Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 160702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
302 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes
this morning which quickly moves through and then westerly upper
flow takes over through the rest of the forecast period. 850-500 mb
q-vector convergence and moisture move out this morning. Much
quieter this morning than yesterday morning, but still did get some
lightning strikes earlier at start of shift off of P59 with lake
enhancement and a shortwave moving through the area. Have some pops
in across eastern Lake Superior to cover this. Warmed temperature up
a bit today with drier air and southwest winds allowing temperatures
to warm rapidly. There will also be some downslope component in
southwest wind downslope areas near Lake Superior. Overall, a few
minor changes here and there to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

Overall, not much has changed for later this week into early next
week. We are looking for above normal temperatures with the next
best chance for precipitation holding off until the weekend.

Tuesday through Friday, the upper-level pattern will remain
progressive through the week with transient upper-level ridging
builds across the Upper Great Lakes through Wednesday. This will
usher in warmer air, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s, with a few 70s possible in areas that experience
downslope flows. By Wednesday night into Thursday, a sharp, quick
moving shortwave will clip the region to the north and will push a
weak cold front across Upper Michigan. No precipitation is expected,
only an increase in cloud cover. However, cold air advection on the
backside of this front will push temperatures briefly back down into
the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday. Into Friday, strong warm
air advection out of the Plains and up into central Canada will
allow strong upper-level ridging to develop across the region. This
will bring in another bout of unseasonably warm temperatures.

This weekend into early next week, longwave troughing will track
across the central CONUS and increase cloud cover across the region,
along with precipitation chances. The main area of low pressure
associated with this upper-level energy will remain well north of
the CONUS up in Canada; however, the trailing cold front will move
across Upper Michigan. With model-to-model and run-to-run
variability still present, confidence remains low in regards to the
timing of precipitation. Temperature wise, ahead of the cold front
on Saturday expect the unseasonably warm temperatures to continue.
Immediately behind the front, cold air advection is not terribly
impressive, so do not expect a dramatic cool down for Sunday or

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period.
Winds will become gusty at times this aftn, especially at KCMX where
gusts to 20-25kt will occur. LLWS will then develop at all
terminals tonight.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 301 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

Expect the winds to ramp back up to 20 to 30 knots into tonight. No
gales seen after that as winds look to remain in the 15 to 25 knot
range mostly. Do get close to gales on Thu with west winds up to 30

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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