Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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707 FXUS63 KFGF 110420 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1120 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Minnesota this afternoon. Isolated stronger cells with lightning, pea hail, and wind gusts to 55 mph. - Near critical fire weather conditions continue in portions of the Red River Valley with winds gusting to 35 mph and dry relative humidity values near 25 percent. - Very similar conditions tomorrow, with a few storms near Lake of the Woods and low relative humidity values and gusty west winds in the northern Red River Valley. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Starting to see a bit of upstream cirrus over southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba. This should move into the FA well after midnight. Otherwise winds will remain light overnight. UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 There are just a few echoes left on radar, mainly along the eastern fringe of the FA, from Baudette to Bemidji to Wadena. Cloud cover is also diminishing, which will make for a good night to view the Northern Lights. Models seem to be overdoing the sky cover amounts this evening. Other than some very thin cirrus or smoke, there isn`t too much cloud cover upstream. Therefore, once the cumulus fades away, don`t see much other than this thin cirrus or smoke through most of the night. Wind speeds will quickly drop off by dark as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Fairly strong shortwave digging through northern MN currently, with cumulus and showers across much of our eastern CWA. No reports of small hail so far, but a few are tall enough to produce lightning and a couple of cells were strong enough to mix down a few gusts above 50 mph. Will continue some messaging for stronger storms through sunset, but the 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE that we see will rapidly diminish and there is no shear to speak of. Thus. most of the cumulus should dissipate and allow mostly clear skies for aurora viewing, although some cirrus could start moving in towards morning. The breezy northwest winds will also settle down and RH values will improve, improving our near critical fire weather conditions in the Red River Valley. Similar conditions for tomorrow however, as another shortwave moves through southern Manitoba and brings more shower activity to northwestern Minnesota. This time the CWA will be in the warm sector of the surface low with southwesterly winds and highs approaching 80 degrees in the Red River Valley. RH values will again be down near the 25 percent mark although winds will be lighter everywhere except the far northern Red River Valley. May have to watch that area again for near critical fire weather concerns. As for as convection goes, the HREF has a few updraft helicity tracks that are on the high side tomorrow afternoon, but CAPE values are less than 1000 J/kg and think probabilities for anything actually severe are under 10 percent. Frontal boundary pushing in behind the shortwave and high pressure building in will bring cooler temperatures and quiet weather for Sunday and Monday. A trough of low pressure will begin to approach by late Tuesday, coming out into the Plains on Wednesday. How this system is handled mid to late week as it moves into the eastern Plains and into the Rockies is not particularly well handled by the ensembles, with about an even split in the clusters by Thursday between a trough to our west and a ridge. Blend gives us fairly active precip chances with slightly below average highs and this seems reasonable at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The 00z set of TAFs remain on target, so stuck with the main ideas from them. Light winds overnight will take on a SSW component by mid Saturday morning, then get pretty breezy again by afternoon (mainly KDVL/KGFK/KTVF). These winds will drop again by early Saturday evening. Clouds may be a little tricky. Have stuck with the idea of FEW-SCT250 for overnight into Saturday morning. By afternoon, there should be some lower or mid cloud development (SCT-BKN070-100), but still VFR. Then during the later afternoon into the evening, expect some SCT shower maybe isolated thunder development. Being this far out, it is still a low confidence forecast, so left as VCSH at some of the northern TAF sites for now. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Godon