Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS DLH AND MPX...DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY
ROADS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT
ROSEAU...MICHIGAN...CAVALIER...AND MINTO. THERE ARE USUALLY OTHER
AREAS RECEIVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE NEVER HEAR ABOUT. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT. IN FACT...BRANDON MANITOBA HAS
REPORTED FZDZ THE PAST HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE NUCLEI IS VERY
LOW...SO THIS LIFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL (AND POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD) FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS UNDER RADAR RETURNS NOW (WC MN) ARE RECEIVING
A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT DO DRY ALOFT AND WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE
FZDZ LATER. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS SINCE THEY ARE FURTHER FROM
THE UPPER WAVES INFLUENCE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG...SO A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE (AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS WC MN).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABILITIES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG






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