Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 151827
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
227 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather gives way to a brief round of light rain showers
overnight as a cold front moves through. Some snow may mix in at
times.
- Southwest winds turn gusty overnight, particularly across the
Keweenaw.

- A system brings light rain/snow mix and blustery conditions
  tonight into Saturday.
- Below-normal temperatures, continued blustery conditions into
  early next week and accumulating lake effect snow potential
  Saturday night into Monday night.
- Prolonged gale event on Lake Superior starting tonight and lasting
into Sunday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Patchy low stratus across portions of the western and eastern UP are
starting to mix out. A brief period of clear to partly cloudy skies
across the area will be followed up by mid and upper level cloud
cover spreading into the western UP ahead of a shortwave that is
beginning to dig into the Northern Plains this morning. With WAA
amid tightening southerly flow this afternoon, increasing clouds
shouldn`t have much of an impact on expected daytime highs in the
40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Skies are staying sunny across most of the area so far this
afternoon with weak ridging extending from a surface high sprawled
out over the Plains. A deepening surface low is analyzed over
Manitoba, resulting in a turn over to southerly flow over the Great
Lakes. This is helping to keep temperatures quite mild, with most of
hte area well into the 40s already. Expect temperatures to top out
in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area today. Mid and
high level clouds should start to spread into the western UP closer
to sunset.

The surface low continues to track eastward through northern Ontario
tonight, with a trailing cold front extending southward through the
Great Lakes. SW winds pick up ahead of it, gusting to 20 to 30 mph
overnight. Stronger gusts around and even in excess of 40 mph are
possible across the Keweenaw for several hours. This will likely
necessitate the issuance of a wind advisory overnight. The passing
front will also touch off a round of rain showers, beginning by
midnight in the western UP and quickly exiting east into the pre-
dawn hours. Some snow may also mix in at times in the typically
cooler spots, but with most of the area hovering in the mid and
upper 30s for most of the  night, significant snow accumulations are
not expected. Behind the front, chilly WNW flow will result in the
development of light lake effect snow showers by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a rex block on the west coast with a
high in the Pacific NW and a closed 500 mb low over the desert sw
00z Sat. There is also a shortwave near Lake Winnipeg which will dig
southeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat which will help to
broaden a trough across the Great Lakes region 12z Sun into 12z Mon.
850-700 mb q-vector convergence moves in 00z Sat along with deeper
moisture and then moves out 12z Sat before returning with a weak
shortwave again for 12z Sun through 12z Mon. Pcpn starts later this
evening as dry southwest winds keep the lower layers dry. Could be a
potential tonight for strong winds in the Keweenaw briefly and
looked at wind advisory potential, but winds gusts get up briefly
about an hour to almost 45 mph at CMX, but problem is it is a
southwest wind. Southwest winds generally are not that gusty at the
airport, so held off on advisory and will mention in mqt product
for now. LES really does not get going until Sat night as well and
then looks to be a prolonged event.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb rex block in the
western U.S. with a high in the Pacific NW and the closed low in the
desert sw 12z Mon and a deep trough across the eastern half of the
U.S. Pattern changes little 12z Tue with the trough broadening over
the east half of the U.S. The rex block breaks down by 12z Wed in
the western U.S. with the ridge becoming weaker and the trough
starting to eject out of the desert sw. This trough then moves into
the southern Rockies 12z Thu and into the lower Mississippi Valley
12z Fri. Upper flow over the upper Great Lakes this forecast period
goes from NW to SE at the beginning to a zonal west to east flow by
12z Fri. Temperatures stay at or below normal for this forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR is expected at all terminals through the TAF period with mainly
clear skies so far this afternoon. A low pressure system will be
passing through northern Ontario through the TAF period, which will
create gusty wind conditions at all TAF sites tonight. A period of
LLWS is expected at CMX, and while it is also possible at IWD and
SAW, potential was too low to include for this issuance. The passing
system will produce a brief period of -SHRA at CMX with VCSH also
possible at SAW. Lake effect -SHSN will be possible at CMX into
tomorrow morning, and while this could lead to brief MVFR
restrictions, forecast confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Winds quickly increase today to 30 knots by late afternoon out of
the southwest. Then a prolonged gale warning event sets up starting
tonight with southwest gales to 45 knots possible with the strongest
winds between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw. The wind becomes
westerly late tonight and northwest on Saturday. As colder and more
unstable conditions move in behind the clipper on Saturday, gales to
35 knots can be expected.

Winds come down below gales late Sun night into Monday as a high
pressure ridge begins to build in from the west. Unstable conditions
remain into the early part of next week, but winds should diminish
to 20 kts or less for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure and
warmer conditions move over the area.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 2 AM EDT
     /1 AM CDT/ Monday for LSZ240>244-263-264.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243-
     244.

  Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ245>251.

  Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...07


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