Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280746
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
346 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES AS A DECAYING MID-LEVEL
LOW MEANDERS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. OTHER THAN
HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE CWA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIP ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO MAINLY
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA BY THU AFTERNOON. BUT SEEING HOW PRECIP IS
DECAYING ACROSS MN AND PORTIONS OF WI TODAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FORM THE NE...CONDITIONS FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THU. THOUGH...VIRGA WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES
REACHING THE GROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

HUDSON BAY HI PRES WL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON UPR MI INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX TO THE AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST MON. THERE WL BE A LO PRES DVLPG OVER THE PLAINS ON
SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF A SRN BRANCH
UPR TROF OVER THE SW CONUS. BUT SINCE THIS SHRTWV/SFC LO WL
ENCOUNTER A CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF ON THE SW FLANK OF PERSISTENT NRN
BRANCH TROFFING OVER QUEBEC...THE LO PRES/ACCOMPANYING DEEP MSTR AND
PCPN WL BE SHUNTED TO THE S AS THE SHRTWV SHEARS OUT THRU THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. MANY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A PAIR OF SHRTWVS
IN THE NRN BRANCH NW FLOW SLIDING SE JUST TO THE E OF THE UPR LKS
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DRYNESS OF LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NE FLOW OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TO BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI...SHOULD LIMIT THE IMPACT TO JUST
SOME CLDS OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOB NORMAL THRU THE COMING WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST FM ABOUT 0C TO A FEW DEGREES BLO 0C. EARLY MRNG LOWS WL DIP TO
ARND 30 AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON SAT THRU MON WITH DRY
AIR DOMINATING AND FAVORING GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE WL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHARP DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY DURING THE
AFTN TO AT LEAST NEAR 60 WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE AND AWAY FM
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.

IN THE LONGER TERM...TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES DRIFTS FARTHER E TOWARD THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND UPR MI BECOMES DOMINATED BY A WSW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK
OF A RDG AXIS EXTENDING SWWD FM THAT HI TO ANOTHER HI PRES CENTER
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO AS HI AS 8C LATE MON INTO TUE. BUT ANY WARMUP IS
LIKELY TO BE BRIEF AS THE UPR TROF OVER QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN AND
STRENGTHEN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE UPR LKS NEXT WEEK. SHRTWVS
DROPPING THRU THIS NW FLOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FROPAS WL BRING SOME
COOLER WX ALONG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE UPR LKS
AS EARLY AS TUE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AND ABSENCE OF
MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT POPS TO THE LO CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME.

DESPITE THE RECENT MDT TO HEAVY RA AND EXPECTED AOB NORMAL TEMPS
THRU THE WEEKEND...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX BEFORE
GREENUP MAY CAUSE FIRE WX ISSUES TO BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE EXPECTED BRIEF WARMUP. SOME OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT DVLPG FOR A TIME BEFORE
THE INITIAL COLD FROPA ON TUE. IF THE STRONGER WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FNT OCCURS DURING DAYTIME WARMING/MIXING...GUSTY WINDS/LO RH COULD
HEIGHTEN FIRE WX ISSUES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. MARGINAL
LLWS MAY OCCUR AT IWD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 30
KTS AT 1 KFT. DAYTIME MIXING AND ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE MAY RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS DRIFTING E THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/
FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THRU THIS WEEKEND. THIS PRES PATTERN FAVORS
CONTINUED NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THE NE
FLOW...TODAY AND PERHAPS SAT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SHARPEST. AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC



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