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000
FXUS63 KFGF 160852
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
352 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST N OF YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SE TODAY. AS THE
COLD MID LEVELS MOVE OVER THE CWFA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
INSTABILITY/CLOUDS/POPS WILL INCREASE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA TO PEAK IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 400 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHTS SCENARIO.

THE WEAK SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG A FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE BEST PUSH OF COOLER BLYR AIR IN THE 00Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER MONDAY HIGHS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY. MONDAY POP POTENTIAL MORE UNCERTAIN AS COLD POOL WILL STILL
BE PRESENT THOUGH SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

COOLER FOR MONDAY AS

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP THREAT ENDS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEPARTS TO
THE SE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW. TUESDAY SFC HIGH TO THE SE WILL
GENERATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALLOWING A SLOW RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND WAA IN THE BLYR. MODELS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF
WITH THE WEAK WAA...ALONG THE 850MB CONVERGENCE...LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AS THE MODELS ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRANSITION FROM UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR WEST IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND THERE WILL BE A FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAINTAINED SOME
LOW POPS THEN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. NOT SURE OF EXACT PLACEMENT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT MAINTAINED FAIRLY HIGH POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS
WELL AS HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH THE PATTERN SET UP THE WAY IT IS WILL KEEP
THE 30-50 POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE IN THE 60S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DROP IN FROM CANADA LATE
TOMORROW MORNING FOR DVL/GFK AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR TVF/BJI. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING TO GO WITH PREDOMINANT GROUPS...SO
ADDED VCNTY SHOWERS ACCORDINGLY. ADDED VCNTY TSTMS FOR BJI AS I
EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDS. NW WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 17/0200Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...SPEICHER