Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 201738
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1238 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 453 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

Light freezing drizzle continues early this morning, occasionally
mixing with snow mainly over the W. Overall expect precip intensity
to diminish, with the exception of a period this morning when a
shortwave moves through the area. Showers and even some
thunderstorms  over SW WI have resulted from the shortwave, and
those are expected to diminish some while moving toward the area.
Warmer mid level air with the shortwave should over run the cold
near surface air over portions of central Upper Michigan to provide
a brief period of sleet this morning, but doesn`t look like
significant amounts. Through this morning, expect up to another
0.10 inches of ice accumulation, greatest N-central and E.

After the shortwave moves through, precipitation will significantly
reduce across most of the area, so decided to cut the advisories
short to 18Z today over all but Luce County.

Beyond that, some very light and insignificant lake effect snow is
possible in the NW wind snowbelts of the western U.P. tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U.S.
and a strong 500 mb ridge over the sern U.S. 12z Wed. The trough in
the western U.S. tries to advance eastward, but the shortwaves that
eject out of it get sheared out as the ridge remains over the sern
U.S. this forecast period. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and some
deeper moisture arrives Thu night. Looks pretty quiet until Thu
night when next system arrives. Did not make too many changes to the
going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the western
U.S. 12z Fri extending up into the Canadian Prairies and a 500 mb
ridge across the sern U.S. The trough ejects into the southern
Rockies 12z Sat and into the Great Lakes Sat night. More troughing
moves into the area 12z Mon into Mon night. Temperatures stay above
normal for this forecast period. System moves out Fri with another
coming in Sat night and another on Mon.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

Light freezing drizzle with its accompanying LIFR to IFR ceilings
and visibilities continue this afternoon across all terminals.
Expect this trend to continue through the afternoon hours, before
precipitation gradually transitions over to light snow at KCMX and
KIWD later this afternoon/evening. Tonight, as a cold front pushes
across the area, breezy west-northwesterly winds will fill in behind
the front. There is the potential we could see some light snow
showers along this front, especially at the western terminals as the
colder air will take advantage of some open waters for light lake
effect. By Wednesday, ceilings will improve into at least the high-
end MVFR category, with VFR visibilities expected.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 453 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

winds are expected to stay below gales through the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon
     for MIZ001>006-009>014-084-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ007.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...Titus



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