Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE RISE REALLY SLOWED DOWN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS YESTERDAY. SO AT THIS POINT DO NOT PLAN ON
DOING ANY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. ONLY SEEING SOME THIN CIRRUS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...SO LOTS OF SUN
EXPECTED AGAIN. WINDS ARE COMING UP AS EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS
DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND HIGH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE OUR EAST TO NORTHEAST
SFC GRADIENT. AS LOW IN NEBRASKA IS CLOSER TODAY SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A BIT TIGHTER AND THUS SFC WINDS TODAY A BIG HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THINNING OUT AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SRN ND. OUTSIDE OF
SOME CIRRUS...MAINLY IN THE SRN FCST AREA...LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
TEMP PROFILES SHOW PERHAPS A TAD COOLER 925-850 MB LAYER SO HIGH
TEMPS TODAY MAY COME SHY OF WHAT THEY WERE ON FRIDAY.

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST SUNDAY LOOK FOR BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LESS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS LIGHTER
WINDS SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

500 MB RIDGE STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
MONDAY AND MILDER SFC-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH WEST WINDS.
QUITE MILD WITH AFTN HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 70S OVER NRN ND AND
INTO A LARGE PART OF WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF
DO PAINT A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN OUR WARM ADVECTION REGIME VS THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
TO 500 MB OR HIGHER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE-AMPLIFIES
THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES
INTO CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.
WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE, THU AND FRI. A DEGREE OR
SO HIGHER FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR THRU THE FCST PD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY INCREASE TO THE 15-25 KT
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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