Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 162012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-
     003>006-084-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.