Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281748
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Made some tweaks to clouds to fit current satellite, but will
continue to keep POPs mostly after 21Z. Short range models are
breaking out storms as far west as the Red River Valley, with much
of the activity over our MN counties this evening. Given we are
currently capped but CAPE values are climbing into the 2000 J/kg
range according to SPC`s meso page, this seems reasonable. Raised
temps a bit in the southwestern counties as Gwinner is already 82
degrees.

UPDATE Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Ongoing convection has moved off into central Minnesota, but a few
lingering sprinkles remain over the Valley City area. Will keep a
mention going for a bit longer but the activity is on a downward
trend. Similarly, fog continues over the eastern tier of counties
and portions of the northern Red River Valley. Extended the
mention a bit longer but think that the fog should dissipate in
the next few hours. Think at this point that storms will start
developing in the northern counties late this afternoon and into
the evening. Short range models are coming into better agreement
on storms over northwestern MN this evening, so tweaked POPs up a
bit during the 00-06Z time frame.

UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A storm or two may clip Grant county this morning...based on
latest trends. Otherwise...fog has developed across parts of the
area and appears to be the most persistent in the Baudette to
Bemidji to Park Rapids area. Updated Wx to expand fog across more
of eastern ND as indicated by satellite.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The forecast for this period focuses on this morning`s
thunderstorm activity and thunderstorm chances this afternoon.
Currently...a line of thunderstorms is drifting NE across NE SD on
nose of 25kt low level jet. MUCAPEs in this area are 1000-2000
J/kg and effective shear of 45kts. Looking primarily at a hail
threat through the early morning hours across perhaps extreme
southern Richland County and into west-central MN. The HRRR has
isolated activity persisting through the morning hours south of
Bemidji. Also...fog has developed in the far east including the
Bemidji area. Will monitor for possible expansion of fog area if
needed.

Later today...a warm front is expected to lift northward into the
area...although models differ on exactly where this front will
reside come the time for surface-based convection late this
afternoon. Although thunderstorms will be possible across much of
the area this afternoon looking at the marginal CIN by
21-00Z...models favor NW MN after 7 PM due to influence from the
upper wave passing through southern MB. Still...some models
indicate a few cells in the Red River Valley by 6 PM as well.
Generally went with isolated/slight chance southwest areas to
chance/scattered in the northeast. With the CAPEs running around
3000 J/kg and deep shear of 25-35 kts...severe storms will be a
possibility. A tornadic potential will exist...as STPs will be
about 1-2 along the RRV and further east into MN. Any thunderstorm
activity is expected to move east as the cold front moves into the
area tonight. However..some activity may still be underway across
parts of NW MN late in the night as the front will be slow to
progress deep into MN.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Mon-Tue...After a warm Sunday with highs in the 80s...temps will
cool a bit behind the cold front for Monday...but only a bit with
highs in the mid 70s north to mid 80s south. The front will linger
in the southeast near Fergus Falls...where thunderstorms will be
possible into the afternoon hours. High pressure then will
dominate the area by Tuesday...with highs in the 70s to near 80.

Wed-Sat...Upper ridge will be building in during the middle of
the week, although a low chance for precip remains with weak
embedded shortwaves and some warm air advection. However, the more
significant chances for precip will hold off until Friday and
Saturday as the upper ridge moves off to the east and flow becomes
more southwesterly. Surface low pressure over northern high plains
should begin moving to the east during Friday. Temperatures
throughout the period will be above seasonal averages, reaching at
least 80 degrees over most places.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Stratus has finally cleared out of KBJI so all TAF sites are VFR.
This will continue for the afternoon and evening, although there
is always the possibility of lower ceilings and brief reductions
of visibility with thunderstorms. Think that convection will be
possible from the Red River eastward, so have VCTS mention at all
but KDVL. Storms will be most likely between about 22 to 04Z. Some
fog formation is not out of the question towards early morning as
storms move eastward, but so far just have some 3-5SM at some but
not all TAF sites. Winds will shift to the northwest late tonight
into tomorrow morning as a cold front comes through, but speeds
should be mostly below 15kts.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/WJB
AVIATION...JR


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