Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
704 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Main cluster of rain showers this afternoon will move out of
southeast zones in the next two hours with some light returns
behind them...extending into SW Manitoba. For this reason will
extend westward isolated POPs for remainder of evening. Only very
light rain or even sprinkles is the most likely scenario, so will
consider reducing back to sprinkles at 10 PM update after
monitoring what advects in from MB the next couple of hours.
Certainly nothing expected over a couple of hundredths of an
inch. Winds will begin to subside this evening as well and no
changes needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The stagnant weather pattern will continue tonight into Tuesday
before finally loosening its grasp on the region. Showers will
thin out a little tonight, but models show another cluster of
light showers moving into the northern Red River Valley and
northwest Minnesota by mid to late evening, expanding down into
west central Minnesota toward morning. Then most of the activity
should be east of the Red River through most of Tuesday. The gusty
winds will die down this evening then increase again on Tuesday.
Temperatures tonight will hinge on cloud trends but most of the
area will stay cloudy overnight with steady winds. However, if
some clearing can work into the western FA, temps could drop more.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

No impacts through the first half of the period as we will finally
see a break from the cloudy and rainy conditions as of late. The
main 500 mb low that brought lingering shower chances to the region
for the beginning of the week will finally push off towards the
north and east with upper ridging gradually building in. Plenty of
sunshine through the rest of the work week will allow temperatures
to reach back up into the 70s, or even lower 80s, through Friday.

A return to active weather is possible by the weekend. However,
models diverge greatly on their solutions regarding the return of
any precipitation chances. At this point, the blended solution still
appears to be the best bet with low end rain chances through the
weekend. Temperatures look to turn a bit cooler but still right
around average or just below with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s and
mild lows in the 50s or so.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

MVFR/VFR cigs fluctuating back and forth tonight with expectation
that MVFR will be most predominant CIG group by midnight and
through the remainder of the night. Low confidence we will see IFR
but some localized areas of IFR are possible around the area. No
mention of IFR at TAF sites.




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