Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221934
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
DIMINISHING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL USE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPS AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH SKY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 12Z TOMORROW. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...IF ANY.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA.

TOMORROW...12Z NAM BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...SPREADING NORTH TO ABOUT THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
AND THEN STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA CLEAR
AND A RETURN OF MID 70S TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 200. UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT....MODELS TO FLIRT WITH SOME PRECIP SOUTH OF I 94
CORRIDOR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. HAVE PULLED POPS UNTIL 09Z SUN MORNING OTHER THAN
THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE CWA HOWEVER ATMS REMAINS STABLE WITH VERY LOW MUCAPES
THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MUCAPES FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE H500 LOW TRACKS...COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
AIR FUNNEL SCENARIO SET UP MON AFTN. HOWEVER MANY VARIABLES TO
CONSIDER THIS FAR OUT. WITH MODELS VARYING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WILL USE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND KEEP
LIKELIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL GO WITH
STRAIGHT CONVECTION AS MUCAPES ARE ON THE RISE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN (ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY). THE SUPERBLEND EXTENDED
SOLUTION HAS POPS/WX MOST PERIODS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT
SAID...MAINLY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG


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