Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
248 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

How to handle spotty showers tonight will be the main issue for
the period.

Upper flow is nearly zonal, with several weak shortwaves moving
through. One shortwave was seen on water vapor loop right along
the ND/SD/MN border area, while there is another one evident
further west in central ND. Light showers have continued to
develop and then fizzle out as they move east today, but there is
now an upward trend in Barnes/Cass counties. The RAP and HRRR
develop more shower activity further to the north in the next few
hours as the shortwave over central ND approaches. Will expand the
POPs mention for this evening, but most of the showers should be
done before midnight as the shortwave exits off to the east.
Tomorrow will be quiet with a weak surface high over the region.

As for temperatures, a surge of cold air will begin to move in
from the north overnight, with 925mb temps dropping back below
zero. The northwestern counties will see the brunt of the cold air
advection but also will have some clouds for much of night, so
kept lows near the 30 mark. The southern counties should be a bit
higher in the upper 30s with less clouds but with some mixing
winds and a warmer start. The cool air mass will continue through
Wednesday with highs ranging from the low 40s north to low 50s

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Thursday through Friday...This time frame should be mainly dry
with a cool Thu followed by a milder Fri as mid level ridging
builds this way. A low POP for some mixed pcpn is included
vicinity of LOW for Thu morning as trough axis swings through that
area near time of min temps. Both the GFS and ECMWF agree on
timing and placement of this feature. The next hint of any more
precip would occur by Fri afternoon owing to weak WAA over mainly
northwest CWA.

Saturday through Tuesday...Still not a whole lot of activity as we
head through the weekend and into early next week. ECMWF brings a
reasonably robust short wave over northern forecast area later
Saturday into early Sunday; GFS solution is more of a slight
flattening of the ridge with much less QPF. Above freezing min
temps and a mild Sunday would make this an all liquid affair. The
ridging still seems to want to hang around into early next week
keeping temps on the mild side of normal, with a more
southwesterly flow leading to a possible showery period at the end
of our time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

MVFR conditions continue at KDVL, KTVF, and KBJI sites, although
there should be some improvement to VFR later this afternoon. Much
of the mid cloud has been to the north, but there has been some
patchy stratus and mid cloud across the central and southern
forecast area also. Think that the stratus tonight will stay
mostly to the north of the TAF sites, but may have to re-evaluate
as the night goes on. Some scattered light rain showers are
possible but they will be isolated enough to not include in the
TAFs. Winds will remain from the northwest.




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