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000
FXUS63 KFGF 070409
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1009 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

PLAYED WITH PTYPE A BIT BUT OTHERWISE IDEA OF MOST PRECIP EXITING
AREA BY MIDNIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE SOME LIGHT PCPN S OF
BISMARCK TO TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A MIX. SFC LOW NEAR
CROOKSTON MOVING EAST WITH COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH FARGO
AND SE ND NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXITING FCST AREA BY MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE NEXT LIGHT PRECIP BAND THAT WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE DRIER NAM THAT HAS VERIFIED WELL WITH
THESE PAST FEW EVENTS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF MIXED
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ND THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN.
THERE COULD BE A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL INTO
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH TEMPS
RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WON/T ISSUE ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN WILL COOL OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER 06Z IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND MOVE SOUTH BY 12Z FRI. EXPECT SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
IN AREAS THAT GET SOME FRESH SNOW...OTHERWISE GIVEN THAT THE SNOW
HAS BEEN BLOWN OUT...AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP AND TEMPS
SHOULD CRUST ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND...NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
ISSUES FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE MAIN TRAVEL ISSUES
WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE THEY COULD GET AN
INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT...AND WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH OR
PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.

FOR FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION AND SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW SHOULD
PERSIST IN THE VALLEY WITH A WINDY DAY EXPECTED. TEMPS WON/T RISE
TOO MUCH AND GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS.

FOR FRI NIGHT...EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING FROM COOLER
TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH 40 POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSOLATION.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT MORE CLOUDS NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THAT
WOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. THE ECMWF MOS IS ADVERTISING HIGHS
NEAR 41 AT GFK...AND 48 AT FARGO...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE ARE AREAS IN RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES THOUGH WITH LITTLE SNOW SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME AREAS INTO
THE 40S WHERE THERE ISN/T TOO MUCH SNOW LEFT.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS TO THE WEST
NEXT WEEK. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OUT WITH RATHER MILD
TEMPS...WITH A COOL DOWN FOR MID-WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
BRINGING COLDER 850 MB TEMPS BACK FOR MONDAY RELATIVE TO THE
ECMWF...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS ON MONDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES. RIGHT NOW NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON. GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MESSY FCST THRU 12Z FRI AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREAST
TO 15 TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT ESP IN THE RRV AND ERN ND BEHIND THE
LOW. CLEARING WILL WORK IN WITH COLDER AIR FRI AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE