Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A
FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A BAND OF CLOUDS AT LEAST THIS MORNING
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO SOME
PATCHY FOG WITH THIS STRATUS...AND WILL ADD SOME FOR EARLY
MORNING. THIS STRATUS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ONCE AGAIN IF THEY DO NOT
ERODE UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...SO TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY
FOR SOME AREAS WHERE CLOUDS HOLD. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z
FRI...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BE WINDY FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH GOOD MIXING AT LEAST THIS EVENING...AND 30-40KT TO
MIX. A DEVELOPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN THOUGH. A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT
THE CAP NEAR 850MB SHOULD ERODE LATE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE NORTH.

ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ONE
IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE WEST. GIVEN THESE TOUGH TO TIME WAVES...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAINLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT SHOULD BE
WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...WITH
AROUND 80 IN THE WEST AND LOW 70S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION...AS
AS A SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO SFC LOW TRACK.

ON SATURDAY...A STRONG SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS COUPLED WITH PWATS STILL NEAR 1 INCH IN THE
NORTH...AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOULD MEAN MAINLY SHOWER
CHANCES AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. COOL ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN SAT AFTERNOON
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 20KT IN THE NW...ALONG WITH
ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS UP TO AROUND 700MB WITH 35KT TO MIX. TEMPS
WILL BE COOL TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CAA BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SAT NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS A LINGERING
SHOWER MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BY DAY 7 ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS CANADA. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY
WED. WILL ADD POPS FOR WED.

TEMPS WERE DECREASED BY A DEGREE FOR SUN AND INCREASED A DEGREE FOR
MON...TUE AND WED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER FAR EASTERN MN SPREADING
STRATUS WESTWARD. STRATUS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL BUT THE KDVL
SITE...AND WILL BE UPDATING TAFS SHORTLY TO ADDRESS STRATUS AND
EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG WITHIN IFR STRATUS DECK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






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