788
FXUS63 KFGF 121958
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will degrade air quality today, with an
  additional round Sunday.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Monday. The main hazards are hail, gusty winds, and flash
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper trough on water vapor is pulling eastward into the Great
Lakes, with northwesterly flow aloft setting up for tonight and
into tomorrow. This will bring not much for precipitation
chances but will help shift wildfire smoke from Canada down into
our area. Flow becomes more zonal for Monday, which will help
decrease smoke impacts but increase thunderstorm chances.
Precipitation chances will continue into Tuesday as a cold front
pushes down into the Northern Plains. Falling heights with a
broader trough digging down into the region will bring some
cooler than average temps for the end of the week. Low
predictability for precipitation chances as various weak
shortwaves move through.

...Smoke tonight and tomorrow...

Sat loop shows some thinning of the smoke layer over western
portion of ND, and there has been some locations west of the
Missouri River seeing visibility improvement. Both the HRRR and
Canadian models show some improvements to surface smoke
concentration for later tonight into Sunday morning. However,
there will be another weak cold front coming down tomorrow and
there could be some more smoke coming down to the surface with
subsidence. Exact timing of the break in the smoke and then the
return is uncertain, but should continue to see unhealthy to
very unhealthy air quality through the rest of the weekend.

...Marginal severe chances Monday...

Some moisture return for the beginning of the work week will
help probabilities for CAPE values over 2000 J/kg increase to
over 50 percent Monday afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear is
fairly robust as flow becomes more zonal, up to 40 kts. However,
much will depend on where exactly the surface boundary ends up,
which models have all over the place. At this point think the
severe impacts look pretty isolated, but will continue to
monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Most ceilings are VFR, but smoke from Canadian wildfires
continues to keep many visibilities in the 3-6SM range, with
some locations even down to 2SM at times. There should be a bit
of a break in the surface smoke sometime tonight or tomorrow
morning, but a lot of uncertainty as to exactly when. For now
have a break late tonight into tomorrow morning from west to
east, then another round of smoke towards the end of the period.
Winds gusting from the northwest around 20 kts this afternoon
will decrease and become more southwesterly around 10 kts by
morning, then back to the northwest for the more western
airports by 18Z Sunday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR