Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250831
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THERE IS CURRENTLY A SFC RIDGE OVER THE CWA EXTENDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE FIGHTING OFF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PORTION OT THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A 500MB
RIDGE...THE AXIS OF WHICH IS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO MANITOBA.
A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL MOVE
ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS HAVE ONLY
SEEN ONE OR TWO SFC OBS WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...ALTHOUGH VIS REMAINED
10SM AND CIGS WERE AROUND 10KFT WITH THE SHOWERS.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE DAY WHILE BECOMING MORE
CONFINED TO THE FAR ERN/NRN CWA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WRN
CWA THROUGH THE DAY SLOWLY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH WHILE WAA INCREASES. STILL DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN LOW END
CHANCE POPS. WITH THE LINGERING DRY AIR OVER THE E...KEEP THEM DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

THE CONTINUALLY WEAKENING RIDGE PUSHES COMPLETELY E OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
CWA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS WEEKEND WL BRING UNSETTLED WX A AS DEEP CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE
PAC NW MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA ON FRI/SAT AND THEN THRU THE UPR
LKS ON SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WNW FLOW ALF BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER NRN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. MUCH COOLER AIR WL
INVADE THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DIGGING SHRTWV AMPLIFIES THE QUEBEC TROF INTO ALL OF ERN
NAMERICA.

FRI NIGHT/SAT...CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURANCE
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG DEEP LYR FORCING ARE FCST TO BE REMAIN WELL
UPSTREAM...A GOOD NUMBER OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
SHRTWV/AXIS OF DPVA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVING ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
FRI EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTER AIR/PWAT NEAR 1.5
INCH IN THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN LOWER MSLP IN THE PLAINS AND HI PRES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...SHOWER/TS CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
LATER FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS INCOMING SHRTWV/BAND OF FORCING ARRIVE.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS FORCING COINCIDING WITH SOME DRYING
ALF... WITH OVERALL QPF RATHER LIMITED. WL RETAIN FLAVOR OF GOING
FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING CHC POPS. THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE DRYING ALF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV/AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL DIMINISH LINGERING POPS W-E ON SAT AFTN. BUT
DAYTIME HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYING ON SAT AFTN MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS/TS...MAINLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO
DEPARTING MSTR AND WHERE LK BREEZE CNVGC COULD INCRS THE CHC FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS ON SAT AWAY FM LK MODERATION ARE LIKELY TO RISE AT
LEAST CLOSE TO 80 WITH SOME AFTN SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
16-17C OVER THE W AT 00Z SUN.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS/SOME TS W-E
LATER SAT NGT AS CLOSED LO SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC APRCH UPR MI. THE MOST
WDSPRD SHOWERS WL OCCUR ON SUN MRNG AS UPR LO TRACKS ACRS NRN WI...
PLACING UPR MI ON THE FAVORED CYC SIDE OF THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE
AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THESE POPS WL
DIMINISH NW-SE SUN AFTN/EVNG WITH ARRIVAL DNVA/DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV DEPARTING TO THE SE THRU LOWER MI.
WITH A N FLOW DVLPG OVER THE AREA OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS ON SUN AS
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO TRACKS INTO LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...TEMPS
OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LK ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL THRU THE 50S IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT LO
CLDS. H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO 4-6C BY 12Z MON WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S AT MANY PLACES ON SUN NGT.

MON THRU THU...THE UPR LKS WL BE UNDER A NNW FLOW ALF BTWN THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ARND CLOSED LO IN
QUEBEC AND PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE W...RESULTING IN WELL BLO
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 4-6C ON MON
MRNG AND LLVL N WINDS ADVECT LK SUP COOLED AIR ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ARND 12C BY MID WEEK...OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BLO NORMAL. ANOTHER CONCERN ON EACH OF THE DAYS WL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
LARGER SCALE CYC NNW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS
WL BE ON TUE AND WED AS SEVERAL OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC DRIFTING CLOSER TO UPR MI AS A STRONGER SHRTWV
DIGS SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND THE CUTOFF AND SLOWLY MODERATING SFC-H85
TEMPS RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND PUT PROB30 INTO ALL SITES THEN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA
UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
TUE AND BACK TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS





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