National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KFGF 051832
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THE BLUE SKY AT OUR OFFICE IS GONE AND WE NOW HAVE A THIN CLOUD
LAYER (BUT STILL SHADOWS ON THE GROUND). NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

WE HAVE NOTHING BUT BLUE SKY HERE AT THE OFFICE IN GRAND
FORKS...AND JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOST OF THE
OBSERVATIONS OUR FORECAST IS OVERDONE WITH SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW CONCERNING CLOUDS TODAY...BUT WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD MOST
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT (AND UPDATE AS NEEDED). THIS SHOULD NOT
AFFECT TEMPS MUCH TODAY...BUT IT COULD TONIGHT (WILL LOOK INTO
DETAILS FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE). THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS LIKELY THE WIND...WIND CHILLS...AND BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW. THIS ALL APPEARS HANDLED WELL AND NO CHANGED NEEDED FOR
THESE VARIABLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THE WINTER STORM THAT VERIFIED VERY WELL IS SLOWLY WINDING
DOWN...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LIGHT
SNOW. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING
UNTIL 12Z THU FOR ALL AREAS...THEN TRANSITION AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH SAT MORNING. WE
WILL ADD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
TONIGHT-18Z SAT FOR 25 TO 40 BELOW WIND CHILLS AND BITTERLY COLD
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

FOR TODAY...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 20KT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND EXPECT BLOWING SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SINCE FALLING
SNOW WILL OR HAS ENDED...BUT OPEN COUNTRY COULD STILL SEE VSBYS
AROUND 1 MILE OR SO THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL TODAY IN
ALL AREAS WITH WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH 25 TO 40 BELOW BY MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN
FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW
ZERO IN ALL AREAS. IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS TEMPS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED.

FOR FRIDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FALLING BELOW 500 DECAMETERS FOR
ALL AREAS. THESE TYPE OF THICKNESS VALUES ARE VERY LOW...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED AND GIVEN THE FRESH/DEEP SNOW PACK...TEMPS WILL HAVE
A TOUGH TIME WARMING MUCH AT ALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONTINUED BITTER COLD WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER THREATS WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUING. ANY
AREA THAT CLEARS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND DECOUPLES...LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO FAIRLY EASILY. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTH
COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY FOR ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO WITH
ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE UPPER LOW TO EXTEND
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON DAY 3. LONG WAVE UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOME THE FASTER
SOLUTION THEREAFTER. WILL PREFER THE FASTER ECMWF.

WILL TAKE OUT POPS ON MON IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN
THE EAST ON SUN NIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER FOR MON AND WED AND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE MVFR CIGS COMING DOWN OUT OF MANITOBA
AND ANY REMAINING AREAS OF BLSN. FOR MOST PART...HAVE NOT SEEN
ENOUGH REPORTS OF BLSN AT TAF SITES AND WILL REMOVE MENTION EXCEPT
AT BJI. MVFR CIG DECK WILL LIKELY IMPACT TVF/GFK/BJI AREA BUT FAR
WILL STAY CLEAR. A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN WITH DVL AS THERE ARE SOME
LOWER CIGS AT MOT. WILL INCLUDE LATER IN THE AFTN. ONCE THEY ARE
HERE I DO NOT SEE SKIES CLEARING OUT EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL BE ON
WRN EDGE. NOTE TVF CEILOMETER IS OUT OF SVC AND AMDS WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO WINDS AND VIS ONLY ONCE THE CLOUDS ARE OVERHEAD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
     027-029-030-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER