Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Radar echos still occuring with no ground truth across the
southeastern FA. Will continue to see echos and thicker clouds
slide to the east and south with as the 700mb frontogenetically
forcing exits the area. Winds today will gradually increase into
the afternoon from the west then turn to the northwest this
evening behind the fropa. The short wave sliding just north of the
FA this evening is showing an impressive upper level curl on
water vapor this morning in northern Saskatchewan.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Today concern will be temperatures once again and some light snow
possible along a cold front passage this evening across the
northeastern quadrant of the forecast area. This morning 70mb
frontogenesis providing enough lift to create some elevated
showers across the southern valley. However dry blyr is limiting
echoes from reaching the ground. Will continue to maintain a dry
forecast for the morning hours. Westerly winds will develop this
afternoon and mix down from about 900mb. This will allow temps to
warm adiabatically into the 40s to near 50 across the central
valley. Cold front with winds turning the north northwest will
push across the area this evening in the 00Z- 06Z time frame. Went
ahead and added a snow chance across the Roseau to Baudette to
Waskisk areas as the fropa moves through. Minimal snowfall
accumulations are expected less than an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler as SFC high pressure with
925mb temps 5 to 10C below drops southeast across the
northeastern forecast area from Manitoba. As a result a seasonally
cold day with clear skies and north winds Tuesday with
temperatures struggling into the 20s and low 30s. Return flow
develops with south winds allowing for some temp recovery
Wednesday as max temps expected to warm into the 30s. With the
warm air advection light precipitation is expected starting
Wednesday late morning in the west. A gradual march to the east is
expected with some light snow possible north and a snow to rain
changeover in the south during the daylight hours then back to
snow in the Wednesday evening across west central MN in the
higher elevations of the lakes and trees.

Thursday will see moisture spread north ahead of a deep 500 mb low
that will be over the southern Rockies.  Rain with this feature
looks to spread to about Fargo-Bemidji with heaviest rainfall
amounts south of our region.  Northern stream more westerly flow
aloft will keep northern areas dry.  As the upper low moves east
into the southern plains Friday drier air will get pushed a bit
south with main rain chances in eastern SD into southern MN.
Saturday and Sunday look mainly dry and seasonably mild with highs
above freezing and lows a bit below freezing.  So a slow melt
process for the Devils Lake basin.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR today with winds turning to the west and then NNW with fropa
this evening. Gusts this afternoon and evening in the 20 to 25kt
range possible at DVL, GFK, and TVF with CIGS at or above 5000ft.




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