Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 110545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Issued at 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

-sn will initially have a tough time working into NE half of the
fa having to overcome drier air. As a result have backed off on
pops until later tonight. Temperatures have leveled off in areas
with thinner cloud cover so we may be at our minimums. Elsewhere
temperatures slowly rising.

UPDATE Issued at 947 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

NW-SE oriented band of -sn from roughly ISN-MOT-FAR propagating
eastward about as expected. Made some minor pop adjustments based
on current radar trends. Also lowered minimum temperatures over
the far north where thicker clouds have yet to move in.

UPDATE Issued at 706 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

No changes needed at this point. Second band of snow just entering
western ND so will take some time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Snow moving north into the area and amounts will be the main
forecast challenge for the period.

Radar returns have started to move into the far southwestern CWA,
and the web cam at Oakes shows a fair amount of snow reaching the
ground. The northeastern CWA remains firmly under the surface
highs with just some cumulus forming near the big lakes and dry
air over the area. There will be a battle between the incoming
snow and the dry air to the northeast, but think the snow will
eventually win out, especially tonight as a fast moving shortwave
currently over western MT moves out into the Northern Plains.
Think that there will be mostly light snow over the far south with
fairly light QPF until the northern shortwave comes out after
midnight. Not seeing much banding potential and with the quick
moving system think that 2-4 inches (less than 1 in the far north)
of widespread light snow through tonight and tomorrow continues
to seem reasonable.

As for temperatures, the northern counties could see some quickly
plunging temps early this evening before clouds and snow move in
later tonight. Have readings in the northern tier dropping off
into the -5 to -10 range this evening before slowly rising after
midnight. Further south, temps should rise from the single digits
up into the low teens. Some weak cold air advection on the
backside of the trough Sunday afternoon, but think there should be
enough warming early on to keep highs ranging from single digits
west to teens east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Monday through Tuesday...On track for wave to pivot through swift NW
flow on Monday offering modest snow totals. Increased wind speeds
up to 5 kts Mon and Mon night along with neighbors to better
reflect next Arctic intrusion. This could drift some of the
antecedent snow a bit but empirical data along with blowing snow
model output obviates the need to include any blowing snow at this
time. Upper low moving from Churchill MB into Ontario will serve
to reinforce our northern plains chill on Tue. Expecting highs
generally of zero to five above coupled with a west wind near 15
kt. The overnight will feature the likelihood of wind chill

Wednesday through Saturday...Cold dry start to the extended forecast
period with temperatures staying around 15 to 20 degrees below
seasonal norms. Guidance agrees on the next wave ejecting out of
northern high plains toward the forecast area on Friday. ECMWF
somewhat stronger than GFS with this feature as it takes a more
southern track favored to brush the southern part of the area. A
heads up for the very end of the period : another reinforcement
every bit as cold as its predecessors is likely.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

CIGS/VSBY to slowly lower into mvfr range from SW-NE overnight as
snow band gradually moves in. Have delayed lower cigs over the ne
until morning as will take time to overcome dry air.




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