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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191725
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

No changes planned.

UPDATE Issued at 924 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Forecast on track, no update necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Update Aviation Discussion issued below. Otherwise, generally fair
skies this morning with light southerly flow...becoming breezy by
afternoon... especially across eastern North Dakota and the Red
River Valley. No significant changes to the forecast package
are expected through this early morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Surface high pressure has settled down through central MN during
the overnight and will continue a southward drift through the
morning hours. In its wake, light and variable winds will give
way to a steadily increasing southerly flow through the
forenoon... gusting into the 20-25 mph range through the afternoon
across much of the northern FA along and north of Highway 200 and
west of the Red Lakes. Otherwise, expect fair skies and a fairly
hot late August day... with temperatures arcing up into the mid
and upper 80s across eastern ND and far northwest MN, and ranging
from the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the Minnesota lakes
country.

There should be a band of mid level clouds drifting down across
the area from the northwest... into northeast ND after mid
afternoon, and across northwest MN into early evening. A weak
cool frontal passage will follow during the overnight and result in
a steady turn to northwest winds by Sunday morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible late Saturday evening or
early Sunday morning... mainly east of the Red River.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Sunday and Monday...Expect generally fair skies and a bit cooler
conditions on Sunday, with a drier northwest flow pattern across
the area. High temperatures should remain in the mid to upper 70s
across the area. A more unsettled southwest flow develops on
Monday... with a bit more low level moisture available and a widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the day...
especially along and south of Highway 200.

Tuesday through Friday...Long wave pattern will be zonal along
the International border at the beginning of the period, then
will amplify a bit through the through the period. By the end of
the period a long wave ridge will extend from Hudson Bay to the
Dakotas. Tuesdays short wave will amplify as it moves into the
eastern US. Also a trough over the Gulf of AK will amplify along
the downstream ridge over the Rockies. Upper ridge will shift into
the Northern Plains by Fri.

The GFS hasn`t changed much over the last couple model runs while
the ECMWF was trending a little slower. However, the current ECMWF
is now a bit faster solution than the GFS. Both models remain dry
throughout this period. Little change to high temperatures on Thu
and Fri. High temps were decreased one degree for Tue and Wed
from yesterdays package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. High resolution
guidance mainly dry with the late night fropa.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Gust/JH
AVIATION...Voelker