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000
FXUS63 KMQT 041137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA THAT HAS DOMINATED WL
LINGER THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BTWN
THE TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO
EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN TEMPS MAY RECOVER ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF ANY LES.

THU...SFC HI PRES OVER MN AT 12Z THU IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE ESE...
WITH SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS CROSSING UPR MI...UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS ALOFT. ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE NW CWA AND NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -24C EARLY IN THE DAY WL
TEND TO DIMINISH AND LIFT OUT INTO LK SUP UNDER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT IN THE AFTN
AS THE FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE SW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG
AXIS. DESPITE AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL AND IN THE TEENS AS H85 TEMPS
REBOUND TO ONLY -16C OVER THE W TO -20C OVER THE E BY 00Z FRI.

THU NGT...A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SINKING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF FM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF WAA AND INCRSG CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN
OVER THE FAR W LATE AS THE TROF EDGES CLOSER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FCST PASSAGE TO THE S OF THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHRTWV JUSTIFY NO
HIER THAN SCHC POPS FOR THE WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SW
FLOW/INCRSG CLDS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...MORE FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVNG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO AT LEAST CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

FRI...AS LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR DRIFT TO THE E...CLDS AND
SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES OVER THE W EARLY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BUOYED BY SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI INTO
THE ERN CWA. ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND WEAK SFC HI
PRES RDG BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING SOME DRYING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO -8C OVER THE W TO
-12C OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT MODERATING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS OVER THE E WL BE COLDEST WITH SW WIND OFF
THE CHILLY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY ICE COVERED NRN LK MI.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER MSTR-STARVED CLIPPER SHRWTV IS FCST TO DIG SE
THRU THE UPR LKS AND DRAG A COLD FNT ACROSS UPR MI LATE FRI NGT/
EARLY SAT. THE 00Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 12HR 00Z-12Z
SAT H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M COINCIDENT WITH SOME VIGOROUS DVPA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER
SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE LARGE VARIATION IN FCST SCENARIOS THIS FAR
OUT IN A SITUATION THAT TYPICALLY HAS POOR PREDICTABILITY...
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APRCH WITH CHC POPS...HIEST OVER THE NRN TIER
AND LK SUP LATE FRI NGT. TRENDED DRIER ON SAT WITH EXPECTATION THAT
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV. BUT SINCE
COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -14C BY LATE SAT
AND THE GFS SHOWS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AS WELL...MAINTAINED SOME
CHC POPS THRU THE DAY ON SAT...MAINLY NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV WL
TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO LATE ON SUN...SO MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS OVER
MAINLY THE NRN TIER NEAR LK SUP CLOSER TO THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING/
DEEPER MSTR/SOME LK INFLUENCE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPR FLOW TENDING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS. A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO TRACK THRU NW ONTARIO IN THE
MON/TUE TIME...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER UPR MI SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
SGNFT PCPN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL MSTR INFLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO RISE AOA 0C ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE CLIPPE LO...SO MAX
TEMPS MAY AT LEAST APRCH 40 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON AND/OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO COME DOWN SOME TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXACT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR ADDS SOME ADDITIONAL COMPLEXITY TO THE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS