Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230857
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
357 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The forecast challenge for today will once again be convection. A
cold front will move across the CWA this afternoon, reaching the
RRV around mid afternoon and then into west central MN in the
early evening. One concern will be how much heating can occur due
to morning cloud cover across most of eastern ND. If the
atmosphere clears out and becomes well heated, PWAT values on the
order of 2 inches will provide ample juice to have a potential
severe outbreak this afternoon. GFS/NAM indicating a MCS
developing mid afternoon over eastern ND in an area of 3000 to
3500 J/KG BL CAPE and then shifting to the southeast into the MPX
CWA. While CAPEs are quite impressive, deep layer shear should
only be around 30 to 40 knots however DCAPEs around 1500 J/KG will
makes severe winds a threat mainly across the southern valley and
portions of west central MN. This region is where SPC has issued
an enhanced threat for severe weather. Heavy rainshowers are also
expected with storms in this region with the high PWAT
values...however storms are expected to be moving quick enough
across the south to limit flash flooding potential.

The front will move quickly across the CWA and convection should
begin to decline by mid-evening, moving out of eastern zones by
midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Upstream ridging aloft will keep the region dry for Sunday and
Monday, and cooler air behind the departing cold front will bring
daytime highs into the upper 70s for most of the region Sunday
before climbing back into the 80s on Monday. Zonal flow then sets
up and a series of short waves will impact much of the long term
period.

Long wave pattern is quite zonal. Long wave pattern amplifies a bit
by the end of the period with a flat ridge over western Canada and a
flat trough over eastern North America. Short waves will move
through the flow over Ontario and send frontal boundaries into the
area on Tue/Wed. The ECMWF was a little faster than the GFS. Will
blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures for Tue through Fri...a degree or
higher on Tue and Wed and a degree or lower for Thu and Fri than
yesterdays forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

All sites are VFR with cirrus blow off from convection to our
west. Showers and a few storms will push into the KDVL area
shortly, then be in the central TAF sites towards early morning.
After a brief break, more storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon, so have another round of VCTS. Will keep ceilings
around 6000-9000 ft except KDVL may be a bit lower but still VFR.
Winds will increase out of the southeast, then shift around to the
southwest and then west as a cold front moves in. Convection
should end behind the cold front.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Speicher
AVIATION...JR



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