Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151150
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An 70 percent chance of red flag fire weather conditions for
  southeast North Dakota due to RH values in the 20-25 percent
  range and wind gusts over 30 mph. Lowest RH values Sargent and
  Ransom counties.

- A 90 percent chance of winds meeting advisory criteria in
  northeast North Dakota this afternoon and evening. A 60
  percent chance of gusts 45-50 mph in northeast North Dakota in
  the higher terrain along west edge of the Red River valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Visibilities due to fog has greatly improved since 10z as
anticipated. A few sites with sub 3SM vsbys but overall was able
to remove fog mention in grids, which was in there thru 13z.
Updated sky cover a bit as clearing is working east into GFK and
will be into SE ND thru mid morning. Nothing suggests any
further changes needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Focus on today is winds and RH values and resultant impacts from
both. Low pressure is seen in northern Saskatchewan from
observations at 08z and 500 mb low is seen on water vapor in
same area. This will move quickly southeast toward NW Ontario by
late today. 850 mb warm advection to the south of the sfc
low/500 mb low will bring warmer temperatures today, but speed
of system will bring warmth into SE ND this mid to late aftn
while cooler air is starting to spread into NE ND by mid aftn.
Highs today in the mid 50s DVL-GFK and south to upper 40s
north and east. 50-55 kt 850 mb winds progged to be entering
northern ND 18z-21z and spreading south...though peak winds
aloft not reaching southern RRV til more so this evening. Wind
advisory issued for the aftn/eve in areas of NE ND to Valley
City where sustained winds of 30-35 mph and gusts 45-50 mph are
possible.

Next up is RH values. BIS coordinated going lower than NBM dew
pts for this aftn mixing in drier RAP model dew pts with mid to
upper teens dew points late aftn in SE ND due to dry west wind
and drier fuels in this area. Seeing RH values 20-25 pct minimum
along with wind gusts 30-40 mph in SE ND during period of
lowest RH values lead to issuance of red flag warning for fire
weather concerns into SE ND. Lower dew pts do make into into
parts of west central MN but widespread RH values under 25 pct
not anticipated and also less wind in that area. So no headline
for fire weather was done after coord with MPX. Will mention
elevated fire wx conditions in parts of WC MN in HWO.

In terms of precipitation a quick moving area of light rain
showers will likely affect NW MN this aftn..with slight chances
farther southwest into northeast/east central ND. Lingering
chances of precipitation in NW MN, mainly around Lake of the
Woods, tonight and this will be rain/snow turning to chance of
snow showers. Overall though at this stage any accumulations
would be trace and no impacts are anticipated. WPC prob WSSI has
chance of minor impacts 5 pct or less in this area.

Saturday windy and cooler with core of colder airmass moving in
Sunday. Doesnt appear wind advisory conditions will be met.

Next week will feature additional short waves moving south or
southeast from western Canada into the northwest and north
central U.S. keeping temperatures closer to normal values. Next
system of any importance does seem to arrive Thu-Fri of next
week as an upper wave and sfc low move to our south. Some winter
impacts from this are possible....but being far out chance of
minor impacts vis prob WSSI is in the 10-20 percent range over
the entire area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions across the TAF sites as patchy
fog has been developing and dissipating throughout the night.
As the sun rises this will help mix out any fog and low clouds.
By the afternoon VFR conditions should prevail across the TAF
sites. However, with this upcoming systems winds will ramp up
after 17z with sustained westerly winds between 20-30kts and
gusts up to 40- 42kts for eastern North Dakota affecting; KDVL,
KGFK, and KFAR. For KTVF and KBJI sustained westerly winds
between 15-25 kts with gust up to 30 knots after 17z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

In coord with WFO Bismarck, a red flag warning was issued into
SE ND. Going lower than model progged RH and dew point values
due to west winds and dry fuels. This leads to min RH values in
the 20-25 pct range along I-94 and south in SE ND. West winds
gusting 30-40 mph also in this area of lower RH. The period of
concern is 18z to 01z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>029-038-054.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...MM
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle


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