Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPED POPS WITHIN NARROW BAND OF -SN PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST. AT
THIS TIME WEB CAMS NOT INDICATING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATIONS...LESS
THAN AN INCH SO FAR. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW
BAND LATE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE REACHING RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES
NOT RECOVERING VERY MUCH AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JK





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