Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Still seeing variable visibilities from fog from Cando to areas
west of Devils Lake. Temperature dew point spreads are fairly
tight across the entire FA, but think steady north winds in the
Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota will keep the fog from
getting too bad.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Much of the forecast area is currently squeezed between a weak
Clipper system crossing central Manitoba... and a Colorado Low
type winter storm still taking shape in the Central Plains. The
northern Clipper will continue to push a broad area of low clouds
down through the northern Red River Valley and portions of
Northwest MN tonight through Monday morning. The southern Colorado
Low will continue to pump mid and upper level moisture over the
southern RRV and west central MN... while the lower clouds and
snow should mainly impact portions of eastern South Dakota and
southern MN.

Of local concern...areas of dense fog are likely to persist or
redevelop over portions of the Devils Lake Basin from now through
late Monday morning. A fairly stagnant airmass is in position
there, with little to no cloud cover aloft... allowing for
additional radiative cooling with sunset.

Over portions of northwest Minnesota where patchy fog has been
occurring... the more widespread low to mid level cloud cover
should inhibit widespread dense fog, but it will allow patchy
ground fog to form throughout the overnight period.

Otherwise... expect mainly cloudy conditions with a light
northeast boundary layer flow across the area overnight tonight...
and through the day on Monday. A slight cool advection will allow
temperatures to settle into the upper teens and lower twenties
overnight... than warm only into the lower to mid 20s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The general pattern through Friday is dominated by upper level
ridging. This leads to little to no expected precipitation and above
normal temperatures. Highs in the twenties Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Saturday with Thursday and Friday warmer in the thirties. Cooler
than normal temperatures look likely to return Sunday.

A weak clipper is still expected late Tuesday into Wednesday. This
clipper could bring a short period of light snow in northwest
Minnesota as it passes.

The next chance for snow comes late this week as a low develops off
of the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and moves into the Upper
Midwest. Deterministic models still give different tracks through
the Upper Midwest for the low. Looking to ensemble results, the GEFS
members have many differences and also significant run to run
variability. So while the different deterministic model results
consistently have snow in the area, mainly northwest Minnesota,
confidence in the location and amount of snow is still low.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Do not expect much change in the TAFs for the next 24 hours. Some
ceilings may rise a little while others may fall slightly, but
overall they will stay fairly stagnant. The lowest vsbys have been
around KDVL, where winds will stay the lightest. Think there will
be some fluctuation in vsbys around KDVL, as they have through
the evening. Other sites will keep steady north winds, which
should limit the fog from getting too thick.




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