Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD ATTM SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS FOR TVF AND BJI TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT
TO GO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AFT 12-16Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS






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