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000
FXUS63 KFGF 291744
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY BUT IS A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH RIGHT NOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE TO GO WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST DRY AS THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ANY PCPN
IF IT DEVELOPS STAYING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES WERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AND WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
LOWEST. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS WE MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SPOTS OF
PATCHY FOG FORMATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS PICK UP JUST A BIT AND MIX 850MB TEMPS IN
THE TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH AND HAS DECENT QPF OVER THE
VALLEY...BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST. PLACEMENT OF SUCH MINOR DISTURBANCES
THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE 20 POPS WE
HAVE GOING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER AND MONITOR FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONSISTENCY FOR THE EXTENDED
WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INFLUENCE FELT BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CHC THUNDER THRU THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TIED TO RIDGE RIDER AND POSSIBLE FROPA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIODS. CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LOWERED
VSBYS DUE TO FOG/MIST IN THE MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT LOCATIONS TO MENTION ON THIS SET OF TAFS. WEAK NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...SPEICHER