Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130553
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Did raise temps a couple degrees in the immediate RRV as temps
slower to fall. Cold either side though. No other changes as skies
clear.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

A cold dome of Arctic Air will settle across Red River Basin
through the overnight hours. With a freshened snowpack, clear
skies, and light northwesterly winds becoming light and
variable... we can expect temperatures to drop into and 20s below
zero overnight with wind chills vacillating between the 30s to
40s below zero.

Fair skies and light winds will persist through the day forenoon
on Saturday, with winds starting to turn from the south and
increase a bit through Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will
struggle up to the single digits below zero across most of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Models continue showing general agreement through the extended
period and will keep a blended soln for this forecast package...with
the main impact being slightly modified temperatures on Sunday to
start the period...with a secondary arctic blast for the first part
of next week.

For Saturday night...arctic high pressure shifts south as the upper
level trough begins pushing south and east. Weak upper ridge
amplification over the high plains will provide slight relief from
the bitter cold temperatures for Sunday...although values will
remain below normal. Another upper level trof will dig south
bringing a second shot of arctic air from Sunday night into
Tuesday...before shifting farther southeast.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday...a significant shift in the upper
level pattern is anticipated. Upper level ridge amplification over
the intermountain west and across the northern plains will result in
return flow and warm advection across the area...as the arctic high
shifts into the Ohio valley and across the mid-Atlantic states.
Thus...will see much warmer temperatures return to the area...with
high temperatures rebounding into the upper 20s to low 30s.

The best chances for precipitation will be during the day
Sunday...with little precipitation forecast beyond through the rest
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Skies clear through most of the day with a light wind...turning
southerly Sat late aftn/night ahead of next front. Some high/mid
clouds drifting southeast ahd of it Saturday night.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for NDZ052-053.

     Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM CST Saturday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for MNZ029>032-040.

     Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM CST Saturday for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Riddle



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