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000
FXUS63 KFGF 010545
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASK WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SKY WAS CLEAR OVER EASTERN ND. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS NEAR
ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY. WILL DECREASE TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

PRECIP HAS MOSTLY MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN AND WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT
20 KNOTS. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT MOVEMENT. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND
WINDS WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND WINDS SHIFT MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. MODELS
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE GFS HAS DONE WELL LATELY.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME COOLING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W/NW...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP A BIT...SO IT WON/T GET TOO COLD. THERE WILL
BE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO NW MN
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

ON SUNDAY...A BAND OF MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR MONDAY...MOISTURE RETURN WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. IT SHOULD BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY. THERE WILL BE STRONG MID LEVEL WAA AND SOME
SATURATION...SO THERE COULD BE PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N/NW AFTER 06Z TUE.

ON TUESDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA IS EXPECTED WITH ABOUT 35KT TO
MIX FROM 925 MB. EXPECT A WINDY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. CAA BEHIND
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE COLDEST OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND THICKNESS VALUES INDICATING
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK. LITTLE PCPN IS FORECAST
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND SHOULD MOVE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 35
HUNDRED FT ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. THEN CLEAR
OFF. SOME MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASK WITH NEXT SYSTEM. SASK CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES 10Z TO 12Z SUN MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES