881
FXUS63 KFGF 110301
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible in parts of northeast North Dakota
  and far northwest Minnesota late thursday afternoon and night,
  with a risk level of 1 out of 5.

- Severe storms possible parts of northwest and west central
  Minnesota Friday afternoon, with a risk level 1 out of 5.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

All signs point to the BL decoupling with increasing MLCIN
across our CWA, with the lone exception our far northwest where
RAP analysis shows lower city in proximity to the cold front
entering the northern Devils Lake Basin. MLCAPE is in the
3000-4000 J/KG in that region, with DCAPE axis to the south
1000-1300 J/KG. Shear remains on the weaker side (particularly
lower level shear) though effective shear near 25kt is still
enough for some brief organization. The mid level impulse where
most forcing is mainly north of the International Border with
more organized forcing with the mid level trough still offset to
well to the northwest where conditions will be much more
stable. We are in a window where isolated strong to marginally
severe hail and wind (quarters and 60 mph) would still be
threats in the Devils Lake Basin over the next few hours.

However, the trend will be towards any parcels to become
elevated with further low level decoupling and the drier BL flow
behind the cold front. In absence of organized ascent and lack
of true LLJ until Friday morning we may not have much more of a
chance for an organized severe threat despite lingering
elevated instability into the overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

We are monitoring upstream trends north of Minot where
supercells have developed along the cold frontal zone and near
the axis of 2500-3500 MLCAPE. This frontal zone is also where
better shear has been in place. The question is how far east
this initial activity holds together as it moves away from
better forcing. There also appears to be a meso low just
southwest of the Devils Lake Basin that could act as another
feature for development before sunset. There is enough
instability through the Devils Lake Basin where MLCIN is shown
by RAP analysis to be near zero to at least support a window for
severe in our northwest as this activity moving east. With
shear much more marginal (less than 25kt 0-3km and 0-6km) the
primary threat would be severe wind gusts outside of taller
cores.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...Synopsis...

West to southwest flow over the Dakotas, with the main shortwave
over SD and several weak vorts moving through ND. Surface trough
is still out over central ND, with plenty of moisture and
capped instability out ahead of it. Cold front just behind the
trough axis will move through tonight into tomorrow, with
surface high pressure building in behind it for Saturday. Some
smoke coming down to the surface is possible behind the front,
with a few of the models showing moderate to high
concentrations, so included a mention in the forecast. A weak
shortwave moving through northwest flow on Sunday, but better
precipitation chances when flow returns to the west- southwest
and a stronger shortwave comes in late Monday into Tuesday.
Troughing behind the shortwave for Wednesday into Thursday
should bring some cooler temperatures.

...Marginal risk this afternoon/tonight...

Still capped to surface based convection but the SPC
mesoanalysis page has CIN weakening over our area. Best upper
forcing is to our south but there is at least some convergence
along the surface trough. Most cumulus is either to our south or
over southwestern Saskatchewan, but can`t completely rule out
something popping over our CWA. CAMs are of no help currently
given recent performance. Better precipitation chances near the
Canadian border later tonight as the main cold front moves in
along with some cooler mid-level temps. Don`t expect widespread
severe given deep layer bulk shear around 25 kts, but can`t
completely rule out something pulsing up so isolated severe
mention across our north seems reasonable.

...Marginal risk Friday...

Cold front will be through our ND counties by tomorrow morning,
but will still be hanging around portions of northwestern and
west central MN. Still the potential for plenty of instability
out ahead of the front, with probabilities of CAPE over 2000
J/kg around 60 to 70 percent in portions of our southeastern
counties. Shear not very impressive as all of the stronger
values are behind the front in the stable air, but can`t rule
out a few cells firing along the boundary and getting pretty
strong before they move off the east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through this evening, with less
certainty as a cold front brings areas of smoke to the region.
Upstream trends in Canada support MVFR vis once this front
arrives Friday morning, with a low chance for brief IFR if the
smoke is dense enough immediately behind the front. There are
thunderstorm chances across the region through the night, with
better chances early in the TAF period over northeast ND towards
KDVL. How thunderstorm coverage/development unfolds tonight
then Friday remain highly uncertain though and I held off on
introducing mention in TAFs at this time.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR