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000
FXUS63 KFGF 140007
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

NO SIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING FORECAST GRIDS.
EXISTING SCT CU FIELD WILL LIKELY DISIPATE WITH SUNSET. HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILTER INTO ERN ND LATE THIS EVENING... AND
OVERSPREAD NWRN MN THROUGH FIRDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY MORNING... AND INCREASE STEADILY
MIDDAY.  TSTM RISK INCREASES AFTER MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SPC HAS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX
ON DAY2. LOTS OF THINGS WILL COME INTO PLAY YET WITH THIS
ESPECIALLY HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER THE
FA FRI. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OR HOW FAST SFC HEATING TAKES
PLACE. LIKE THE GFS IDEA AT THIS POINT. WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
REMAINING OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ANY CONVECTION
THAT FORMS FRI AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THINK
THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER ANYWAY ACROSS NW MN. BETTER SFC
HEATING WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE GFS SHOWS GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG CAPE BY AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE
ACROSS THE WEST/NW FA. THEREFORE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
SEVERE WX THREAT SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST TOO. CONVECTION
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SAT LOOKS DRY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDER POSSIBLE ON SUN AS
THE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.

FOR MON NIGHT THRU THU THE LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME DIFFERENCES ON DAY 7.
SUN NIGHT A WAVE WILL PULL OUT OF THE REGION AND SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. NW FLOW PATTERN THEN SETS UP AND
RESULTS IN POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ON MON BEFORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER FROM MON
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP ON WED
AND TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE INTO THE 80S...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIP BY THU. 12Z ECMWF DID BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION AS
EARLY AS THU...HOWEVER 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE BOTH DRY. DO
THINK BETTER CHANCE WILL BE THU AND CONSALL SOLUTION LOOKS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BLAYER FLOW THROUGH TEH
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSTMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ERN ND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON... SPREADING INTO WRN
MN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST