Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150450
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO DVL BASIN AT 05Z WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS EAST OF HIGH. SKIES CLEAR. UPSTREAM THIN CIRRUS WILL BEING
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NW FCST AREA OVERNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH 5-10 NORTHEAST FCST
AREA TO TEENS ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL A SPREAD ON QPF AND
AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WHICH MAY AFFECT THE FAR SE FA.
WILL CURRENTLY FOLLOW PREFERRED BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

CURRENT POPCORN SHSN ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT LEFT SHSN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE
CU FIELD SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE LEAVING FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD COLUMN IN PLACE WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND SOME WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A BIT WARMER.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE SHOULD GET INTO NW FA
SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR FSD BY MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS WITH BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AS SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES EAST ON WEDNESDAY MAIN CONCERN IS WHERE
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND SETS UP. ECMWF OVERALL WEAKEST ON QPF. GFS
SHOWS MAIN SNOW BAND JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA WITH GEM/NAM FARTHER
NORTH IMPACTING SE TIER OF COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SE HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

SNOW SHOULD PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE FA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A 500MB
TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEAK RIDGING REPLACES IT. 850MB
TEMPS STILL BELOW ZERO SO FRI TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH NEXT TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING IN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN MIXED AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY START SEEING SOME RIDGING AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DETAILS STILL VAGUE THIS FAR OUT WITH SOME MODELS QUICKER ON
WARMING THAN OTHERS. DESPITE THAT WILL STICK WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS
WHICH INDICATE HIGHS FINALLY RISING BACK TO THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINDS TO DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST AND THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS OR SO DVL BASIN AND THEN RRV TUESDAY
MIDDAY-AFTN. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TUES AFTN-
EVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO DVL BASIN
BY 06Z WED BUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING LEFT PRECIP OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE HALLOCK GAGE SEEMS TO BE WORKING
AGAIN. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS CRESTING IN MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE...WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...OSLO AND GRAND FORKS CONTINUE TO FALL. STAGES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH A CREST AT DRAYTON IN MINOR
FLOOD STAGE MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT PEMBINA OVER THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.TO

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI






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