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000
FXUS63 KFGF 220429
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1129 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

A strong storm has developed along the southern extent of the sfc
boundary...which should move out of region over the next hour.
Storm itself should move out of CWA within the next 30 to 45 min.

Adjusted morning POPs for showers/storms developing over cntrl SD
late tonight and lifting into the far southern valley near
morning. Overall change was bringing POPs northward about 25
miles, nothing significant but more in line with latest hi-res
guidance.

UPDATE Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Convection has cleared eastern zones with exception of two cells
in Beltrami and Hubbard counties. The severe thunderstorm watch is
no longer in effect. High Res models are bringing showers and
storms developing over SD late tonight into the far southern zones
by 12Z. Will make minor adjustments across Grant County as
activity is a bit further north than prev forecast had going. Also
activity now northeast of Glasgow MT will advect east north east
and move along intl border, arriving Towner county near morning.
Will adjust POPs accordingly.

.UPDATE Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jun 21
2017

Storms developed shortly after 430 PM in an area of 1K to 2K J/KG
MUCAPEs and are moving east at around 35 kts. The best shear is
behind the sfc boundary however latest operational EMC/RAP is
showing sufficient sfc-6km shear for development of severe
thunderstorms. Timing these storms out of the CWA in the 02Z to
03Z timeframe and a severe TS watch has been issued valid until
03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The chance for strong to severe storms will be the main forecast
challenge for late afternoon into early evening. Currently the
cold front is moving into the Devils Lake region, with fairly
gusty west to northwest winds behind it. Seeing afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points that
have crept above 60F. Looking at the SPC meso page, it shows
1000-1500 J/kg of sfc based CAPE, but mainly right along the front
and behind it. Strong push of 850mb winds into the northern Red
River Valley, where the Mayville radar shows a few small cells. So
far not seeing any enhanced cumulus development along the cold
front, so will continue to watch that too. Otherwise, most of the
high resolution models continue to break out storms along the
front, mainly in the 4 to 6 pm time frame. Most of the activity is
forecast to move east of the FA by 10 pm or so, so not looking at
a prolonged event. The high res models also show just a few
stronger cells and not a widespread event. After the storms move
out, west to northwest winds may be a little gusty into the
early evening, but should die down after sunset. Most of Thursday
looks to be quiet for the FA, although there may be a little pcpn
on the northern and southern fringes. Highs look to be a little
cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

For Thursday night through early next week, the Northern Plains
remain in northwest flow aloft as a trough digs into the eastern
half of the US. Thus rain chances primarily depend on the
propagation of a series of weak shortwaves moving quickly from
Canada to the Midwest. This pattern will yield some showers and
storms on and off through early next week, but poor operational
model agreement makes it difficult to pinpoint timing and location
of rain chances at this point. That being said, the weekend doesn`t
look to be a wash out by any means, and heavy rain or severe storms
are not anticipated due to lack of model agreement on any
significant signal.

The main impact for Friday through Sunday will be cooler weather.
Temperatures for Friday through Sunday will be below normal, with
highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures look to rebound starting
on Monday as an upper ridge builds in from the Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR...gusty west winds tomorrow aftn at DVL. No mention of FG
development at eastern sites as latest guidance generally in the
5SM to 7SM range (mist) so overall confidence is low.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Speicher