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000
FXUS63 KFGF 210441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FINE TUNED AND TRIMMED POPS AS WELL AS REMOVING SEVERE MENTION. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR UPDATE WAS TO TRIM WESTERN EDGE OF SVR MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS CONTINUED TO CLIMB WITH KFAR AT 91F WITH A
DEW POINT OF 74F. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RED RIVER WERE ALL ABOVE 70F. SFC TROUGH WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA.
LANGDON HAD A TEMP OF 90F BUT ITS DEW POINT HAD DROPPED TO 59F. SO A
LITTLE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. THERE WAS STILL
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS FROM KFAR UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS
TSTM POTENTIAL. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +12C NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND +10C IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND KDVL
REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
40 TO 45KTS OVER THE NORTH/NE. VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AS A
RESULT OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME DO NOT
PLAN ON MANY CHANGES FROM GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIME FRAME MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING THERE. WILL
KEEP THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S. THIS WILL PUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF AROUND 100 OR ABOVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. OTHER QUESTION FOR MONDAY
WILL BE TSTMS CHANCES AGAIN. SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK OUT A
TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL ND AND SLIDE IT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN LATER IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A
STRONGER WAVE TO HELP THINGS ALONG. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE TSTMS AND HPC DAY2 SHOWS A GOOD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ANY SORT OF COMPLEX THAT TRACKS
ACROSS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO NO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL THEREFORE JUST ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR MON NIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE. SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A 500MB
STACKED LOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS S CANADA WHICH WILL BRING WAA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND A CHC FOR
THUNDER THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW TURNS TO THE SE IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
WEST WINDS FRIDAY DRYING OUT THE FA AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPS TO BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW JULY NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PSBL PATCHY BR
THIS AM WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLD. MAINTAINED
DRY FORECAST AS CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TAF SITES. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNSURE OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ003-029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER