Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271837
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE VALLEY...AND
TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOVING IT OUT OF THE AREA BY 21Z.
THUS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR POPS/PCPN ATTM. REST OF
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE NRN VALLEY SO WILL
KEEP POPS/PCPN AS IS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST ON
TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS THE
HWY 2 CORRIDOR THE LAST 4 HOURS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CWA...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW (LIKELY
FLURRIES) FROM THE I 94 CORRIDOR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE FLURRIES FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE AREAS DEPICTED ON RADAR AND CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH UNTIL MORNING SNOW REPORTS
COME IN...AS A TENTH OF AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SKY COVER AND RELATED TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS CURRENTLY SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND FILLING IN A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES FROM
ABOUT THE RRV TO DEVILS LAKE. THAN NAM12 AND RUC13 MODELS ARE
DOING A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE CLEAR BAND AND USED THOSE MODELS
FOR GUIDANCE. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AS SOME WEAK VORTICES MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA.

TODAY...LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST WILL PROGRESS SLOWER THAN THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND FILL IN THE CLEAR GAP OVER
NORTHEASTERN ND BY MID MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW NOW JUST EAST OF
MINOT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ND AND INTO N CNTRL MN...AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOVING EAST OF CWA BY 21Z. HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS AND ISOLATED SHSN FOR THIS AS WV IS SHOWING A COUPLE
OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT ARE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FLUFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND RATHER
SPOTTY IN NATURE. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING AS SAT
TRENDS DO NOT GIVE ME A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE SRN VALLEY WILL
SEE CLOUDS MOVE IN...AND IF IT REMAINS CLEAR COULD BE WARMER THAN
FCST HIGHS.

TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTH AND THE DRIER
AIR SHOULD HELP CLEAR THINGS OUT AT LEAST IN THE NORTH. WILL SEE A
LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS CWA FROM NW TO SE AS LINGERING CLOUDS
IN THE FAR SE COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS WHEREAS
THE NW SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AS THE
COLD AIRMASS DROPS INTO THE REGION.

SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS SINKING SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SOLAR BUT MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE ZERO TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE EARLY HIGHS AS EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
KEEP SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS PRIOR TO COLDER AIR MAKING IT
TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER MT AND
DAKOTAS AND MN SHOULD SEE LIGHT NW FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP MON
NIGHT LOWS FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR BUT DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY THE LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS TO ADVISORY LEVELS BOTH MON AND
TUE MORNING. THE COLD APPARENT TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WX HAZARD WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROF OVER CENTRAL NOAM
EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOWS A DISTINCT SHIFT INTO THE EAST AT MIDWEEK
AND A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. EXPECT ARCTIC AIRMASS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WED INTO FRI...WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVING IN BY THE WEEK END. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

BRIEF BAND OF -SN JUST ABOUT THROUGH KGFK...VFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ON A MAINLY
NORTH TO SOUTH TRACK THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY THIS AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR...INCLUDED -SHSN
ALL EXCEPT KFAR AT AND BEYOND FROPA. WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NW BEHIND
FRONT REMAINING ARD 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...GUST/SPEICHER
AVIATION...WJB





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