Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 170450
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1250 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

BUSY SHORT TERM SHIFT AS NEW MODEL RUNS LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SD/NE/IA BORDERS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THU.

WITH LITTLE LASTING UPPER JET SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE
TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UP THE W SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE W TONIGHT INTO THU...BUT WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT
PRECIP EVEN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS FILLS.

CURRENTLY...MODERATE SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SWRN CWA...WHICH IS
BEING FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID LEVEL /600-700MB/ FGEN.
THIS PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED FORCING STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
INTO SERN SD WHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. DRIER AIR
AND LIMITED FORCING IS LEAVING AREAS S OF THIS LINE OVER CENTRAL AND
SRN WI DRY /OR AT LEAST MOSTLY DRY/. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO
WCENTRAL WI BY 12Z THU...THE BEST BAND OF LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL SLIDE
INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRECIP
MINIMUM MOVES N BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CWA /MOSTLY THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA/. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE SCENTRAL CWA THU
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WRN CWA...BUT A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WILL BE FORCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 800-700MB FGEN/DEFORMATION. OVERALL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST INCLUDED SLOWING DOWN THE ENDING OF PRECIP THU AND
INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AND
INTO THU OVER THE ERN CWA. DID NOT CHANGE PRECIP AMOUNTS ALL THAT
MUCH...BUT DID SHARPEN UP THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WRN CWA. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED THE HEADLINES
TO 18Z THU.

MIXED PRECIP BECOMES AN ISSUE THU AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE...BUT THIS HAPPENS TOWARD THE END OF PRECIP SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN
TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S
EAST. SOME PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE
-10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE
30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S S.
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU NIGHT WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED
QUICKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THIS SHRTWV
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDGG...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM NE IOWA TO THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...SNOW...MDT
TO HVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HRS. KIWD AND KCMX SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE PERSISTENT
HEAVIER SNOW. AT KIWD...THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR. HOWEVER...WITH A
DOWNSLOPE E TO SE WIND...ANY PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD DAYBREAK...A PREVAILING PERIOD OF
LIFR/HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY AT KIWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING NE. AT KCMX...LIFR CONDITIONS
AND PERHAPS OCNL VLIFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE MORNING. KSAW WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR...SO SNOW WILL NOT BE PESISTENTLY AS HVY
AS AT THE WRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
WORK TO HOLD IFR CIGS IN PLACE THRU THE NIGHT EVEN IF SNOW
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH W TO E LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP AT KIWD THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KTS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ006-012-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS






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