Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250420

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

No changes.

UPDATE Issued at 938 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Isolated shra/-tsra should dissipate or exit the FA in the next
hour. No changes needed.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Trimmed back on coverage of isolated T across far northern Mn. No
other changes.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Any showers this evening and then temperatures will be the main
forecast concerns for the period.

Plenty of cumulus clouds have developed over the northern two
thirds of the forecast area. No showers or storms so far even with
1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE. However, there is a weak
reinforcing vort max rotating around the back of the upper trough
through southern Manitoba. Some radar returns have started to
develop north of the border, and the high res models have some of
that activity moving into our north and east during the 4 to 8 PM
time frame. Think that coverage will be more isolated to widely
scattered, so have 20-30 POPs across the northern Red River Valley
into northwest MN. Deep layer shear is less than 25 kts so any
stronger cells that do managed to form will be more of the pulse
type and short lived.

The convective activity will dissipate quickly after sunset, and
weak surface high pressure will set up just to the south of the
CWA. Light west winds overnight should keep lows in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Flow becomes near zonal for tomorrow, and the models
hint at some very weak shortwaves approaching through the western
Dakotas. However, think that precip will stay to the west of the
CWA throughout the daytime hours on Monday as none of the short
range or global models have much of anything east of the Missouri
River before 00Z. Winds will shift to the south and temps will be
a bit warmer with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Still have somewhat of a flat zonal flow for Monday night into
Tuesday. Models show pcpn moving up into eastern ND and northwest MN
mainly after midnight Monday night and lingering across the area
during the day Tuesday. Fairly weak sfc flow, but a weak frontal
boundary hangs up east-west somewhere across the middle FA. Looks
like weak sfc high pressure tries to build across southern Canada
into Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore pcpn chances look to be
a little better south of the highway 2 corridor through this period,
with lesser chances near the Canadian border.

For Wednesday night through Sunday...zonal flow transitions more to
northwest flow aloft for most of this time frame. Guidance shows at
least scattered shower and thunderstorm development, although there
will be dry periods too. By Saturday night into Sunday some weak
ridging begins to move into the northern plains. This should put an
end to pcpn chances, at least on a short term basis. Temps look to
remain fairly normal for late July.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

VFR through the period with light winds.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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