Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 271052
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
652 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DRYING BEGAN ON TUE AFTN AND THAT WILL ONLY INCREASE TODAY. STRONG
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
RIDGE FM THE GREAT LAKES TO SCNTRL CANADA WILL ALLOW HUDSON BAY HIGH
TO PERSIST WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. NEGATIVE
TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS OVER
PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL CONTRACT
TO A MORE CLOSED OFF LOW VCNTY OF IOWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. CIRRUS
BLOWING OFF THE WIDESPREAD TSRA MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN BUT
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY. WITH THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND DECAYING SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS MAY GUST OVER 20 MPH MAINLY WEST AND SCNTRL.

COOLEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPS INLAND AND ALSO CLOSER TO LK
MICHIGAN WILL REACH LOW TO MID 50S. VERY DRY AIRMASS IS TIED TO
THIS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE. DWPNTS ON TUE FELL INTO THE TEENS
INLAND EVEN WITH MOST AREAS SEEING OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN LESS THAN 24
HR PRIOR. LOOKING EVEN DRIER TODAY. DWPNTS ON TUE AFTN IN THE SOURCE
AIRMASS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR FELL INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. SOME
AREAS OF CWA SHOULD DROP TO SIMILAR VALUES TODAY. RESULT WILL BE MIN
RH VALUES THIS AFTN DOWN TO 15-20 PCT. DESPITE THESE DRY CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...STILL PROBABLY HAVE AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING AFFECTS ON THE FINE FUELS FROM THE PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURRED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AS UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN OVER SOUTHERN CWA. ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S...COLDEST INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

HUDSON BAY HI PRES WL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON UPR MI
THRU THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WX TO THE AREA. THERE WL BE TWO LO PRES DISTURBANCES OF NOTE
PASSING THRU THE OH RIVER VALLEY/NEAR THE LOWER LKS DURING THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING E THRU AN ACTIVE SRN BRANCH FLOW
OVER THE SRN CONUS...ONE ON THU AND ANOTHER LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THESE LO PRES CENTERS MAY TRACK FAR ENUF N TO PERHAPS BRUSH
THE SCNTRL CWA WITH SOME CLDS/PCPN ESPECIALLY ON THU...THE DRY NE
FLOW OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY HI...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO
BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI...AND CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE UPR LKS
BTWN PERSISTENT DEEP TROF OVER QUEBEC AND THE SRN BRANCH FLOW E OF
TROFFING LINGERING OVER THE SW CONUS FAVOR A PCPN FREE FCST. DID
RETAIN SOME SCHC POPS OVER FAR SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY ON THU.

TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOB NORMAL THRU THE COMING WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NOT FAR FM 0C. OVERNGT LOWS SHOULD SHOW THE GREATEST NEGATIVE
DEPARTURES WITH MOCLR SKIES/DRY AIR SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING/MINS FALLING INTO THE 20S AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
BUT THE DRY AIR/SUNSHINE WL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHARP DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY DURING THE AFTN TO AT LEAST NEAR 60 AWAY FM THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.

DESPITE THE RECENT MDT TO HEAVY RA AND EXPECTED AOB NORMAL TEMPS THRU
THE WEEKEND...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX BEFORE GREENUP
MAY CAUSE FIRE WX ISSUES TO BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE FCST PERIOD WHEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS H85 TEMPS MAY
RECOVER NEAR 10C BY MID NEXT WEEK AND SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/
GREATER EVAPORATION. PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER ENE WINDS WHEN THE
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS SHARPENS BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LO
PRES DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE S MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE DRYING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN AT
KIWD. WILL ALSO SEE FAVORED LAKE BREEZE WIND AT KCMX AND KSAW.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EXPECT ENE WINDS RUNNING UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS TO PREVAIL OVER THE LAKE
THRU THIS COMING WEEKEND ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY. STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES ARE
MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WHERE THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION
WILL FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THE LLVL ENE FLOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC



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