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000
FXUS63 KFGF 270004
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
704 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Western edge of clouds clearing now a bit east with clearing now
into Roseau-Fosston and Park Rapids. It may clear or scatter out a
bit more eastward before halting this evening. Otherwise skies
clear in the RRV and E ND. Issue overnight are temps. Fcst on the
colder side of most guidance and hard pressed to see it any colder
than we have in eastern ND with 35-37 in the western fcst area.
Most short range guidance is a bit warmer...closer to 40. That
said will not alter advisory area but confidence pretty high that
no need to expand it farther east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Main forecast challenges will be decreasing winds tonight followed
by frost chances tonight and Tuesday night. Winds have generally
been a little lower this afternoon than they were yesterday, but
there are still a few sites that have been brushing with advisory
criteria again. However, it has not been long enough or widespread
enough to justify another advisory. Morning showers over the far
northeast have moved east of the FA, so will not include any more
mention of them tonight. Winds will get lightest west of the Red
River Valley tonight, and with the dry air in place should see
some frost there. For that reason issued a frost advisory for that
area tonight. Expect less wind on Tuesday, but there could be a
few more showers in the far east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Tuesday night through the end of the week will be predominately
dry with moderating temperatures. First concern will be Wednesday
morning with the SFC high pressure system over the FA there will be
frost potential along and west of the valley. Clouds and better
mixing to leave the eastern areas with less potential for temps to
drop off. 500mb ridging continues to build over the central US and
into southern Canada Wednesday into Thursday and Friday. This will
allow daytime highs to reach into the upper 60s and low 70s
Wednesday through Sunday. Some chance PoPs work into the FA with
500mb SW flow by Sunday and Monday with moisture limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

TVF and BJI on the western edge of the clouds around the upper
trough over Ontario. Some clearing will be observed eastward this
evening...possibly to BJI. But all models indicate a surge back
west of some MVFR or low end VFR clouds Tuesday as another vort
lobe rotates around the trough and then kicks it east. Otherwise
expect a clear sky eastern ND. Winds diminishing this evening but
holding northwest in direction into Tuesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Riddle