Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261743
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
143 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE SLOW TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL
BEGIN TODAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGING THE OCTOBER-LIKE WEATHER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. WITH 85H THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING ON OVER EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT IT WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE
THOSE AREAS SEE ANY SUNSHINE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNWIND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH DRYING WINNING OUT...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL STILL BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST THEY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESULT IN A HIGH SWIM RISK ALONG THE ALGER
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT ONLY AROUND 60 AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE RIDGING RIGHT OVER HEAD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LOWS SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF VERY COOL WX...LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MORE
SEASONABLE WX TO END THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS
LATE THU NGT INTO SAT...PCPN CHCS APPEAR LIMITED BY THE PLACEMENT OF
UPR MI BTWN DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE N AND S OF THE UPR LKS. A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE WX APPEARS ON TAP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR RDG IS
FCST TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF
ACROSS THE W.

THU...EXPECT A MOSUNNY AND WARMER DAY ON THU WITH HI PRES/ACYC SW
FLOW/DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING. H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 12-14C BY LATE
IN THE DAY WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.

THU NGT...UPR MI IS FCST TO BE SITUATED BTWN FAST WNW FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA AND A WEAKER SRN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DISTURBANCE
IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO SLIDE ESEWD THRU ONTARIO DURING THE NGT
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT APRCHG NW LK SUP LATE. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SHRTWV IN THE SRN BRANCH WL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY ESEWD THRU THE MID/
UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATED SOME SPOTTY
LGT PCPN OVER THE NW HALF OF UPR MI LATE AT NGT WITH THE RETURN OF
SOME HIER H85 THETA E AIR IN THE WLY FLOW TO THE S OF DISTURBANCE
PASSING THRU ONTARIO...AXIS OF WEAK FORCING/LINGERING LLVL ACYC FLOW
OVER UPR MI BTWN AREAS OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING/CYC FLOW PASSING
TO THE S AND THE N AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING FAVOR THE DRIER
MODELS. SO CUT POPS TO NO HIER THAN LO CHC NEAR ISLE ROYALE CLOSER
TO APRCHG COLD FNT.

FRI THRU SAT...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR S COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING NRN BRANCH SHRTWV WL
REACH/BECOME STNRY AND ALSO ON TRACK OF SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE/NRN
EDGE OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIELD. GIVEN THE BLDG UPR RDG IN THE
PLAINS THAT WL FAVOR A MORE WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR LKS...
SUSPECT THE 00Z ECMWF/18Z GFS SHOWING A FARTHER N PCPN AREA ARE OFF
THE MARK AND THAT THE FARTHER S TRACK OF THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
IS CORRECT WITH ACCOMPANYING PCPN REMAINING TO THE S OF UPR MI.
SEEMS THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WL BE IF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
BRANCH FLOW OVER SCENTRAL CANADA DRIFTS CLOSE ENUF TO THE STNRY FNT
ALIGNED W-E SOMEWHERE IN THE UPR LKS TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/PERHAPS
A TS OVER UPR MI. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SFC FNT
POSITIONED TO THE N OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING AXIS OF LLVL ACYC FLOW
OVER UPR MI...TENDED TO GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS. WITH H85 TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 14C...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVG A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT NGT THRU TUE...BLDG UPR RDG DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING TROF OVER
WRN NAMERICA IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF DRY AND WARMER WX AS A LLVL ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PREVAILS. H85 TEMPS FCST TO
REACH 16-20C ON SUN AND THEN AOA 20C ON MON WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS
A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE UPR RDG MAY
APRCH OR PASS NEXT TUE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS EARLY AS LATE
MON...WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF
THE UPR RDG.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY CLEARED
OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THERE THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX/KSAW...MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT FOR NOW...INCLUDED MVFR VIS LATE TONIGHT ONLY AT
KSAW WITH CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE AT THAT TERMINAL. ITS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
LAKE WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE TODAY.  OTHER THAN A PERIOD
OF TIME EARLY FRIDAY WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS
OVER  THE EASTERN LAKE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MZ


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