Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 022039
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS OVER ONT/MAN. PATTERN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN US.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND WAS
PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS OVER SD. MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THU AND
PRODUCE A CAP ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI AND PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH AND IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES FOR FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT.
MUCAPES RISE TO 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH BETTER THAN
35 KNOTS SHEAR.

QUIESCENT WEATHER FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WARMER THU WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE 100-104 RANGE FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST ND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE ON BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SHIFT TO A COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND ON
SUNDAY. KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THERE ARE VARIATIONS ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING A STRONG
TROUGH THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THE ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO
KEEP POPS THERE BUT FAIRLY LOW AND TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG BURNED OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALL SITES ARE VFR
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A FEW MODELS PUT SOME PATCHY FOG COVERAGE IN FOR TOMORROW
MORNING AGAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE WIND THAN
THIS MORNING...SO THINK IF FOG DOES FORM REDUCED VIS WILL BE VERY
PATCHY AND IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT AN INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE. WILL
KEEP FOG OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR



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