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000
FXUS63 KFGF 300359
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SLOT WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN SASK AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES
BY MORNING. SO LOW TEMP TWEAKED...RAISED LOW IN THE SOUTH A COUPLE
DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MAN/SASK
BORDER AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT
SNOW MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING. CANADIAN RADAR
INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. WILL
KEEP LOW POPS NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH MANITOBA...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE TRUE COLD AIR FROM CANADA DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. THINK THAT WE WILL SEE LOWS
TONIGHT DROP TO AROUND 10 IN THE NORTH BUT THE SOUTH WILL STAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS WITH A FAIRLY WARM START THIS EVENING AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
SATURDAY...BUT THINK WITH SOME SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE TEMPS PRETTY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD TODAY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL HELP REINFORCE COLD AIR
AND TEMPS SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM NORTHERN MT INTO THE
DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC TROUGH AXIS AND BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. BUMPED UP POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THE
WEST...WITH HIGH CHANCE CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. MONDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP PRECIP OF SOME SORT
OVER OUR CWA. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS DRY OUT THE MID
LAYERS...MAKING FREEZING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN SNOW IF THAT
VERIFIES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF TEMP PROFILES THAT FAR
OUT...WILL LEAVE OUT FZDZ MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST KEEP 30-40 POPS
FOR LIGHT SNOW GOING. THE GEM TRIES TO BRING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
MONDAY BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. WILL KEEP SNOW AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH THE BETTER SYSTEM COMING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT A MID WEEK SNOW EVENT NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND BETWEEN THE SAME MODEL...DIFFERENT
RUNS...EXIST. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A PLETHORA OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE THEN CROSSES NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A SFC FLOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MODEL
RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE TRYING TO NARROW DOWN BEST
CHANCES/LOCATIONS FOR SNOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE.
FURTHER TROUBLING IS THE FACT THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN
TEMPS OF 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEWEST 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...STRAYING AWAY FROM ITS 35
BELOW TO 45 BELOW TEMPS GENERATED ON THE 00Z RUN. SFC HIGH
CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WRN ND INTO CENTRAL SD...WHICH WOULD MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S BELOW. ALSO WILL NEED TO
FACTOR IN CLOUD POTENTIAL AND HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WE MAY REALIZE
WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BEFORE GOING AS COLD AS MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

SURFACE OBS INDICATED WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR LANGDON TO
NEAR BISMARCK ND. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE WITH WIND SHIFT. WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCH OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AROUND 12 THOUSAND FT...OVER NORTHWEST ND/SOUTHERN SASK
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. PATCH OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WERE
LOCATED OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST ZONES AND APPEARED TO BE SHRINKING
IS SIZE EARLIER IN THE SATELLITE LOOP. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
SHRINKING OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. ANOTHER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 35
HUNDRED FT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. APPEARS TRAILING EDGE
OF CLOUDS WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. HIGHER CLOUDS WERE
MASKING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY CLEAR BJI
EARLIER THAN CURRENT THINKING. WILL KEEP BJI AS IS FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES