Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 121601
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Wind Chills of -25F to -40F are likely to persist well into the
afternoon for a large part of eastern ND and northwest MN.
Temperature recovery has been quite slow and winds are starting to
increase just a bit.

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Temperatures bottoming out this morning in the teens and 20s
below with calm to light winds causing wind chills to be in the 25
to 45 below range. Question will be how much recovery occurs
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Center of the dry arctic airmass nosing into the area from the
west with temperatures this morning in the teens and 20s below
with wind chills generally in the negative 25 to 40F range. Will
see some recovery although how much is the main question mark in
the forecast today. Westerly wind in the 5 to 10 kt range as the
center of the SFC high remains to the west northwest today should
be enough mixing to help temps rise to around minus 10 for areas
with deeper newer snow and some negative single digits in the
south where less new snow exists. SFC high drifts into south
central ND by Saturday morning. So another night of 20s and maybe
even 30s below with light winds. Wind chills ranging from 25
(actual temperatures) to 45 below, whenever there is a puff of
wind tonight into saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Upper air pattern amplifies through this period. Upper level ridge
over western North America builds and shifts a little east through
12Z Mon. Upper level trough over the Canadian Archipelago will move
south into the Northern Plains by 00Z Mon. Light snow with
approaching upper trough is forecast for Sun. Also another shot of
arctic air will move into the area for Sun.

Mon thru Thu

Split flow develops by 12Z Thu over North America. Southern stream
will undercut upper ridge in the west late in the period.  Long wave
pattern de-amplifies this period. Long wave trough over eastern
North America will shift into eastern Canada/New England by Thu.
Long wave ridge over western North America flattens by Thu. Upper
ridge western North America will move over the area by wed and will
moderate temps.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon. High temps were
decreased a degree or so for Tue and increased a degree or so for
Wed and Thu from yesterdays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

SKC with light winds expected for the period as dry, cold airmass
settles in over the region.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ052-053.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ006-009-016-017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JK



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