Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 120834
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
434 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SINKING BROAD 500MB W-E ORIENTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM WY TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. THE RESULT HAS
BEEN...DESPITE THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE N
CENTRAL U.S...MOISTURE STREAMING NE ACROSS THE S AND CENTRAL PLAINS
/FROM TX THROUGH IA AND S MN/. THE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN THE
FORM OF DZ AND -RA...HAS BEEN ABLE TO SHIFT INTO SW WI BY 08Z THIS
LOOKS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. WHILE UTILIZING A LOT OF
THE SMALLER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS SLIGHTER EASTERN SCENARIO
WAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO
DICKINSON AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES AROUND 18Z. IN THE MEANTIME WE ARE
DEALING WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING WHICH HAS BEEN ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO W UPPER MI.
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS W AND CENTRAL THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

STILL...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND OVER LAKE MI
THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE ENTIRE 700-500MB TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TREND TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SE...A QUICKER EXIT LOOKED REASONABLE.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE QUICKER EXIT OF SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO HAVE TEMPS END UP A BIT LOWER THAN FCST. 850MB TEMPS
WILL LINGER AROUND -2C CWA WIDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE W THIRD OVERNIGHT...WITH
PW VALUES FALLING TO 35-45 PERCENT OF NORMAL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY...OR POTENTIALLY FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE W THIRD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT.
THE MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH.
THE AREA OF BEST Q-VECT CONV PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF IN THE
EVENING THEN MOVES EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS AT FIRST WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD END LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EAST OF MARQUETTE
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS AND ONSHORE NW FLOW DEVELOPS. AS
SUCH...WILL HANG ONTO LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST LATER FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS IN BY SAT AFTN. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 FRI NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKESHORE SAT MORNING.

REGARDING FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING...WITH THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NWP
SUGGEST THAT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT OVER THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING ESPECIALLY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH FROST CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO END BY SAT AFTN. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...IT SHOULD END UP BEING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.40 INCH. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE AREA IN THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT WILL STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH ANY PCPN ACROSS THE
UP...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. HOWEVER...WILL CONFINE THESE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR WEST AS
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD PCPN
FROM MOVING EAST TOO QUICKLY.

FOR THE EXTENDED...EXPECT THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD KEEPING NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY FAIRLY QUIET. MAY CONTINUE WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD.
BUT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE/LIFT REMAINING NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT IWD AND CMX AND MAINLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVER MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND GUSTS GENERALLY
BELOW 25KTS. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT WILL SLIDE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALLER LOW
OVER S MANITOBA SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO CROSS ONTARIO WHILE DRAGGING A
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE E TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004-005-011-084.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ009-010.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF





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