019
FXUS63 KFGF 011728
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm chances and potential for heavy rain on
  Independence Day and Night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Mostly clear skies prevail across most of the area this
afternoon. Temperatures are in the lower to middle 80s with
west to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph.

UPDATE
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A few mid clouds from SW Manitoba into northeast ND. Otherwise
clear. Will have plenty of sunshine today. 06z models show the
next short wave and chance for a few showers/t-storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...Synopsis...

First of July and the forecast coming up thru the next 7 days
shows it with scattered chances for thunderstorms for most days,
also warm and humid 4th coming up.

As if often the case summer time forecasting revolves around
timing of individual short waves and interaction with a
potentially unstable atmosphere and then figuring out what is
the potential outcomes.

500 mb short wave in Alberta....with another weaker one moving
into SW Manitoba at 08z Tues. The one in SW Manitoba will bring
a band of mid clouds southeast but that is about it. The short
wave in Alerta will move east-southeast into SW Manitoba by late
today (21-00z) and has bit of strength to it, enough lift with
this wave to generate a few showers and t-storms in SW Manitoba.
These storms (non-severe) will develop southeast into northeast
ND and northwest MN during the evening and overnight. Not high
coverage of storms though. Have 20-30 pops for this feature, but
may need to increase pops in a few areas far north RRV and NW MN
once a preferred development zone is recognized.

Otherwise Tuesday will be a warmer day with highs well into the
80s.

Wednesday as well, a very warm day with highs mid 80s to near
90. That short wave in SW Manitoba will be in east central MN
Wed aftn and should allow the development of scattered storms in
parts of central into east central MN. At this time, I feel it
would be east or southeast of our forecast area. SPC did have
the southeast fcst area in marginal risk day 2, but feel that is
a big aggressive from what I see from CAMs. There is another
short wave Tues night into Wednesday moving thru SD and then
tracking southeast into SW Minnesota Wed aftn.

Thursday will see another uptick in temps and the spread of
deeper moisture northward into SE ND in the aftn as PWATs
increase to over 1.50 inches. 850 mb warm advection occurring
and 500 mb heights rising as warmer 700 mb airmass moves in.
Potential for some convection Thu night in the warm advection,
but low confidence in this.

...Severe Storm and Heavy Rain Potential 4th of July....

Lots more questions arise for what will happen on the 4th
severe weather wise. If anything the degree of instability is a
bit less than advertised a day or two ago, perhaps due to 13C at
700 mb. PWATs increase to over 2 inches, and with weak lapse
rates to past 700 mb feel that severe chances are diminishing
and being replaced by heavy rainfall chance. 0-6 km shear is
weak 20-25 kts but models do have 30 kts or so in areas where
storms can form Friday aftn. Most models have idea of a large
area of t-storms late Friday into Friday night...again may be
more heavy rain threat vs severe. But no doubt some severe risk
remains but low confidence in how widespread.

Lingering chances for showers and t-storms Saturday and early
next week showing typical summer time chances for daily
precipitation as 500 mb flow is more westerly and upper waves
move through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
West to northwest winds prevail at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to
near 20 knots. Wind gusts diminish this evening, with winds
becoming light and variable during the overnight period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/Lynch
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch