Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181736
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A little bit of lingering light rain/drizzle over the far eastern
tier, but overall the precip has been clearing out. Adjusted POPs
accordingly. There is a bit of clearing entering the northwestern
counties, but the rest of the CWA is socked in with some fairly
low stratus. Lowered highs a bit in a few places due to increased
clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through thursday night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Upper level pattern remains rather progressive. Upper level low
pressure system was located over the central ND/SD border and was
moving to the east at 30-35 knots. Line of thunderstorms was moving
across eastern SD and the far southern Red River Valley. Expect
storms to keep moving east across the far southern valley.
Occasional thunder can be expected roughly across the southern half
of the area this morning or roughly south of Hwy 200.

Other issue is snow Light snow is possible over parts of the Devils
Lake basin and into Nelson county. Couple inches of snow is possible
here. Light snow also expected over the far northeast zones in Lake
of the Woods and Roseau counties. An inch or two is possible this
morning. Most of the snow should melt with warm ground.  Surface low
pressure system was located over northern SD and will move to LS by
late afternoon.

Next upper level system will move across SD on Wed/Wed night and
produce rain over the southern Red River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Surface high pressure moves through Friday morning, bringing a
precipitation free period with light wind and decreasing cloud
cover. As a south wind returns and a weak upper level ridge moves
through the Northern Plains, expect Friday and Saturday to be the
warmest days of the week with high temperatures reaching into the
60s.

Friday through Sunday timeframe is mostly dry across the forecast
area, and potential impacts appear minimal during this period. The
forecast becomes more complex Saturday into Sunday and beyond as a
closed upper low over the Central Plains matures, inducing split
flow aloft. With a surface front moving eastward through the
Northern Plains and moisture content remaining uncertain for
Saturday afternoon/evening, kept small chances for rain showers in
for Saturday night. Temperatures through the weekend will remain
near normal values with highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the
30s.

The model solutions begin to differ in their progression of surface
features by early next week, but most recent runs depict a return of
zonal flow aloft and a more active weather pattern setting up for
next week. This pattern looks to start with a shortwave developing
rapidly in the Rockies Sunday/Sunday night, bringing precipitation
chances to the Northern Plains for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Most TAF sites are MVFR to IFR, although KDVL is starting to come
up and has some clearing spots upstream. Have ceilings improving
throughout the afternoon with most sites VFR by this evening. Some
clearing in spots but there is the possibility of some high and
mid cloud coming in from the west later on. North to northeast
winds that are somewhat breezy will become light and variable
overnight. Depending on clouds, may have to watch for some patchy
fog development early tomorrow morning especially in areas that
got rain. However, there is enough uncertainty with clearing and
how fast winds drop off to keep vis up for now and will just keep
an eye on things. Most model guidance is also keeping things VFR
overnight, so will monitor for future issuances.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JR



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