993
FXUS63 KFGF 292012
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region
  Tuesday afternoon and again later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Upper low spinning over central MN continues to lift
northeastward this afternoon, and should be in Ontario by
tonight. This should allow some brief ridging to move in between
systems. Weak surface ridging over the CWA will slowly give way
so southeasterly winds at least on the ND side. Could see a bit
of patchy fog/mist development even if clouds linger given
recent visibility trends, although probabilities of less than a
half a mile are under 10 percent.

The quiet conditions will be short lived as another upper low
moves into the northern Rockies tomorrow and ejects a strong
lead shortwave into the eastern Plains. Southeasterly winds
ahead of the surface trough should bring at least some
marginally warmer temperatures tomorrow afternoon, and some of
the ensemble members bring some CAPE up to 500 J/kg into our
west central MN counties, but most are lower. There is the
threat of some lightning impacts but all the updraft helicity
tracks are well to our south and think our chances of seeing
any stronger convection are less than 10 percent. The rain will
lift northeastward into Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with another quick break in precip rounds expected for mid-week.

Thursday into Friday, the upper trough over the Rockies starts
to kick out into the Plains and then lift off into Canada. There
is still quite a bit of variation in the exact track of how the
ensemble members handle the low. Probabilities of at least a
quarter of an inch of rain are 30 to 40 percent across most of
the CWA, so it seems like there will be a good chance for
another wetting rain. For the weekend and into Monday, there
continues to be a signal for a fairly active pattern, but timing
is all over the place. One cluster is showing a trough at the
same time as another cluster a ridge over the Plains. Thus, will
keep the 20-30 POPs and near average temps the mean gives us.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions as light rain and drizzle along
with some light mist continues over the forecast area. Some
models indicate some fog developing later tonight, but
confidence is not high as the upper system pulls away and it
does not seem like we will get much clearing even with light
winds. Will keep visibility in the 3-5SM range and not go any
lower for now. Ceilings will be mostly in the MVFR to IFR range,
then improve mostly to MVFR by the end of the period. Winds
will be light and variable then pick up out of the southeast by
Tuesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR