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000
FXUS63 KMQT 060533
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1233 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME A
RIDGE AXIS RUNNING FROM JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY...SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHERN MN...WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND DRY AIR OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
AS WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND WARMER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED
TO BE A GOOD 10 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WHICH
AGAIN...WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 850MB WINDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALOFT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER...AS MORE MIXING OCCURS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WOULD EXPECT STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. AS THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN...GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THE
BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
MOST OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP DRY LAYER
THAT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS AND THE AREA IS A BIT
CLOSER TO AT LEAST WEAK FORCING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS ON THU
NGT INTO FRI AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND/THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES OVERALL WRN RDG/ERN
TROF PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE
PATTERN WL BE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY WITH
MORE SEASONABLE...LESS CHILLY TEMPS THE RESULT.

THU NGT/FRI...MODELS SHOW A PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/NRN TIER CONUS SWINGING THRU ONTARIO DURING
THIS TIME. SINCE THE AIRMASS WL BE INITIALLY QUITE DRY...THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE
INITIAL SHRTWV MAY BE UTILIZED JUST TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE. BUT
WITH ARRIVAL OF HIER H85-7 MSTR...WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST TO
APRCH 3 G/KG BY 12Z FRI...AS WELL AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER SECOND SHRTWV...EXPECT INCRSG POPS LATER THU NIGHT OVER
MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. WITH A STRONG SW WIND AHEAD OF THESE
DISTURBANCES BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED
LO PRES TROF APRCHG FM THE W...FCST NAM/GFS SDNGS SHOW PRONOUNCED
ELEVATED WARM LYR WITH WARMEST LVLS BTWN ABOUT H8-85 PEAKING AT A
FEW DEGEES ABV 0C OVER MAINLY THE SCENTRAL CWA. SINCE THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY IN THIS SAME LYR WITH WBLB TEMP AT 0C OR JUST
BLO...SUSPECT ANY LGT PCPN MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME
FREEZING RA PER THE WARMER NAM OVER THE SCENTRAL FOR AT LEAST A TIME
UNTIL SUFFICIENT UPWARD MOTION ARRIVES TO TURN THE PCPN OVER TO SN
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING TENDS TO
END THE PCPN NW-SE LATER ON FRI. GIVEN THE INTERACTION BTWN THE
SHRTWVS/INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...OPS MODEL QPF AND EVEN THE FCST MSLP
FIELDS VARY WIDELY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE POPS/QPF
IS RATHER LO. GIVEN ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND QUESTIONS AS TO DEGREE OF
SUSTAINED DYNAMIC SUPPORT...SUSPECT SN TOTALS DURING THIS EVENT WL
BE NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IF THE WETTER/COLDER
GUIDANCE LED BY THE 12Z GFS/CNDN MODELS VERIFIES. ALTHOUGH HI
STABILITY SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS ASSOCIATED WITH WAD WL LIMIT
MIXING OF H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS...STEADY SW WIND/ THICKENING
CLDS WL GREATLY RESTRICT ANY DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE W NEAR LK SUP WITH DOWNSLOPE S WIND. IN FACT... TEMPS MAY RISE
FOR A TIME DURING THE NGT. BEFORE THE COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND SHRTWV SWINGS THRU ON FRI...EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER ABV 32
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF UPR MI...ESPECIALLY THE SCENTRAL.

FRI NGT/SAT...AS DRY AIRMASS/SFC HI PRES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE BREAK UP OF ICE COVER OVER LK SUP...
THERE MAY BE SOME LK CLDS/LGT SN SHOWERS IN THE CHILLY N BACKING
TOWARD W FLOW AS H85 TEMPS FALL BACK TOWARD -15C. BUT ICE COVER/
GENERALY ACYC FLOW/FCST INVRN BASE FALLING TOWARD 3K FT AGL WL LIMIT
THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY LES. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK...MSTR
DEPRIVED CLIPPER SHRTWV MAY APRCH LATER IN THE DAY...OVERALL DRYNESS
AND LLVL ACYC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE IMPACT TO SOME SCT-BKN MID CLDS.

SAT NGT/SUN...ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV/SFC LO ARE PROGGED TO DIG SEWD
THRU ONTARIO/THE UPR LKS ON SUN. MODEL FCSTS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOWING A FARTHER N PATH
THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP AND RELATIVELY LTL PCPN OVER UPR MI ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THIS MSTR STARVED DISTUBANCE. SFC TEMPS WOULD LIKELY
RISE AOA 32 IN THIS SCENARIO. THE 12Z CNDN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND
INDICATES A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SFC LO WL TRACK SEWD NEAR THE WI/MI
BORDER...BUT WITH MORE SN AND COLDER AIR OVER UPR MI. UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE APRNT...WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FCST FOR
NOW.

EXTENDED...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS THAT A PARADE OF ALBERTA
CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS WL BE SLIDING SEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS IN THE
GENERAL NW FLOW BTWN LESS AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF. WHILE THESE
DISTURBANCES WL BE MSTR STARVED...MODELS DO SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP
THERMAL GRADIENT WL BE IN PLACE...INDICATING THERE COULD BE A NARROW
BAND OF HEAVIER PCPN FOR AT LEAST A TIME MOSTLY LIKELY ON THE COLD NE
SIDE OF THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO TRACK. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST PERIOD...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE FCST TIMING/TRACK OF THE CLIPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW. WITH SHARP GRADIENTS IN TEMP
AND PCPN LIKELY...WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS FCST AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS WARMER AIR BEGINS
ADVECTING OVER THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH MIXING TO TRANSITION LLWS TO GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LAYER. LLWS WILL RETURN AT IWD THU EVENING AGAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30KT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KEC