Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 262021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE IA LIFTING TO THE NE. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM NRN WI THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. WITH
MLCAPE/MUCPE FROM NRN WI INTO UPPER MI ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG THE
STRONGER TSRA OVER NE WI HAVE DIMINISHED LEAVING ONLY EMBEDDED ISOLD
TSRA WITH THE SHRA. AT THE SFC(19Z)...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SW CORNER OF WI WITH A TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE
NE INTO WRN UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH ONLY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS SOME
CLEARING AND ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE SOUTH BEHIND INITIAL BATCH
OF SHOWERS...THE INSTABILITY MAY RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE VORT CENTER GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILE (0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS). OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
TOWARD THE AREA PUSHING PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS INTO THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...IN LINE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV.

WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL DEPART TO THE NE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CLEARING AND AFTERNOON
HEATING (TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...STRONG TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL PAST THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE U.P. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER FORCING WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST HALF TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
BRIEF BREAK WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A CONTINUED BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME...WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW PLACEMENT ALONG
WITH COLD FRONT TIMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHILE
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
DURING PEAK HEATING...MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-700 J/KG FROM THE
GFS TO AROUND 800-1100 J/KG FROM THE EC...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND
WEST. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER
OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IF SKIES ARE
OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER...HELPING TO
REDUCE THE SEVERE RISK. SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 TO
40 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. THE RISK AGAIN WILL BE
CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALSO ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE LAKES.
TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AS
NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. CALM
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN CHANCES IS LOW. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
IN BUT DECIDED TO ADJUST THEM BACK TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES IN MIND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SSW WILL BRING SHRA TO THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT. SOME TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN CNTRL UPPER MI AFFECTING SAW AS WELL...BUT PROBABILIATY
IS TOO SMALL TO PUT INTO TAFS FOR NOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. ALTHOUGH VSBY
AT CMX MAY DROP BLO 1SM...THE RAIN WILL HELP LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR MORE
DENSE FOG AOB LANDING MINIMUMS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE THEY WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



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