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000
FXUS63 KMQT 050001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
701 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

SHORTWAVE OVER NRN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO BRUSH NE LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT ON ITS WAY INTO SRN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY EAST OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO IN EFFECT DRIVE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE NOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT IN N-NE FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING SFC HIGH AS LAKE IS
COMPLETELY FROZEN OVER FOR MOST PART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE
SW FCST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE
DAKOTAS AND LOWER MIDWEST. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF
BUILDING SFC HIGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE
NIGHT AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING TOO MUCH. BUT ON THE OTHER
HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE
E). WITH LOW-LEVEL N-NE WINDS ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR FROM
ONTARIO ACROSS NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN DRYNESS OF COLUMN. ALTHOUGH FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY LOW
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO...TEMPS IN TRADITIONAL
COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY CLEAR AND
WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FM -15C TO -20C EARLY
MORNING TO AROUND -12C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO 875
MB WEST TO AROUND 900MB EAST WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 20S WEST TO MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE ALONG
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING NORTH
DAKOTA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN 500MB UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LAGS TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES MORE IN SYNC WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN OVER ONTARIO AND NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE CLOSER TO THE
LOW...THEREFORE...KEEPING THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND FORCING TO SPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A FEW TOTALS APPROACHING 4 INCHES
OVER THEN NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD MENTIONED
WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING FROM AROUND -10C TO -15C WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO -2C TO 0C
BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE 20S
WITH A FEW LOW 30S POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING THE OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TREND
GOING. MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO REMAIN LIMITED...THEREFORE
THE ONLY REAL IMPACT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE GFS TRIES TO WRAP IN A
FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE GEM/EC ONLY
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS LENDS MORE SUPPORT TO KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE U.P.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE...LENDING BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE GFS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
EC PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.P. AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. EVEN WITH THE DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MODELS IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH WARMER AIR SHOULD BE WORKING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD MAY LINGER AT SAW THIS
EVENING UNDER AN INVERSION BASED AT 3K-4K FT.A NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE
COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD MINIMIZE OR ELIMINATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
STRATOCU FORMATION UNDER DEVELOPING NE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES DOMINATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. THE TROF WILL CROSS THE
UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS