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000
FXUS63 KFGF 040405
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1005 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

BASED ON RADAR UPSTREAM SNOW AREA HUGGING ALONG HIGHWAY TWO ATTM
AS THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN.
SHORT RANGE RAP AND INCOMING NAM12 BRING THE BACKEDGE OF LIGHT
SNOW CURRENTLY NEAR RUGBY-CARRINGTON TO THE RED RIVER IN EAST
CENTRAL ND BY 08Z AND THEN PUSH IT EAST OF OUR MN FCST AREA BY
11Z. THIS IS LATER THAN EARLIER FCST AND THUS UPPED POPS AND
DELAYED SNOW ENDING. THIS SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS FINE SNOW
AND NOT ACCUMULATING MUCH -- GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH. MOST
SNOWFALL TODAY WAS IN THE FARGO AREA WITH 1.5 INCHES.

CLEARING NOTED VERY NEAR MANITOBA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AND THIS MAY
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT MOST MODELS SLIDE IT MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. WHERE IT CLEARS IT WILL DROP BLO ZERO QUICKLY BUT IN
CLOUDS TEMPS WILL HOLD UP. SO LOW TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY BUT KEPT
PREV FCST AREA OF SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
SOUTH.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

SNOW CHANCES WITH THE VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS THAT WERE HINTING AT THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION HAVE VERIFIED AS
A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH HAS FALLEN AT FARGO AND SNOW IS STILL
ONGOING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND
WEAKENING FROM FARGO TO PKD AND THEN REDEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD WITH PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOW BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AM NOT SURE ANY MODEL SOLUTION IS
TO BE TRUSTED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN
TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS OFF INTO MN LATER TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
TOMORROW. MODELS ALL BRING IN SOME PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS THAT THE MAIN BAND WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THINK THAT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA
WILL HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW TO THE FRINGES OF THE CWA AND WILL
KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE. HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF ALTHOUGH LEFT SOME LOW
POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR ANYTHING LINGERING. CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF
MILDER AIR AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD GET MORE INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS COLD AIR DOWN AGAIN
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
BRINGS THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE FAIRLY EARLY ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP 850MB TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
FOR A LONGER PERIOD. MAY BE WISH-CASTING...BUT THE GFS IS OFTEN TOO
PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BIT MORE WARMTH ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MAY HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE THURSDAY BUT CAN ADJUST AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES THU NIGHT/FRI BUT THERE IS ONE MORE LITTLE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST SAT/EARLY SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC.
TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BUT REALLY BEGIN TO BUMP UP SUN
POSSIBLY INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOW +4C TO +8C AT 850MB ON SUNDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WEST WINDS. THEREFORE CURRENTLY GOING AROUND 32F FOR
SUN HIGHS AND GUIDANCE NOW GIVING ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER FOR MON.
850MB TEMPS LOOK ABOUT 4 TO 8 C COOLER ON MONDAY SO WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF LATER RUNS COOL MONDAY HIGHS. COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TURNING
LIGHT NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...RIDDLE