Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201001
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over eastern SD. Upper low
will move north then northwest today and tonight. Radar indicated a
band of rain over central MN moving northwest. rain is expected
mainly over northwest MN for today then lift north tonight.
Elsewhere very light rain or drizzle can be expected.

Another upper level trough on the water vapor loop was indicated
over the TX panhandle. Upper trough will move into the Northern
Plains Sat and more or less park over area. Upper low will produce
light precipitation over the forecast area Sat through late Sun
night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Monday through Thursday...The upper trough will lift off into
western Ontario, although models are all in fairly good agreement on
some light precipitation lingering over northwestern MN. Temps will
range from the 20s to mid 30s, so kept it a snow/freezing
drizzle/drizzle mix. Another upper low will move across the Central
Plains into into IA and southern MN on Tuesday. The GFS continues to
clip the southern counties although the ECMWF has decent QPF further
south, so will keep 20-30 POPs going for near the SD border. After
the southern system moves by a shortwave trough digs down out of
Canada, bringing a slight chance for some light snow and a bit of
colder air down into the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Even with
the cold air advection the arriving air mass is not frigid, so
continue to think that temperatures will remain above seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Issued at 1144 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Low clouds/fog has finally spread to all TAF sites across the area
with LIFR ceilings and generally IFR visibilities. Expect
these conditions to continue through at least Friday morning along
with southerly flow of 10 kts or so. Small chance for some
improvement by Friday afternoon before mixed precipitation chances
begin to move into the area.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Lee



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