Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
854
FXUS63 KMQT 221753
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
153 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 503 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from
the srn portion of Hudson Bay through nw Ontario to the Upper
Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough from ne MN into nw WI
supported the lingering band of shra and isold tsra through ern Lake
Superior and cntrl Upper Michigan. At the surface, a cold front
extended through the cntrl U.P. from low pressure over ern Lake
Superior.

Today, after the shrtwv and associated showers move out early today,
expect dry conditions with decreasing clouds into the early
afternoon. However, another upstream shrtwv over Manitoba along with
daytime heating may support some isold -shra into the wrn cwa by mid
to late afternoon. With gusty nw winds temps will climb into the
upper 60s with some lower 70s over the south. The brisk wnw flow
will also bring high enough waves into Alger county for a high swim
risk.

Tonight, a surface trough or secondary cold front moving into the
area with winds veering from wnw to nnw will bring addition
potential for -shra/-dz, especially for locations favored by upslope
flow off of Lake Superior as 850 mb temps drop to around 3C. Even
with lingering clouds and wind, temps over the interior west should
drop off into the mid and upper 40s while readings in the lower to
mid 50s prevail closer to the Great Lakes and over the east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

Overall quiet weather is expected to prevail through the end of the
work week, and possibly through much of the weekend. Temperatures
will start off around 10 to 15 degrees below normal as cold air
advection drops south across the region on Wednesday; however,
expect temperatures to gradually modify back to near normal by this
weekend. While a fairly potent shortwave is progged to dig across
the Upper Great Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday, forecast
soundings show ample dry air across the region which should limit
any development of shower activity. The reinforcing shot of drier
Canadian air and ample radiational cooling on Wednesday night will
allow overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s across the interior
west, which will result in areas of patchy frost. Thursday through
the beginning of the weekend, surface high pressure will park across
the Upper Great Lakes leading to mostly clear skies and with no
precipitation expected.

This weekend, shortwave activity will dig across the Upper
Mississippi Valley increasing cloud cover from west to east by
Sunday. Models have backed off on the precipitation tracking west to
east across the area, with Saturday looking mostly dry and minimal
chances for precipitation through Sunday. Early next week, high
pressure looks like it will hold on; however, with the shortwave
finally making its way over the Upper Great Lakes region, there will
be a small chance for showers.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 151 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

Conditions will continue to improve, but winds will remain gusty
until late this evening. A trough moves through tonight, turning
winds out of the N to NNW, which should bring CIGs down some mainly
at KIWD and KSAW. Any lowered conditions will improve Wed morning.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 503 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

A tight pres gradient between low pressure lifting northeast from
Lake Superior and high pressure building toward the area from the
northern plains will result in wnw winds to 30 knots this afternoon
into this evening and a few gale force gusts over the eastern Lake.
Winds will veer to the nnw tonight behind a trough with winds
remaining in the 20-30 knot range through Wednesday. The winds will
then diminish Wed night as high pressure builds into the area and
remain below 20 knots for the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...Titus
MARINE...JLB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.