


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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157 FXUS63 KFGF 281132 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 632 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in west-central Minnesota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 632AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The overnight showers/thunderstorms have move out of our CWA, while the LLJ has weakened and shifted south. The main frontal zone is still south of our CWA and while WAA and elevated instablity is supporting a few showers/non severe thunderstorms to the south and west they are struggling to hold together as the move east and north out of the more favorable air mass where they are forming. The main focus today will still be on the late afternoon/evening period as the frontal zone shifts northeast and briefly stalls near our west central MN counties. No changes to messaging planned at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...Synopsis... Westerly flow is still in place this morning with a mid level wave exiting to our east this morning. A more organized trough is shown to kick east across the Canadian prairies later tonight into Sunday. This deepens as it progresses east Sunday night into Monday with northwest cyclonic flow eventually developing Monday night. Severe chances remain in place mainly during the afternoon and evening period today, though a strong/marginally severe storm has a low chance of development early this morning. Monday in cyclonic flow there is a good signal for diurnal showers and embedded/scattered thunderstorms. Marginal thermodynamic profiles and weak shear lower probs for severe, though a few strong storms may develop during those periods in MN. Riding amplifies Tuesday through Thursday lowering the predictability/potential for thunderstorms. There is more spread in the evolution of the pattern between ensemble clusters next weekend as the ridge breaks down and westerly flow develops, which would allow for progressive waves. ...Strong storm potential early this morning... A LLJ and axis of WAA remains in place while the main mid level wave is progressing eastward. Low levels are decoupled, but elevated instability (1000-1500 J/KG) remains in place with strong effective shear. Instabilty has been on a decreasing trend and shower/thunderstorm clusters have been trending away from the main instability axis. However, there is still a window for a few strong cores to develop before 8AM with hail to the size of nickels the main threat. Consensus of latest CAMs favor a lull in activity after the early morning showers/storms end through 18Z. ...Severe potential this afternoon and evening... A warm frontal zone is still shown to be the main focus for organized severe development later this afternoon and evening during peak heating, with guidances showing this right along our southeast CWA (uncomfortably close). This allows for a window in the 4-8pm period for potential supercell development in our far west-central MN counties, and we`ll want to monitor the frontal position this afternoon for that narrow corridor in our southeast. While left movers may be favored based on the current simulations of CAMs in our CWA, the position of the front is too close to rule out a tornado threat and all hazards would be possible. Farther north of this front there will be enough instability and effective shear to support isolated severe convection. Coverage/location would be less certain and there is more spread in the signal for this between CAMs run-run. Hail to 1.5" would be the main threat before sunset. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN, with light southerly winds 10kt or less. The main aviation impact will once again be from thunderstorm activity, however coverage today is going to be more isolated to scattered in nature (20-30% chance) at each terminal and confidence was too low to pin down one period to highlight. Best coverage will tend to be along a front in northeast SD and west central MN (south of our TAF sites). Will need to monitor and amend as activity develops and tracks through the region later today. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...DJR