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000
FXUS63 KFGF 282110
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. MODELS
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE GFS HAS DONE WELL LATELY.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME COOLING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W/NW...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP A BIT...SO IT WON/T GET TOO COLD. THERE WILL
BE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO NW MN
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

ON SUNDAY...A BAND OF MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR MONDAY...MOISTURE RETURN WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. IT SHOULD BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY. THERE WILL BE STRONG MID LEVEL WAA AND SOME
SATURATION...SO THERE COULD BE PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N/NW AFTER 06Z TUE.

ON TUESDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA IS EXPECTED WITH ABOUT 35KT TO
MIX FROM 925 MB. EXPECT A WINDY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. CAA BEHIND
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE COLDEST OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND THICKNESS VALUES INDICATING
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK. LITTLE PCPN IS FORECAST
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
PERIOD CAUSING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. SOME MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MIXED IN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK