Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
640 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Showers across the far se-e not very impressive but will continue
with low pops into the evening. Otherwise some minor cloud cover
adjustments with the remainder of the forecast ok.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Main challenge into tonight will be decreasing winds and any
lingering showers. Winds in the Red River Valley have peaked and
will continue a slow decrease now into the early evening. Winds
have already decreased in the Devils Lake region, but they may
increase a bit again as the westerly winds and clearing come in.
There are still a few showers, mainly in the northeast FA, moving
northeast. High resolution models show some additional shower
development over northeast ND into northwest MN by early evening,
continuing into late evening. Confidence low in this additional
shower development, but if it does form, pcpn amounts would be
minimal. Clouds should decrease from west to east tonight, with a
little more sun around Friday morning as well. Clouds will likely
increase again during the afternoon, but not quite as extensive as
today. Areas with more sun will be a little warmer, which should
be areas along/south of highway 200. There may be a few showers in
the far east on Friday as well, but again pretty minimal if at

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Pronounced upper low swirling from Saskatchewan to Manitoba over the
weekend will send spokes of upper instability into the Northern
Plains over the weekend, but the forecast area will be under west to
northwest flow resulting in mainly dry weather with near seasonable
temperatures. An exception could come Sat aftn into early evening as
a shortwave combines with modest CAPE and marginal LI/Showalter
indices to create shower chances with possibilities for isolated
thunder. The same situation presents itself for later Sun as the
next wave heads down from the NW enhancing chances for convection.

The upper low over Manitoba will gradually migrate to the east
through the middle and end of next week, winding up in central
Ontario. The scenario will be that of a longwave ridge hung up over
the northern Rockies with the broad trough over the Ohio Valley and
Midwest. Little movement is expected with our area remaining in
northwest flow. Surface systems won`t be very distinct, but some
wraparound type pcpn combined with 850 mb temps barely above 0 C
will make for a cool Memorial day with highs only within a few
degrees of 60. Improvement should come during Tue with a return to
dry weather and more seasonal readings Wed and Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions through the period with main challenge being timing
of wshft however winds will not be strong.




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