Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 271853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
253 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 454 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Satellite imagery this morning is showing cloud cover stretching
from the central U.P., westward to into the Northern Plains. Water
vapor imagery shows a shortwave over western MN. Radar trends show a
broken line of showers and thunderstorms across south central Upper
Michigan stretching westward into norther WI. This appears to be
developing along or just ahead of a weak cold front sliding south
through the area.

Today: The aforementioned cold front is progged to continue sagging
very slowly southward through the area today before stalling south
of the U.P. tonight. The cold front will be the main focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning along the WI border
into south central Upper Michigan this morning, with much of the
remainder of the U.P. only seeing increased cloud cover. Hi-Res
model solutions have been struggling to pin down the convection
early this morning and have been of little help. Attention then
turns to the aforementioned approaching shortwave over western MN
this morning. After timing this feature out, it looks as if the best
time for increased shower and thunderstorm activity would be between
15Z and 00z as the shortwave slides through the Upper Great Lakes
region. Again, the best chances have been kept across mainly the
south half of the U.P. as this will be where the better forcing,
instability and moisture are focused, along and just ahead of the
front. CAPE values this afternoon are progged to be around 500-1000
J/kg with about 25 to 30 knots of shear oriented parallel to the
front. This combination should help keep the severe weather risk
fairly low across the area.

Tonight: The front and shortwave continue southeastward tonight as
drier, anticyclonic flow/high pressure slides into the U.P. from the
north. This should effectively end the chances of showers and
thunderstorms across most of the area by early evening, except for
the far south central portions of the U.P. where an isolated shower
may linger through late evening. Skies will also begin to clear from
the north allowing for a bit cooler night tonight with portions of
the inland west seeing temperatures dropping into the low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a trough over the upper Great Lakes
00z Fri with embedded shortwaves in the trough. One is over southern
Lake Michigan, another over the western Dakotas and another over
Nebraska. These shortwaves do not have much moisture to work with
and will go dry for now from Thu night into Sat. Did not make too
many changes to the going forecast overall.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the Pacific
NW 12z Sun with a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes. The trough
moves into the northern Rockies and Northern Plains 12z Mon. A 500
mb ridge will build back into the central plains 12z Tue with the
trough topping the ridge over the northern plains. More troughing
moves into the northern Rockies 12z Wed with a cold front moving
through the area. Temperatures look to stay above normal for this
forecast period. Will have some low chance pops starting on Tue as a
warm front approaches the area and continue these into Wed as a cold
front moves towards the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected at each of the TAF sites
through much of this forecast period. The only exception would be
near IWD this afternoon where shra moving across the area could
briefly lower conditions to MVFR. CMX will be far enough away from
the instability to only see a slight chance of rain showers. Dry air
and high pressure moves in at all TAF sites tonight through Thursday
morning bringing mainly clear skies and NE winds.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 454 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

High pressure, building across the Upper Great Lakes Region later
today into tonight, will linger across Lake Superior into the
upcoming weekend. This will keep winds around or less than 15 kts
into the weeekend.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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