Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 281732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SEEING MORE OF A MIX OR -SN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SO ADDED -SN OR
MIX ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A TENTH OR
TWO OVER THE FAR NE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY. WITH MOIST LAYER AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 40
WILL LET CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS BECOME VERY
LIGHT SO THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING MOST OF IT. COULD REALLY GO
WITH DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
WORDING FOR NOW. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE REGION WHERE SOME FLURRIES COULD EVEN
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP AND IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WINDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE AND TEMPS. AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS QUITE THICK ACROSS THE FA.
THIS WAS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP AND THUS RESULTING IN RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE PCPN TYPE. TEMPS WERE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE
WEST BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND DEW POINTS JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER. WINDS WERE ALREADY PICKING UP ACROSS THE WEST
TOO WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. BASICALLY EXPECT THE SFC
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE UP TOWARD JAMES BAY
TODAY. HOWEVER A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO HANG BACK INTO OUR
NORTHEAST FA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TODAY.
THE LIGHT PCPN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS. WILL HAVE A DECENT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN WINDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERED SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING. THINK THIS
WILL ALSO STAY MAINLY IN LIQUID FORM BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLAKES AROUND AGAIN. MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING TRYING TO WORK ITS
WAY IN ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO WILL KEEP COOLER MIN TEMPS ACROSS
THE WEST. NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLEARING
OCCURS OR NOT. MODELS ARE STICKING WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU ON WED/WED NIGHT SO LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT WED NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN ON THU WITH SOME LATE DAY
SUN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THU NIGHT BRINGING QUITE
CHILLY MIN TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKY AND THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON.  HIGHS MOST AREAS EVEN WITH SUN
WILL BE 35-40.  SOUTHEAST WIND TO PICK UP FRI NIGHT AS HIGH DEPARTS
LEADING TO A BIT MILDER WEEKEND AS TEMPS RECOVER TO AROUND NORMAL.
NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA MONDAY.  TIMING
IS DIFFERENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS.  BUT BOTH
WOULD HAVE SOME CHC OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE
QUICKLY BRINGS A LOW STRATUS DECK BACK IN TOWARD MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING MVFR OR IFR CIGS BACK IN DURING THE 09Z TO
15Z TIMEFRAME...AS RH LAYER APPEARS TO DRY OUT BEFORE MORE LOW
CLOUDS COME IN AROUND NOON TOMORROW. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
AREA IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIMEFRAME. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN
THE EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE NW TO W THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.