Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A low pressure system centered in southwest MB will steadily shift
eastward through the day with surface trof and closely following
surface cold front dragging across eastern North Dakota this
forenoon and northwest MN through the afternoon. Gusty south winds
will slow just a bit as the trof axis passes any area but then
sharply turn and increase from the west... gusting from 20 to 30
mph. Widely scattered showers are possible across portions of
central ND to include the Devils Lake Basin and mid to upper
Sheyenne Valley areas... though scant amounts of rain are expected.
Showers are more likely across the MN Lakes country from west
central into northcentral MN... where accumulations of a tenth of
an inch to a quarter of an inch are possible... mainly in the mid
to late afternoon. Winds should taper of a bit with sunset though
a light westerly wind will persist into the overnight periods.
Temperatures today and tonight will drop a good 10 to 15 degrees
from Friday... but remain nearly 10 degrees above long term

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A progressive and active pattern is expected for the coming week
with closer to seasonal temperatures and periods of precipitation,
some of which could be the season`s first flakes of snow. Overall
confidence deteriorates notably in the latter half of the forecast

Another short wave trough moves in Sunday from the west on the nose
of an upper jet that begins to amplify into a deep trough over the
Midwest Monday into Tuesday. Scattered showers will be possible
across the region Sunday afternoon through Monday with a surface low
moving across southern Canada with a couple of passing cold fronts
sweeping to its south. The amplifying upper trough Monday into
Tuesday will act as a conduit for colder temperatures to move
southward, although it seems the core of this migrating colder air
will stay within Minnesota/Wisconsin. With light forecast
precipitation amounts and lower level temperatures just warm enough,
rain appears to be the dominate type Monday.

A surface ridge is expected to keep Tuesday dry. The upper trough
axis moves east bringing relatively warmer temperatures back into
the region, but only briefly as an embedded short wave moves out
of eastern Manitoba/western Ontario into the upper Mississippi
Valley. This short wave pushes a surface low through Minnesota
from north to south. The 21/00Z GFS, Euro solutions vary on how
developed and deep this low is by Wednesday morning. Both
solutions agree on keeping the bulk of precipitation to its
eastern quadrants, some of which could be snow mainly in eastern
Minnesota, although Wednesday is expected to be mostly dry with
perhaps a few passing rain showers in northwestern/west-central
Minnesota. An associated cold front will bring cooler temperatures
across the area as well as gusty northwesterly winds Wednesday.
This sets up the scene for Thursday`s storm.

Better precipitation chances accompany a developing low dropping
in from Canada Thursday. Cooler morning temperatures could mean
some flakes of snow mixing in, although confidence is low for this
due to model run to run discrepancy. After Thursday, guidance
varies significantly on pattern development. There is the
potential for yet another low moving into the region already
entrenched in cooler temperatures from the northwest Saturday, but
will hold off on specifics due to large model differences.

Temperatures through the period will be closer to seasonal normals,
i.e. highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, possibly becoming
slightly cooler than normal later in the forecast period. As of now,
it looks like Thursday through Saturday look to be coldest days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Updated at 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Expect generally VFR conditions across the FA with areas of MVFR
CIGS developing in rain showers from west central into northwest
MN through the late forenoon and afternoon... generally along and
west of a KETH-KFSE-KRRT line. Gusty south winds will shift
sharply from the west through the late forenoon in eastern ND,
from 17-19z along the Red River corridor, and though the afternoon
in northwest MN. Expect south winds turning west and gusting from
20 to 30 mph across eastern ND and the Red River Valley until




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