Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191141
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MOST AREAS ARE AT OR BELOW 32 THIS MORNING...SO THE FREEZE WARNING
IS IN GOOD SHAPE UNTIL 9 AM. NO CHANGES ARE NEED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...SO NO
REAL PREFERENCE HERE. THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM IS IN
GOOD SHAPE...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HEADLINE. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND FALL TO AROUND 30.

FOR TODAY...COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE
REGION...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY. ONCE THE CLOUDS
CLEAR THE SOUTHERN FA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECTING NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN A DRY COLUMN AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AROUND 80.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST...BUT GIVEN SOME
WARMING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WON/T MENTION YET BUT HAVE TO
MONITOR THREAT TODAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH MID
LEVEL WAA AND CONTINUED LIGHTER WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM TO
AROUND 70 ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. 925MB TEMPS WILL APPROACH
+14C ON THU...SO SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
AND DRY CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS...FAIR SKIES...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY AFFECT THE SOUTH AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS. A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME FAIR INSTABILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE ON DETAILS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT THE EC
STILL HAS A WAVE IN THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. THE
CANADIAN FAVORS THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER WY/SD AND A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS...EXTENDED FORECAST FAVORS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

RECENT RAINS CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS. THE MAPLE
RIVER NEAR MAPLETON IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND LATEST HYDROGRAPH
INDICATES CRESTING SHOULD BE SOON. ALSO TWO RIVERS RIVER AT
HALLOCK IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND STILL RISING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO CREST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO REMAINS AT
ACTION STAGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHER RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE INCLUDE PARK RIVER AT
GRAFTON AND THE SHEYENNE RIVER AT HARWOOD. FORTUNATELY...A DRY
REST OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...KNUTSVIG



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