Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 041139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THU INTO FRI AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. SFC RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER UPPER MI ON THU THEN SHIFTS E THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXTENDS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING TO BEGIN AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS
LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING ON FRI AND H85 TEMPS
16-18C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 70S EAST TO
MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR WEST. ALTHOUGH MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 25 PCT
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.

THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL ABRUPTLY END AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DESCENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES STEEPER THAN 7C/KM AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/ASSOC COLD FRONT AND
SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR OF U.P. ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG MAIN VORT MAX TRACK DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-
30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20 MPH INLAND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED INTO EARLY WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
CONUS TO NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MORE
PROMINENT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE SUPRESSED RIDGE. HOW MUCH RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA WL IMPACT TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT INLAND
HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 70S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. ASSOC SFC RDGG SHOULD KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SFC LOW AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KCMX AND KSAW TODAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OR
TWO OF HIGH-END IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSAW THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC
AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX
AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER


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