Dakota and west central
Minnesota...with most locations receiving 0.10 to 0.20 inches of
rainfall and isolated heavier amounts (up to an inch) where stronger
precip bands set up.

Tuesday-Sunday...Northwest flow aloft develops by mid-week...with
multiple quick moving upper waves affecting the region. For the most
part have a dry forecast given predictability of these events is
quite impacts would be very low.  Cold front swings
through on Tuesday...leaving the region in near normal


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Main issues are if any MVFR or even IFR cigs develop overnight in
a zone from Fergus Falls to Bemidji. Models show this idea
happening still and with area seeing the more moist low levels
after dark as system moves north it isnt unreasonable that lower
cigs form. Also considering area is higher terrain. Otherwise VFR
in the RRV and E ND thru the night into Monday as south-southeast
winds diminish.




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