Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KFGF 240445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Issued at 931 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Very weak instability with MLCAPE mainly southeast of CWA, as
supported by lightning being confined to eastern SD and w cntrl MN
just south of our FA. Will lower threat for overnight isold TS
Grand County through southeastern Otter Tail county. Fine tuned
POP grids but overall evolving as expected.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Rain showers have now entered srn RRV and will continue to lift
north throughout the night. Made some changes to POPs with latest
ECAM guidance which does seem a bit pulled the higher
POPs about a county further north each hour. No changes beyond


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Short wave energy associated with strengthening upper jet will
expand rain shield to our south remainder of the afternoon into
tonight propagating northeast into the fa overnight into Sunday.
As it does low level boundary retrogrades westward with quite a
bit of overrunning rain into the fa. Convective parameters weak
however airmass moist with precipitable h2o values from 1.25-1.75
inches should aid in a respectable rain event for parts of the
the region mainly close to mentioned surface boundary. Based on
clouds and expected dewpoints lows will range from the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

A soggy Sunday for most areas with most significant rain from
southeast north dakota into nw Minnesota. Little recovery in
temperatures expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Rain will finally shift east Sunday night as jet axis and
associated boundary pushes back east. Rain should be through all
but the far east by morning. Clouds likely to linger and with cool
airmass in place temperatures will continue in the 50s.

Main chunk of energy with western trough lifts ne Monday. Just
how far east low level boundary gets will determine rain potential
later Monday into Monday night. Cool temperatures to continue.

Guidance continues to suggest the upper level trough currently over
the Great Basin is expected to split with its northern stream moving
through the Dakotas on Tuesday. DCVA over the Upper Midwest will
allow a surface low to develop along a southwest-northeast boundary
within Iowa, Wisconsin, and into the UP of Michigan. Guidance
differs with moisture transport around the northwestern side of this
surface low keeping confidence of rainfall amounts and placement
somewhat on the lower side. At this time, eastern and southeastern
counties within the CWA hold the best chance of seeing rainfall
Tuesday. By Wednesday, AVA aloft will dry things out. This is short
lived however as another upper level low moves towards the region,
this time from Manitoba/Ontario into the Upper Midwest/Western Great
Lakes. Run to run guidance has varied greatly with this system, but
there is a chance of rain attached to a cold front associated with
this system around the Thursday timeframe. Surface high pressure is
then expected to nudge into the area Friday into Saturday drying
things out again.

Temperatures are expected to remain on the cooler side with no
appreciable return flow expected throughout the period. Also, frost
potential will need to be monitored Friday and Saturday mornings
behind the late week cold front. Late period differences keep
confidence low at the moment, however the combination of a cool
airmass aloft and building high pressure may aid in this


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Predominantly MVFR cigs to continue across the northern valley and
northeastern North Dakota while IFR over west central MN spreads
north and west into FAR and other areas in southeast ND. Will see
one category improvement for short durations throughout the night
but difficult to time so no mention as a TEMPO in TAFs. Expect
areas currently not raining to see showers redevelop or move into
those areas (GFK/TVF) throughout the night.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.