Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221200 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL ALLOW REMAINING FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT AFTER CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT REVEALED NO
MAJOR ISSUES. REMOVED SLIVER OF 20 POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA AT 12 UTC AS PRECIP HAS MOVED WELL EAST INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. ALSO UPDATED SKY/TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ALLOW WAKE LOW INDUCED HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT. AFTER INITIAL HIGH WIND REPORT A GFK...
STRONGER WINDS HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE FARTHER EAST INTO
NORTHWEST MN. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SFC LOW AROUND 30 MPH...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. OTHER FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING STILL ON
TRACK FROM HEAVIER RAIN LAST EVENING.

LAST OF WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH LAKE OF THE
WOODS/BELTRAMI/CLEARWATER COUNTIES AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12 UTC. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE. SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
FAIR WEATHER THERMAL CU...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOVE IN
BY THE NOON HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE GORGEOUS WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM TODAYS HIGHS
WITH MAXIMUM VALUES FROM THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL VERY SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND ITS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL INCREASE CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THURSDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN ND
INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG NARROW PLUME OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGING...AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH
EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
THAN FORECASTED).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IFR CEILINGS AT KBJI SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
THERMAL CU IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CEILINGS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE 4000 KFT AGL OR HIGHER. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTVF AND KBJI.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS





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