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000
FXUS63 KFGF 120027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
727 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

UPDATES WERE DONE TO MOSTLY POPS AS TO GO DRY THRU 03Z THEN
INCREASE POPS MOSTLY SOUTH 03Z-06Z AS ALL MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IN THIS PERIOD STREAKING EAST. INTIAL ISSUE IS SATURATION
AS QUITE DRY AIRMASS IN THE SOUTH...BUT THIS SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BUT MAY TAKE QUITE A WHILE. DID INCREASE POPS AS PREV FCST TO
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP AREA TRIES TO MOVE EAST...BUT
ADVANCEMENT MAY BE A TAD FAST INTO NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ALSO
ADJUSTED PTYPES A BIT AND HAD MORE RAIN AT LOWER TEMPS 35 AND
ABOVE. ALSO ADJUSTED TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR EVENT TO SNOW AMTS BASED
ON SFC TEMPS INSTEAD OF RATIOS WHICH GAVE LOWER AMOUNTS WITH
1-1.50 ALONG THE ND/MANITOBA BORDER WITH ZERO TO TRACE IN GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/RAIN SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AND PREFER THE ECMWF.

FOR TONIGHT...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL DEVELOP ON THE 290K SFC. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTH WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTH CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER TO THE NORTH AND
WARMER SOUTH...WITH A GOOD THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE
RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
LACK OF HIGH PRECIP RATES...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS SHOULD
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR. WE WON/T MENTION
ANY FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
CAN MOVE IN LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THEN SOME ICE IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH
AND AROUND 60 FAR SOUTH AND COULD COOL DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH.

ON SAT NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND BRISK NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 30 MPH...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. TEMPS WILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...THE NW 500MB FLOW DOMINATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE BELOW NORMAL TEMP TREND TO CONTINUE.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU WED PM INTO EARLY THURS WITH A CHC FOR
SOME RAIN OR SNOW. IN ITS WAKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US
ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

ISSUE IN AVIATION WILL BE GENERAL SATURATION OF THE SUB 10K FT
LAYER TONIGHT AND WHEN WILL LIGHT RAIN REACH THE GROUND AS
MOISTURE SPREADS EAST. WOULD THINK DVL-FAR FIRST TO GET SOME
PRECIP THEN GFK-TVF AND LASTLY BJI. BASED ON SFC TEMPS AND LATEST
RUC IN KEEPING 925 MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C THRU 15Z AT LEAST IN TAF
SITES KEPT ALL SITES AS -RA AS FEEL ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO
NRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER NORTH OF HALSTAD...ALONG WITH MINNESOTA AND
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES BELOW HALSTAD...CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO THE
SPRING SNOW MELT. MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS RAPIDLY
SHRINKING BUT SNOW CLOGGED DITCHES STILL NEED TO BE FLUSHED IN NW
MINNESOTA TODAY`S CONTINUED WARM WEATHER IS HELPING ERODE IT BUT A
WEEKEND COOL DOWN WILL SLOW THAT A BIT.

MINTO HAS CRESTED AND GRAFTON IS STILL RISING AND WILL FLUCTUATE
SLIGHTLY FROM ICE IN CHANNEL AND CREST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND FOR WALSH
COUNTY. COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT MANY COUNTY AND
TOWNSHIP ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. SOME TOWNS INCLUDED IN THE WARNING ARE GRAFTON... MINTO...PARK
RIVER... ARDOCH...CONWAY...EDINBURG AND FORDVILLE.

A SNOW DRIFT IS DAMMING THE SNAKE RIVER UPSTREAM OF ALVARADO MN ON
COUNTY ROAD 66 AND HOLDING BACK WATER DESTINED FOR ALVARADO AND THUS
A WARNING FOR MODERATE FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR WHEN THE DAM BREAKS.

OTHERWISE...NEW FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR DRAYTON AND PEMBINA
ON THE MAINSTEM RED FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...LUKES