Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 070535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Still seeing some wind gusts to 45 mph in spots over the Devils
Lake basin with a bit less over the Red River Valley. Hard pressed
to find too many sites reporting vsbys below a quarter of a mile,
but think they are still out there. As some of the snow bands move
through the vsbys drop but also think conditions are the worst in
open country. Therefore no changes planned for the headlines at
this point, and the next shift can take another look at them.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Winter storm continues to create blizzard conditions across much
of eastern ND and into parts of NW MN. Upper wave and SFC low
starting to make some headway finally moving east with over the
last couple hours with the low centered between Fosston and
Bemidji. 925mb winds on the southwest side of the continue to mix
to the sfc with area METARS showing persistent gusts at Fargo and
Valley City in the 40 to 45kt range and 35 kts at Grand Forks and
Devils Lake. These winds combined with area snowfall totals of up
to 12 to 15 inches across the north central RRV and continuous
light snow from the elongated deformation zone are producing
widespread whiteout conditions. I29 and I94 are closed north and
west of Fargo along with Hwy 2 west of Grand Forks to Lakota.

Light snow under the def zone will continue into the evening and
overnight ever so slowly weakening in the west and sliding east.
An additional 1 to 4 inches are possible overnight. Cyclonic flow
will continue to create enough lift for light snow throughout the
day on Wednesday with another round of 1 to 2 inch accumulations.
Winds will gradually lessen however some blowing snow will
continue into the overnight. Temperatures will remain rather
steady overnight falling a few degrees from current readings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Deep layered cyclonic flow will still be evident Wednesday night
into early Thursday with some residual snow shower activity. Winds
will still be up through the daylight hours as northwest flow takes
hold reflected at surface by NW winds at 10-15 kts. We`ll dip below
zero Thur night for first time in a long while as combination of
easing gradient/winds, at least partly cloudy skies and plenty of
snow cover ease the mercury as low as 10 below over the Devils Lake
basin. 1040 mb high on Friday should keep it dry and cold with 850
mb temps at minus 15 to 20 yielding surface readings in single
numbers above zero.

For the weekend and into early next week zonal flow develops
with a couple of shortwaves moving through quickly. The strongest
model signal for accumulating snow is around the late
Saturday/early Sunday period; this time the southern valley would
appear to be favored. Temperatures will moderate a bit ahead of
the first wave, although this will mean highs only in the teens
for most places on Saturday. The passage of the first feature with
potential reinforcement by Monday will bring single digit highs
back for Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Have kept the timing from the previous set of TAFs, keeping things
pretty stagnant from where they are now...through about 15z. At
that point will go with slightly higher vsbys. Models continue to
show another band of steadier snow dropping from north to south
across the area on Wednesday. This of course would affect the four
northern TAF sites by mid afternoon, and Fargo more toward 00z
Thursday. Not sure how low vsbys will get with this next bout of
snow, but did drop them fairly significantly.


ND...Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-

MN...Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001>004-007-008-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005-006-



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