Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221954
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






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