Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Cold front at 08z was moving into the Red River valley. Clearing
slot moving east as well and approaching the Red River. However
fast on its heels is an advancing area of stratocu moving
southeast in 850 mb cold advection. Winds increasing in this
region to the 15-25 kt range.

Light rain and pockets of mixed precip will be exiting NW MN fcst
area before 12z.

Main question today is light precip chances and precip type in NW
MN along with wind speeds. 925 mb winds in the 35 kt range with
sfc wind speeds progged low 20kt range sustained today. Clouds
should cover most areas...thickest northern half...then clearing
will work in from the west later this aftn and tonight. For the
time being kept wind speeds just blo advisory criteria but will
bare watching. Upstream radars in MB/SK and obs indicate areas of
light snow and areas of very light precipitation should move
southeast into parts of NE ND this morning and thru NW MN midday-
aftn ending this evening. Precip type indictes should be a mix of
-ra/-sn in NW MN thru the day due to colder sfc temps and colder
temps aloft moving in. Patchy fzdl also possible for a time this
morning in NW MN.  Precipitation intensity and amounts are light
so no issues are anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Warm advection high clouds move in Saturday as high sits over NW
MN in the morning and moves east during the day. Signifcant
warming occurs at 925-850 mb layer Saturday night with 850 mb
thermal ridge peaking 12z Sun with +10 to +16C 850 mb temps at
that time. Thermal ridge moves east and cold front moves through
Sunday daytime. But as winds turn west Sunday aftn do expect a
good deal of warming before low level colder air moves in Sun
night. Went a bit above blended guidance max T`s for Sunday with
temps well into the 50s SE ND into parts of WC/NW MN.
Precipitation with this front is looking very minimal attm so
continued lowering pops.

Monday to Thursday...The first half of the week is expected to be
dry as NW flow aloft and SFC high pressure influence the northern
plains through Wednesday. Highs in the 30s and 40s Monday and
Tuesday with the colder day being Tuesday as the center of the cool
high pressure system tracks to the north of the area. 500mb ridging
and an active SW flow quickly push the SFC high east and bring
increasing moisture for daytime rain and nighttime snow chances
Wednesday and Thursday morning. There is good agreement that by
daytime Thursday in the 500mb solns for storm system setting up
across the high plains. Placement and track of the sfc and 500mb low
bears watching for a significant system across the central and or
northern plains Thursday night into next Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Some fog has started to form on the back edge of the stratus over
the KDVL area, but it should be short lived as drier air moves in
from the west. That improvement will also be short lived as more
stratus moves in from the northwest later tonight. The second wave
of stratus seems to be overtaking the first so have most staying
MVFR or IFR although KDVL could get a brief break in the next few
hours. Rain will move out of the Red River TAF sites in the next
hour but hang on longer at KTVF and KBJI. Some -RASN mix is not
out of the question at KBJI later overnight. IFR to MVFR clouds
will hang around for much of the day tomorrow as colder air moves
in from the north, although some breaks in the west late in the
period are not out of the question. Winds will shift to the west
in the next few hours as a surface trough moves through, then more
to the northwest by morning. Northwesterly winds will increase to
20 kts or more with gusts near 30 kts tomorrow, then diminish
after sunset.




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