Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 290802
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
402 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
Indiana and a ridge from the wrn plains into nrn Ontario. At the
surface ne winds prevailed between a ridge into nw Ontario and the
low over IN. Although the deeper moisture had departed, radar showed
isold/sct -shra over the n and w portions of the cwa as 850 mb temps
around 5C,,daytime heating, and cyclonic flow with low level
moisture supported the light pcpn.

Tonight, expect that abundant moisture below 850 mb, and 850 mb
temps remaining around 5C (water temps from 11C-15C) will be enough
to sustain some isold -shra into the north and west, downwind from
ene to ne flow off the lake, mainly over the Huron Mountains and
from IWD to Ontonagon. Otherwise, temps will drop into the mid and
upper 40s inland and around low to mid 50s near the Great Lakes.

Thursday, mostly sunny skies over the east half and decreasing
clouds over the west as the sfc ridge builds into the area will
allow temps to climb into the mid 60s west and to near 70 south and
east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Nam a closed 500 mb low over the Ohio Valley with a trough on the
west coast 12z Fri. The closed low heads north into Indiana 12z Sat
and into southern Lake Michigan 12z Sun. Nam brings in some deeper
moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence Sat into the southern
and eastern cwa. GFS and ECMWF show something pretty similar.

Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. Have
the highest pops in the south and eastern cwa and lowest across the
west and north. Did not make too many changes to temperatures either.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low over lower
MI 12Z Sun and a trough in the western U.S. This low with the
associated trough will move into the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon with
a shortwave ridge over the upper Great Lakes. The western U.S.
trough moves into the Rockies 12z Tue. This trough then moves into
the northern and central plains 12z Wed. This trough will move a
cold front through on Wed. Temperatures look to be above normal for
this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 137 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Northeast winds north of departing low pressure system will keep
some lower cigs across the area into early Thu morning. Expect the
more persistent IFR/LIFR cigs to be at IWD where NNE will provide
more of an upslope component to aid stratus formation. Expect MVFR
cigs to persist at least through a portion of the overnight at SAW
in ne flow while VFR conditions are expected at CMX. Conditions
should improve quickly to VFR at IWD and SAW by late Thursday
morning with some diurnal heating/mixing.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 415 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Weakening low pressure will result in 15-25 kt winds late this
afternoon diminishing to less than 20 kts tonight. A general weak
pressure gradient lingering into the weekend should keep east to
northeast winds at 20 kts or less.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JLB



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