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000
FXUS63 KMQT 081719
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1219 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
INTO WISCONSIN HAS RESULTED IN VERY COLD TEMPS (5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO)
EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH WIND ACCOMPANYING THESE COLD TEMPS SO WENT AHEAD
AND CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR CWA.
WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS STILL IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
ERN SHORELINE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN CONVERGENT LOW-LVL
WESTERLY FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
KEWEENAW RECEIVED AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF LES OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...ANY REMAINING LES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW
AND THE SHORELINES OF THE ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK SW IN
THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN. A BROAD AREA OF 275K-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN CONUS TROF WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM MN/WI INTO UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH...THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY DELAY
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS BY 00Z WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS WITH
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG LAKE MI CLOSER TO BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECT CONV.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
FORCING IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AND ASSOC 700-600 MB FGEN
RESPONSE ALONG WITH NOTED MINIMAL SLANTWISE INSTABILITY/NEGATIVE EPV
OFF CROSS SECTIONS COULD RESULT IN HEAVIER BANDED SNOW OVER SE
COUNTIES. ENHANCEMENT TO SYSTEM SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND LK MICHIGAN WITH ESE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT
/E WINDS IN LOW-LEVELS WITH 8H TEMPS AROUND -12C AND LK MICHIGAN
WATER TEMPS AROUND +5C. BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT GENERAL 1-3" OF
SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH MIXING RATIOS 1-2G/KG AND WITH 0.15-0.20 AVERAGED
MODEL QPF USING SLR/S AROUND 18:1. BASED ON SOUNDINGS...HIGHER SLR/S
SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO BEST LIFT OCCURING ABV DGZ. COULD SEE ANOTHER
1-2 OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON TOP OF SYSTEM SNOW PUSHING TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS INTO LOW END ADVISORY CATEGORY WITH 4-5 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SE AND ERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER WEST GENERALLY EXPECT NO
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA WILL BRING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT LOCATIONS THAT SAW PLENTY THE LAST FEW
DAYS AS W TO WNW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY CONTINUOUS. A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY REAL SHOT OF VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE
DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE
MAIN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.

THE NEXT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
CWA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. H8 TEMPS FALLING
TO -21 TO -23C BY THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
RISING TO 7KFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT DOMINATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AFFECTING NORTHERN
HOUGHTON AND SOUTHERN KEWEENAW COUNTIES. BLUSTERY WEST WINDS OF
20-30MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS POOR...BUT IF
THE BAND REMAINS ANCHORED IN ONE AREA FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THIS
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH POSSIBLE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON
AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...SO BLOWING SNOW
WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM. OVERALL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
EVENING...WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE BAND REMAINS IN PLACE.
THROUGH...WITH A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE ABOVE-SFC WINDS AHEAD OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE BAND WILL LIKELY
WAVER SOMEWHAT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SUFFICIENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD LEADS TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE GOING FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT OTHER THAN MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
QPF. THE SECOND OF MULTIPLE WAVES ON THE DEEP TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
CROSS UPPER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SO ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT LES OFF ON THE KEWEENAW FOR
AT LEAST A SHORT TIME FRAME TUESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT HAVE A HIGH COMPONENT OF
VARIABILITY WITH THEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA WHILE HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF TUESDAYS SYSTEM FILTER INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH
COLDEST TEMPS TO AROUND -10F INTERIOR CENTRAL AS THAT AREA LOOKS TO
HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF UNINTERRUPTED COOLING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM...THIS TIME WITH H8 TEMPS PUSHING
-25C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS WEST ALONG THE
WI BORDER FAIL TO GET ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS TO -30F
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTERIOR WEST. WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN THROUGH THIS
STRETCH...ONLY THIS TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LES TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE KEWEENAW AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SETUP LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DOMINATE BAND
AFFECTING BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUICKLY AT THIS
POINT...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING DOWN ONE MORE ARCTIC AIR MASS WHILE
THE GFS TRENDS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. EITHER WAY...A BRIEF ROUND
OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A CONSENSUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

A DISTURBANCE AND WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FROM WI
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD NE TO ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEGINNING FIRST AT
KIWD. WITH KSAW CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THERE IN THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT OR MON MORNING AT
IWD AND SAW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH LIFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT CMX BY
MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES OF GALES. THE FIRST WILL PASS
SOUTHEAST OF UPPER MI MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A
DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ012-013.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ264>267.

  GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ263.

  GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ244-245.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER