Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 051149
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO EXIT HUBBARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OF CAPE) HAS LED TO
SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IS LOCATED
IN CLEARWATER COUNTY AND MOVING SSE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT 20C AT 850 MB IN THE FAR NORTH SUPPORTING
NEARLY 90F AT THE SURFACE TODAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM TONIGHT
UNDER THE PLUME OF WARM AIR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH LOW PROBABILITY...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT IT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER BLOCKING
PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS
UNDERCUT A BIT BY THE SRN JET STREAM. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AND EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPPER RIDGE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KDVL AND KGFK THIS
MORNING...WITH 40KTS SHOWING UP IN THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
ABOUT 1000 FT. SHEAR DECREASES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. IT IS
POSSIBLE RH VALUES IN SOME AREAS COULD DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WIND
SPEEDS END UP TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS


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